08/29/2011 10:12AM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Aug. 29, Race 5

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Saturday's results:
Race 2: Never On Time finished eighth
Race 3: Daddy Nose Best finished first
Race 5: Trophy Wife finished third

Sunday's races were canceled.

Monday, August 29, 2011

Race 5
6 Furlongs
Maiden Claiming ($35,000)
2-year-old fillies (New York Breds)
Purse $25,000

Analysis:

6. OUR PINK RIBBON (Prince Timber - Chance's Domain, by General Meeting, February 9, 2009, $0 RNA New York Mixed October weanling, $4,200 OBS Open June juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 22.0 prior to the June auction. She is by a Grade 2 route winner (4-17, 621K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 2-5 sprinting) that is 11-80 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (1-5, 20%, $0.58 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The dam was a sprint winner (1-12, 21K, 1-6 sprinting) and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Perfect Timing (14-57, 147K, 2-2 at two, 14-50 sprinting), multiple stakes-placed juvenile Bah Bye (3-27, 156K, 1-9 at two, 2-16 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winner El Don (7-31, 460K, 1-2 at two, 2-12 sprinting). Trainer Bruce Brown is 0-6 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-4 at Saratoga). Brown is 2-12 (17%, $1.65 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

5. FLAVOR GIRL (Northern Afleet - I'll Be the One, by Forest Wildcat, January 11, 2009 in New York, $25,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (5-21, 626K, 1-3 at two, 3-11 sprinting) that is 118-707 (17%) with juveniles. The dam, a $27,000 yearling, was a juvenile sprint winner (1-3, 28K, 1-3 at two, 1-3 sprinting) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 2-4 with sprinters). The third dam is stakes-placed Unsociable (2-12, 13K, 1-3 at two). Trainer Carlos Martin is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles adding blinkers and dropping from maiden special weights in dirt sprints. Chased favored winner in career debut before facing runaway over muddy main track. Seems well-placed adding blinkers and dropping back in with statebred maiden claimers.

3. FOR HER EYES ONLY (Utopia - On Call, by Forest Camp, April 4, 2009, $15,000 New York Mixed October weanling, $30,000 OBS Spring April juvenile, Out Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the April auction). She is by a multiple Grade 1 winner in Japan (9-34, 4.9M, 3-4 at two, 2-3 sprinting) that is 1-25 (4%) with juveniles from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $60,000 short yearling and $85,000 yearling, was unraced and this is her first starter. The second dam is stakes-winning sprinter Lolabell (4-15, 130K, 1-3 at two, 4-15 sprinting). Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Took a ton of money for her career debut and showed good early speed before tiring behind next-out winner Harbor Mist (graduated with 70 Beyer). Barring a quick firster, this filly figures on or near the lead once again.

1. HALL OF FLAME (Hook and Ladder - Artistic Express, by Western Expression, February 28, 2009) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (6-19, 388K, 1-1 at two, 6-18 sprinting) that is 43-372 (12%) with juveniles. The dam was a multiple stakes-winner (4-21, 251K, 2-4 at two, 2-6 sprinting) and this is her first starter. This is the family of stakes-winning turfer Rinka Das (6-37, 991K, 2-3 at two). Trainer Ramon Hernandez is 0-13 over the past five years with juveniles in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-3 at Saratoga). Finished behind For Her Eyes Only last time out and now must break from a tricky inside post.

7. NOT CLOSE (Bob and John - Macchiati, by Scorpion, February 13, 2009, $18,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling, $35,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 21.3 prior to the April auction. She is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-14, 996K, 1-5 at two, 0-1 sprinting) that is 3-27 (11%) with juveniles from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $29,000 weanling and $60,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-1, $0, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Fit To Be A Gent (13-89, 188K, 0-2 at two, 11-67 sprinting) and juvenile stakes-winner Roy's Trigger (4-31, 120K, 2-6 at two, 2-12 sprinting). Trainer Todd Pletcher is 1-1 (100%, $8.30 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints. Failed to make an impact in her debut, but must respect anything this barn puts on the track.

8. DOUBLE MINT (Eltish - Darby Haven, by Grace of Darby, May 12, 2009) is by Group 2 turf winner at two (5-25, 704K, 3-5 at two, 1-5 sprinting) that is
19-120 (16%) with juvenile debut runners. The dam was stakes-placed sprinting at two (9-49, 175K, 2-5 at two, 9-49 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The third dam is stakes-winner Chafing Dish (9-54, 186K, 0-4 sprinting). The July 17 workout went .01 faster than trainer Dominic Galluscio's juvenile Ganador (finished second in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on August 17 with 48 Beyer). The July 24 workout matches Ganador. The August 8 workout matches Galluscio's juvenile Shane Roars (finished sixth in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on August 17 with 19 Beyer). Galluscio is 1-19 (5%, $1.05 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-4 at Saratoga). Galluscio is 1-5 (20%, $1.38 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. BURNIN' ASH (E. Dubai - Seattle Ash, by Seattle Sleet, May 13, 2009, $2,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling, $5,000 Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the May auction. She is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (5-11, 920K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 1-2 sprinting) that is 26-158 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (7-45, 16%, $2.37 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 5 juvenile debut winners). The dam was a sprint winner (8-31, 94K, 1-1 at two, 8-29 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters). This is the family of Group 1 turf winner Moorestyle (13-21, 652K). Trainer Ronny Werner is 3-16 (19%, $3.31 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints. Werner is 1-15 (6%, $1.36 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

4. SLEEPING STAR (Andromeda's Hero - Sleeplessnseattle, by Seattle Dancer, March 14, 2009) is by a Grade 3 route winner (4-25, 836K, 1-2 at two, 1-3 sprinting) that is 2-28 (7%) with juveniles. The dam was stakes-placed (4-20, 61K, 1-4 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 6 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 2-4 with sprinters). Sleeping Star is a half-sister to stakes-placed Fivefifteen (6-32, 123K, 2-16 sprinting). The third dam is French stakes-winning turfer St Isabel. Trainer Assaf Ronen is 0-12 over the past five years with all runners going turf to dirt (0-2 at Saratoga). Takes big drop in class after racing greenly at long odds on grass.

Selections:
1. Our Pink Ribbon
2. Flavor Girl
3. For Her Eyes Only

The Play:
Our Pink Ribbon to Win and Place at 9-2 odds or greater