08/18/2011 6:56PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Aug. 19, Race 7

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Friday, Aug. 19, 2011

Race 7
6 Furlongs
Maiden Claiming ($50,000)
2-year-old fillies (New York Breds)
Purse $29,000

Analysis:

1. FLIP THE SWITCH (Discreet Cat - Nurse Cleo, by Rahy, May 16, 2009, $5,000 Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-9, 1.6M, 1-1 at two, 2-3 sprinting) that is 3-19 (16%, $1.21 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011 (1 at this meet).  The dam was placed (0-10, 21K, 0-2 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed turfer Hollywood Baldcat (3-12, 125K, 0-1 sprinting). Trainer John Terranova is 0-2 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Terranova is 3-16 (18%, $1.51 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

4. MISS LIBBY (Desert Warrior - Via Mizner, by Forty Niner, March 8, 2009, $1,100 OBS Winter January short yearling, $12,000 OBS Open August yearling, $50,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 21.2 prior to the April auction.  She is by a multiple Grade 3-placed runner (4-16, 171K, 2-8 at two, won debut, 4-11 sprinting) that is 9-62 (15%) with juvenile debut runners (1-20, 5%, $0.32 ROI with all debut runners in 2011).  The dam was placed routing in the slop (0-5, 1K, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 6 winners from 7 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 3-7 with sprinters).  The second dam is juvenile Grade 3 route winner Worth Avenue (2-10, 105K, 2-5 at two, 0-3 sprinting). Trainer Derek Ryan is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Ryan is 2-55 (4%, 0.59 ROI) since January 1, 2009 with all debut runners.

7. RIPLEY'S GOLD (Stonesider - Mrs. Ripley, by Yes It's True, April 26, 2009) is by a juvenile sprint winner (1-1, 25K, 1-1 at two, 1-1 sprinting) that is 0-19 with juveniles from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $40,000 yearling, was a route winner (1-20, 17K, 0-2 at two, 0-9 sprinting) and has foaled 0 winners from 3 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 0-3 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Sam's Sunny Halo (16-82, 407K, 1-1 at two, 11-48 sprinting).  Trainer Bruce Brown is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding blinkers in maiden claiming dirt sprint.  Adds blinkers for good barn after showing some interest in her debut.

8. SHEA GOODBYE (Hook and Ladder - Gone Goodbye, by Gone for Real, March 17, 2009) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (6-19, 388K, 1-1 at two, 6-18 sprinting) that is 17-123 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (3-35, 9%, $1.12 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, all juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet). The dam, a $10,000 yearling, was a stakes-placed router (4-11, 133K, 1-2 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The third dam is stakes-placed Proud Woman (5-39, 60K, 0-8 at two, 5-33 sprinting). The July 6 workout matches trainer Tom Albertrani's 3-year-old Hershel (finished ninth in maiden special weight on turf on August 10 with 26 Beyer, has 48 Beyer on dirt).  The July 18 workout matches Albertrani's juvenile Actuarial (finished fifth in career debut on turf on August 13 with 64 Beyer).  Albertrani is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Albertrani is 2-24 (8%, $1.31 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

5. KARMA POLICE (Consolidator - Putbacktheglider, by Put It Back, May 15, 2009, $1,700 Keeneland September yearling, $20,000 OBS Spring juvenile) worked a furlong in 10.1 prior to the April auction.  The sire was a Grade 1 route winner at two (3-10, 661K, 2-7 at two, 1-6 sprinting) that is 37-382 (10%) with juveniles.  The dam that was placed routing (0-6, 0-1 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 2 sprint winner Friendly Lover (22-66, $1.2M, 3-5 at two, 22-62 sprinting). Trainer Eoin Harty is 3-21 (14%, $0.66 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in dirt sprints (2-12, 17%, $0.65 ROI at Saratoga). Finished ahead of The Funky Express with an even effort in career debut.

3. THE FUNKY EXPRESS (Freud - The Rodeo Express, by Rodeo, March 9, 2009, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Select yearling) is by a Grade 2-placed turfer (1-12, 44K, 0-3 at two) that is 73-471 (15%) with juveniles.  The dam was stakes-placed (6-21, 151K, 2-9 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters.  The Funky Express is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed juvenile sprinter Funky Munky Mama (2-8, 78K, 1-4, at two, 2-7 sprinting). This is the female family of juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Stormy La Reine (1-5 at two, 2-17 sprinting). Trainer Gary Gullo is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping from maiden special weights and adding blinkers in state bred dirt sprints.  Broke from tough outside post against next-out graduate Wildcat's Smile (65 Beyer in maiden special weight).  Can improve for barn that has better numbers second-out than with firsters.

9. MY JOPIA (Utopia - My Jodi Lynn, by Defensive Play, March 21, 2009) is by a multiple Group 1 winner in Japan (9-34, 4.9M, 3-4 at two, 2-3 sprinting) that is 0-11 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was placed routing (0-11, 8K, 0-4 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (0-5 with 2yos, 1-4 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning juvenile Galloping Grocer (4-14, 330K, 3-4 at two, won debut, 2-3 sprinting). The June 22, July 24 workouts match trainer Dominick Schettino's juvenile McCarren Park (finished third in career debut in $60,000 maiden claimer on August 12 with 29 Beyer).  Schettino is 0-6 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).  Schettino is 3-13 (23%, $2.59 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. BRIDGETTA (Roaring Fever - Fabulous Gin, by Go for Gin, March 5, 2009) is by a stakes-winner (4-19, 219K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 3-9 sprinting) that is 1-40 (3%) with juvenile debut runners.  The dam, a $12,500 yearling and $25,000 juvenile, was a route winner in the slop (1-13, 12K, 0-6 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 2-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed Attorney (11-56, 216K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 4-22 sprinting). Trainer Bruce Brown is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-3 at Saratoga).  Brown is 2-11 (18%, $1.80 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

6. INNER JOY (Mayakovsky - Inner Thoughts, by Swain, April 8, 2009, $1,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling, Withdrawn OBS Open June juvenile) is by a Grade 3 route winner (3-9, 275K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 1-4 sprinting) that is 1-31 (3%) with juvenile debut runners. The dam was a turf winner (1-6, 11K, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-0 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed New Dimension (2-18, 110K, 2-13 sprinting). Trainer Neal Terracciano is 0-4 over the past five years with all debut runners.  Terracciano is 0-26 since January 1, 1993 with all debut runners.

Selections:
1. Flip the Switch
2. Miss Libby
3. Ripley's Gold

The Play:
Flip the Switch to Win at 5-2 or greater.

* Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 46-12-22 (-$13.40)