08/24/2011 8:08PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Aug. 25, Race 3

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Wednesday's results:
Race 5:  Malibu Wave finished sixth

Thursday, August 25, 2011
Race 3
5 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
4. HOLIDAY BROAD (Harlan's Holiday - Countess Godiva, by Grand Slam, February 21, 2009 in Kentucky, $60,000 Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton February juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (9-22, 3.6M, 4-6 at two, 2-3 sprinting) that is 25-179 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (5-46, 11%, Positive ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner at this meet).  The dam, a $75,000 juvenile, was unraced and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Miss Turkana (9-36, 505K, 1-6 at two, 0-5 sprinting), French Group 3 turf winner Grafin (8-22, 324K), French Group 3 turf winner Genovefa, Grade 3-placed router Commanders Palace (4-31, 155K, 1-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting), Grade 3-placed router Tibado (11-56, 390K, 0-10 sprinting) and stakes-placed sprinter Prairie Smoke (2-6, 48K, 1-1 at two, 2-6 sprinting).  The June 11, June 17, June 23, June 29, July 7, July 13 workouts matches trainer Eddie Kenneally's juvenile Chanttoomuch (finished fifth in career debut in $75,000 maiden claimer on turf on August 11 with 44 Beyer).  The July 21 workout went .02 faster than Kenneally's juvenile Professor Fate (finished first in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on July 31 with 65 Beyer).  The August 12 workout matches Kenneally's juvenile filly Force de La Nature (72 Beyer top).  The August 19 workout matches Kenneally's 3-year-old Delegated (79 Beyer). Kenneally is 11-63 (17%, $3.40 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (2-15, 13%, $1.10 ROI at Saratoga).  Kenneally is 6-30 (20%, $1.65 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1. ALYDARLA (Henny Hughes - Mamboalot, by Kingmambo, February 7, 2009 in Kentucky, $15,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, Out Keeneland April juvenile, $32,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 20.4 prior to the April auction.  She is by a multiple Grade 1 sprint winner (6-10, 1.1M, 3-6 at two, 6-8 sprinting) that is 27-147 (18%) with juveniles.  The dam, a $250,000 yearling, was a stakes-placed sprinter (3-11, 53K, 1-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 1-2 with sprinters).  The second dam is Grade 2 winner Investalot (7-15, 310K, 6-10 sprinting).  Trainer James Chapman is 2-6 (33%, 2.10 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile runners in maiden special weight sprints.  Overmatched in debut, but showed good early speed in most recent try.  Must avoid a prolonged duel with Stay Composed, but should appreciate the slight cutback in distance.

3. KRISSY KAT (Tale of the Cat - Kristy Beethoven, by Kris S., January 22, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling, $120,000 Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the May auction.  She is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (5-9, 360K, 1-3 sprinting) that is 74-394 (19%) with juvenile debut runners (13-56, 23%, $2.45 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 8 juvenile debut winners, 2 at this meet).  The dam was a route winner (4-19, 146K, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with 2yos, juvenile debut winner, 1-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 route winner Golden Sonata (5-18, 283K, 0-1 at two) and stakes-placed Le Chateau (2-15, 132K, 0-3 at two, 0-2 sprinting). The July 2, July 16, August 8 workouts match trainer Ralph Nicks' juvenile filly Hearts of Red (finished fifth in career debut on August 14 with 69 Beyer).  Nicks is 4-30 (13%, $2.85 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (2-6, 33%, $12.00 ROI at Saratoga).  Nicks is 3-25 (12%, $4.02 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2010.

2. STAY COMPOSED (Bernstein - Al Max Diner, by End Sweep, February 2, 2009 in Kentucky, $28,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling, $70,000 Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the May auction.  She is by a multiple Group 3 turf winner (4-8, 173K, 2-3 at two) that is 107-628 (17%) with juveniles.  The dam, an $80,000 yearling, was a juvenile stakes-winning sprinter (2-12, 131K, 2-6 at two, 2-11 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-3 with juveniles, 1-3 with sprinters).  The third dam is stakes-winner Allegedum (4-14, 101K, 0-1 sprinting). Bruce Brown is 1-9 (11%, $0.45 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).  Showed good speed in debut and figures to be prominent when they swing into the stretch.

7. BARBADOS BEAUTY (Speightstown - Beautiful Moment, by Crusader Sword, May 13, 2009 in Kentucky, $105,000 Keeneland January short yearling, $150,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (10-16, 1.2M, 0-1 at two, 10-16 sprinting) that is 59-330 (18%) with juveniles. The dam, a $14,700 weanling and $53,000 yearling, was a stakes-placed sprinter at two (1-5, 33K, 1-3 at two, 1-5 sprinting) that has foaled 7 winners from 8 runners (4-6 with juveniles, 4-7 with sprinters). Barbados Beauty is a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Saturday Hero (3-16, 84K, 1-2 at two, 3-15 sprinting), stakes-placed juvenile sprinter Beautiful Treasure (1-18, 65K, 1-5 at two, 1-9 sprinting) and Japanese Grade 3 turf winner Henny Hound (2-4, 573K, 1-1 at two). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Bidding Proud (11-34, 456K, 2-6 at two, 2-9 sprinting). Asmussen is 62-185 (34%, $2.42 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (8-21, 38%, $3.55 ROI at Saratoga). Finished behind next-out winner Spare Change (graduated with 70 Beyer) in debut and this barn excels with second-time starters.

6. WELL KEPT (Henny Hughes - Alinechka, by Danzig, March 6, 2009 in Kentucky, $70,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling, $15,000 Keeneland September yearling, $95,000 RNA OBS Select March juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.0 prior to the March auction.  She is by a multiple Grade 1 sprint winner (6-10, 1.1M, 3-6 at two, 6-8 sprinting) that is 8-56 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (6-42, 14%, $2.85 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 4 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet).  The dam was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (0-0 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Contrast (4-7, 147K, 4-7 sprinting) and stakes-winning sprinter Peace Chant (4-21, 248K, 1-1 at two, 4-18 sprinting).  The August 18 workout went .05 faster than trainer Leah Gyarmati's juvenile Demon's Deputy (finished second in $100,000 maiden claimer on August 24. Gyarmati is 0-14 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-7 at Saratoga).  Gyarmati is 0-23 with all debut runners since January 1, 2008.

5. TAP A BAY YANKEE (Tapit - Raphaela, by Grand Slam, May 6, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a Grade 1 route winner (3-6, 557K, 2-2 at two) that is 73-468 (16%) with juveniles.  The Tapit - Grand Slam breeding 'nick' has produced stakes-winning router Bandbox (4-6, 183K, 3-4 at two, 2-3 sprinting).  The dam was unplaced (0-3, $356, 0-3 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  This is the family of Grade 1 turfer Spectacular Tide (6-34, 521K, 0-2 sprinting).  Trainer Bob Hess Jr. is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints.  Didn't break well in debut, but also didn't do much running.

Selections:
1. Holiday Broad
2. Alydarla
3. Krissy Kat

The Play:
Holiday Broad to Win at 7-2 odds or greater

* Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 56-12-26 (-$15.50)