08/29/2011 10:15AM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Aug. 29, Race 6

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Race 6
5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight (New York Breds)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $40,000

Analysis:

1. STOCK FUND (Stonesider - Stock Tip, by Thunder Gulch, February 4, 2009) is by a juvenile debut sprint winner (1-1, 25K, 1-1 at two) that is 1-22 (5%) with juveniles and 0-1 with turfers from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $200,000 yearling, was a turf winner (1-5, 31K, 0-1 at two, 1-4 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers). This is the female family of Grade 1 winners Upper Nile (6-19, 186K, 2-6 at two) and De La Rose (11-26, 544K, 3-8 at two). Trainer Carlos Martin is 1-3 (33%, $1.29 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding blinkers on turf (1-2, 50%, $1.95 ROI at Saratoga). Broke well in debut, but was soon outsprinted to midpack. Was slightly shuffled along the inside before splitting horses on the far turn. Altered course to the outside in midstretch and finished well behind promising winner.

4. DARN THAT TRIP (Trippi - Twirl, by Darn That Alarm, January 25, 2009, $27,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling) is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (7-14, 666K) that is 155-858 (18%) with juveniles and 19-229 (8%) with first-turf runners. The dam was a stakes-placed router at two (1-5, 60K, 1-5 at two) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (0-4 with juveniles, 0-0 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Chasseresse (5-38, 153K, 1-8 at two, 0-6 on turf) and stakes-placed router Heir D' Twine (7-49, 190K, 1-3 at two, 0-4 on turf). Trainer Jim Ryerson is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf in statebred maiden special weight sprints. Willing to excuse wide effort over muddy track in debut.

7. CLEVER SPIRIT (Smarty Jones - Unbridled Valor, by Unbridled, May 7, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-9, 7.6M, 2-2 at two) that is 28-164 (17%) with juveniles and 15-89 (17%) with first-turfers. The dam, a $375,000 yearling, was a route winner (1-8, 35K, 0-2 at two, 0-1 on turf) and has foaled 3 winners from 5 runners (2-4 with juveniles, 0-1 with turfers). The dam is a three-quarter sister to stakes-winning turfer Unbridled Danz (3-4, 81K, 3-4 on turf, first-turf winner). The August 18 workout matches trainer Ramon Hernandez' juvenile filly Hall of Flame (35 Beyer on dirt, entered in today's fifth race). Trainer Ramon Hernandez is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf in statebred maiden special weight sprints. There is some turf pedigree here and Clever Spirit didn't break very well in her debut on dirt.

2. BARREL OF JOY (Disco Rico - Wide Barrel, by Broad Brush, March 22, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (9-17, 532K, 2-3 at two) that is 25-183 (14%) with juveniles and 47-333 (14%) with turfers. The dam was a turf winner (1-8, 45K, 1-4 on turf) and has foaled 5 winners from 6 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 1-4 with turfers. Barrel of Joy is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Love Abroad (4-36, 265K, 0-3 on turf). This is the female family of Grade winner Firm Stance (7-17, 443K, 2-4 at two, 1-3 on turf). Trainer John Hertler is 1-4 (25%, $3.00 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Showed speed in turf debut and looms a forward factor once again.

1a. MANERO (Disco Rico - Gracefully Done, by Deputy Commander, March 13, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (9-17, 532K, 2-3 at two) that is 7-60 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (1-12, 8%, $0.73 ROI with all debut runners in 2011) and 6-73 (8%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $20,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-6, 4K, 0-5 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, debut winner, 0-2 with turfers). The third dam is Grade 1 winner Dawn's Curtsey (5-28, 364K, 1-2 at two, 4-21 on turf). Trainer Phil Serpe is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints (0-3 at Saratoga). Serpe is 1-10 (10%, $7.60 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

5. CASTLES BURNING (Hook and Ladder - One Wise Cowgirl, by Wiseman's Ferry, April 12, 2009, $2,000 OBS Winter short yearling, Withdrawn OBS Spring April juvenile, Withdrawn OBS Open June juvenile) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (6-19, 388K, 1-1 at two) that is 43-372 (12%) with juveniles and 1-59 (2%) with first-turfers. The dam was unraced and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter North Beach Condo (3-22, 59K, 2-3 at two). Trainer David Fawkes is 1-2 (50%, $10.10 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf in maiden special weight sprints. Retains Dominguez after breaking slowly from tough inside post in debut.

8. REACH FOR A PEACH (One Nice Cat - Reach, by Dynaformer, April 13, 2009) is by a stakes-winner (4-28, 163K, 0-3 at two, 1-7 on turf) that is 1-26 (4%) with juvenile debut runners and 0-13 with first-turf runners. The dam was a winner (2-9, 53K, 1-4 at two, 1-4 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 3 winners from 5 runners (2-4 with juveniles, 2-3 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile Map (2-13, 101K, 1-5 at two, 0-4 on turf). Trainer Chris Englehart is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles on turf.

3. PRINCESS PHOEBE (Defer - Nick's Honor, by Jump Start, February 22, 2009) is by a juvenile Grade 3 winner (4-18, 260K, 2-3 at two, 2-11 on turf) that is 0-2 with juveniles and 0-0 with first-turfers from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $40,000 weanling and $45,000 yearling, was unraced and this is her first foal. The second dam was stakes-placed sprinter Gaye's Express (1-9, 13K, 0-1 at two). Trainer Eric Reed is 1-1 (100%, $29.40 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf in maiden special weight sprints. Didn't have easy trip in career debut and may move forward a bit on grass.

6. SWEET GINGER (Greeley's Galaxy - Schemer, by Concern, April 14, 2009) is by a Grade 2 route winner (4-14, 446K) that is 6-76 (8%) with juveniles and 1-12 (8%) with first-turfers. The dam was multiple stakes-placed (5-30, 245K, 1-6 at two, 1-2 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 0 winners from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed No Bad Habits (10-75, 469K, 1-2 at two, 1-6 on turf),juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Baxter (2-24, 132K, 2-4 at two, 0-4 on turf) and stakes-placed sprinter Good Habits (1-5, 44K, 0-1 on turf). Trainer John Hertler is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf in statebred maiden special weight sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Must improve off dull dirt debut at long odds.

10. PRIMED FOR SUCCESS (Prime Timber - Afleet Closer, by Afleet, March 20, 2009) is by a Grade 2 route winner (4-17, 621K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 2-5 sprinting) that is 11-80 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (1-5, 20%, $0.58 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The dam, a $33,000 weanling and $30,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (1-9, 5K, 1-5 sprinting) and has foaled 10 winners from 10 runners (7-9 with 2yos, 1 debut winner, 8-10 with sprinters). Primed for Success is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Diablo's Closer (3-17, 91K, 2-6 at two, 3-14 sprinting), Puerto Rican stakes-placed Fleeting Diablo (12-48, 73K, 2-5 at two, 10-35 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winning sprinter Driven by Success (9-29, 591K, 0-1 at two, 9-23 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile What a Journey (13-94, 107K, 3-10 at two) and stakes-winner Loft (3-16, 103K, 2-3 at two, 0-1 sprinting). Trainer Todd Pletcher is 15-23 (65%, $4.50 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight dirt sprints (6-10, 60%, $4.22 ROI at Saratoga). Pletcher is 24-96 (25%, $1.71 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

9. AT THE PALACE (Any Given Saturday - Tatooma, by Lycius, April 13, 2009, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling, $25,000 Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling, $30,000 Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the May auction. She is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-11, 1.0M, 2-3 at two, won debut, 1-1 sprinting) that is 1-9 (11%, $2.16 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam, an $18,000 yearling and $43,000 juvenile, was a winner (2-15, 78K, 1-1 at two, 1-10 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-0 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Queen of Wilshire (7-20, 441K, 3-9 sprinting). The August 8, August 14 workouts match trainer Richard Schosberg's juvenile Readthebyline (finished fourth in $50,000 maiden claimer on August 17 with 38 Beyer). The August 20 workout went .01 faster than Schosberg's juvenile Backnbiz (56 Beyer top). Schosberg is 3-12 (25%, $5.20 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-5, 20%, $6.12 ROI at Saratoga). Schosberg is 0-6 with all debut runners in 2011.

Selections:
1. Stock Fund
2. Darn That Trip
3. Clever Spirit

The Play:
Stock Fund - Darn That Trip Exacta
Stock Fund - Clever Spirit Exacta

* Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 60-13-30 (-$16.90)