08/30/2011 10:49PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Aug. 31, Race 11

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Race 11
6 Furlongs
Maiden Claiming ($35,000)
2-year-olds (New York Breds)
Purse $25,000

Analysis:
5. IN MY EYES (Lion Heart - Getsa, by Theatrical, March 18, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-10, 1.3M, 3-3 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 26-194 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (10-72, 14%, $1.49 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 6 juvenile debut winners, 2 at this meet).  The dam was a route winner in the mud (1-1, 10K) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters).  In My Eyes is a half-brother to stakes-placed King of Chicago (8-47, 130K, 0-3 at two, 1-10 sprinting). This is the family of multiple juvenile Grade 1 winner Tasso (9-23, 1.2M, 5-7 at two, 2-5 sprinting). The August 22 workout went .01 slower than trainer Michael Matz' juvenile Le Grand Artiste (entered in today's seventh race). The July 7 workout matches Matz's 3-year-old filly Proudroad to Glory (finished fifth in $16,000 starter handicap on grass at Parx on August 1 with 60 Beyer; has 37 Beyer on dirt). Matz is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Matz is 3-18 (17%, $5.11 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

9. PURE GRIT (Pure Prize - Brassy Kitten, by Dixie Brass, March 14, 2009) is by a Grade 2 route winner (5-17, 475K, 1-3 at two, 0-4 sprinting) that is 81-463 (17%) with juveniles. The dam was placed (0-18, 54K, 0-3 at two, 0-12 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 1-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter That's Rich (6-26, 196K, 1-2 at two, 6-24 sprinting). Trainer Scott Schwartz is 3-34 (9%, $2.03 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (2-5, 40%, $12.48 ROI at Saratoga). Slowly improving, but may need some pace to work with.

3. RICO CAPOTE (Disco Rico - Dr. Capote, by Capote, May 14, 2009) is by a Grade 3 sprint winner (9-17, 532K, 2-3 at two, 9-17 sprinting) that is 25-183 (14%) with juveniles.  The dam was placed sprinting at two (0-1, 4K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with juveniles, 2-3 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Dr Rico (5-33, 212K, 1-5 at two, 1-9 sprinting), multiple stakes-winning sprinter Dance Gal Dance (6-9, 273K, 2-2 at two, 6-9 sprinting), stakes-placed router Judge Margaret (7-33, 146K, 0-5 at two, 2-9 sprinting) and stakes-placed router Dr Disco (3-7, 101K, 1-2 at two, 3-5 sprinting). Trainer Bruce Brown is 1-6 (17%, $0.70 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga). Didn't break alertly in career debut and can do better in this weaker spot.

10. SHANE ROARS (Roaring Fever - Ali Wee, by Key Contender, February 16, 2009) is by a stakes-winner (4-19, 219K, 1-4 at two, 3-9 sprinting) that is 14-148 (9%) with juveniles. The dam was a sprint winner in the slop (1-6, 45K, 1-4 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 4 runners (0-4 with 2yos, 1-4 with sprinters). The third dam is multiple stakes-placed Eighty Lady (2-22, 22K, 1-6 at two). Trainer Dominic Galluscio is 1-2 (50%, $3.05 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding blinkers in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints. Faltered in career debut, but may show more interest with blinkers.

1. HOWIE AND THE CAT (Tale of the Cat - Bella Madame, by Dancing Groom, February 11, 2009, $30,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (5-9, 360K, 1-3 sprinting) that is 215-1148 (19%) with juveniles.  The dam was a Group 1 turf winner in Chile (3-15, 40K, 0-1 at two) and has foaled 4 winners from 5 runners (1-4 with juveniles, 2-5 with sprinters).  Howie and the Cat is a half-brother to stakes-placed Southern (2-8, 77K, 1-4 at two, 1-5 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to Group 1-placed (Chile) La Dona and stakes-placed (Chile) Genitor (7-49, 41K, 0-6 at two).  The dam is a full sister to Group 2-placed (Chile) Dancing in Love (6-53, 4K, 1-4 at two). Trainer Michael Miceli is 1-9 (11%, $6.00 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Has had tough trips in both lifetime starts, but has yet to change leads in the stretch.

7. DEFERLONG (Defer - Miriam's Song, by Peterhof, May 1, 2009, $1,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling, $12,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the April auction.  He is by a juvenile Grade 3 winner (4-18, 260K, 2-3 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 1-3 (33%) with juveniles from his first crop of 2011. The dam was a sprint winner (6-28, 93K, 1-5 at two, 6-27 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 1-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 router Sabertooth (8-32, 322K, 6-17 sprinting) and juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Smilodon (5-27, 18K, 0-3 at two, 5-26 sprinting).  Trainer Merrill Scherer is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints.  Broke slowly and rushed to the lead in his career debut before understandably weakening.  Adds Lasix for this and could be tough if allowed to control things on the front end.

6. U OUGHT TO KNOW (Utopia - Brassy Shirley, by Dixie Brass, February 20, 2009, $14,000 RNA New York Mixed October 2009, $7,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, $12,000 RNA OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.4 prior to the April auction.  He is by a multiple Group 1 winner in Japan (9-34, 4.9M, 3-4 at two, 2-3 sprinting) that is 0-13 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $30,000 yearling and $15,000 juvenile, was a sprint winner (2-21, 46K, 0-3 at two, 2-21 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (0-0 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed turfer Broadway Snowman (5-26, 204K). Trainer Stanley Hough is 0-2 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints. Hough is 0-1 with all debut runners in 2011.

8. AMBIT (Belong to Me - Flying Nightengale, by Clever Trick, May 13, 2009, Withdrawn New York Mixed October weanling, $5,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (7-16, 261K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 7-14 sprinting) that is 35-321 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (3-31, 10%, $1.28 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older winner at this meet). The Belong to Me - Clever Trick breeding 'nick' has produced multiple Grade 3 turf winner Ocean Drive (9-21, 803K, 3-4 at two, won debut). The dam, a $115,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 3 winners from 5 runners (3-4 with 2yos, 3-5 with sprinters).  Ambit is a full brother to multiple stakes-winner Fly to Me (11-31, 339K, 2-6 at two, 4-16 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Doc D (6-33, 304K, 1-2 sprinting) and stakes-winning router Catman Running (5-11, 126K, 1-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting). The August 24 workout went .03 faster than uncoupled stablemate Cat Man Fu.  Trainer Gary Contessa is 1-16 (6%, $0.36 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-3 at Saratoga).  Contessa is 3-28 (10%, $1.53 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

11. CAT MAN FU (Fusaichi Pegasus - My Kitty, by Catienus, May 7, 2009, $17,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-9. 1.9M, 0-1 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 24-243 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (2-32, 6%, $1.49 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners). The dam, a $15,000 yearling and $40,000 juvenile, was a juvenile stakes-winning router (2-18, 177K, 2-9 at two, 0-6 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The second dam is multiple stakes-placed Private Stash (6-25, 90K, 1-6 sprinting). The August 24 workout went .03 slower than uncoupled stablemate Ambit. Trainer Gary Contessa is 1-16 (6%, $0.36 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-3 at Saratoga).  Contessa is 3-28 (10%, $1.53 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

4. THE SNICKERS KID (Disco Rico - Nicky's Love, by Fort Chaffee, February 18, 2009) is by a Grade 3 sprint winner (9-17, 532K, 2-3 at two, 9-17 sprinting) that is 7-60 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (1-12, 8%, $0.73 ROI with all debut runners in 2011).  The dam, a $10,000 yearling and $35,000 juvenile, was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-0 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed Oakhurst (16-82, 288K, 2-6 at two, 9-46 sprinting), multiple Grade 2 winner During (6-22, 822K, 1-5 sprinting) and stakes-placed turfer Dynadonna (5-26, 64K, 0-2 at two, 2-7 sprinting). Trainer Phil Serpe is 1-6 (17%, $4.63 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (1-5, 20%, $5.56 ROI at Saratoga).  Serpe is 1-10 (10%, $7.60 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. UNGUIDED MISSILE (Golden Missile - Runaway Tiger, by Runaway Groom, April 18, 2009) is by a Grade 1 route winner (7-25, 2.1m, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) that is 15-202 (7%) with juvenile debut runners (1-18, 6%, $0.49 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The dam was a multiple stakes-winning sprinter (11-30, 181K, 11-30 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 2-2 with sprinters). The second dam is juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Toby's Tiger (9-20, 97K, 2-5 at two, 9-20 sprinting).  Trainer Peter Gulyas is 2-7 (29%, $2.74 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints. Gulyas is 4-14 (28%, $3.63 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2010.

Selections:
1. In My Eyes
2. Pure Grit
3. Rico Capote

The Play:
In My Eyes to Win at 9-2 odds or greater

* Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 62-13-30 (-$20.90)