08/18/2011 6:52PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Aug. 19, Race 1

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Wednesday's results:

Race 3:  Rockin Boogie finished second
Race 5:  Purest Form finished sixth
Race 7:  Goodtime Boy finished first

No baby races on Thursday.

Friday, August 19, 2011

Race 1
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis:

1. ILLEGALLY BLONDE (Mineshaft - Unbridled's Pride, by Unbridled, March 25, 2009 in Kentucky, $160,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling, Out Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (10-18, 2.2M, 1-7 on turf) that is 48-316 (15%) with juveniles and 29-301 (10%) with turfers.  The dam, a $500,000 yearling, was a turf winner (1-8, 30K, 1-7 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners, (0-1 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed turfer Perfect Copy (3-13, 123K, 3-13 on turf) and Grade 3-placed Stealin' Kisses (2-26, 104K, 0-2 at two, 1-13 on turf). Trainer Ken McPeek is 1-3 (33%, $5.40 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles adding blinkers in maiden special weight turf routes (0-1 at Saratoga).  Adds blinkers for overdue barn and may work out a nice trip from the rail.

6. ST PANCRAS (Scat Daddy - Marylebone, by Unbridled's Song, January 24, 2009 in Kentucky, Out Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-9, 1.3M, 3-5 at two) that is 5-49 (10%) with juveniles and 1-6 (17%) with turfers from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $725,000 yearling, was a juvenile Grade 1 winner (2-6, 171K, 2-3 at two) and has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to British stakes-placed turfer Unigold (5-41, 214K, 0-3 at two, 5-23 on turf). Trainer Todd Pletcher is 5-28 (18%, $1.65 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going sprint to route in maiden special weights on turf (0-9 at Saratoga).  Took all the money for career debut at Belmont, but failed to get by the pacesetter after switching back to his left lead in late stretch.

7. HONEY TALK (Distorted Humor - Sweet Talker, by Stormin Fever, May 1, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (8-23, 769K) that is 151-863 (17%) with juveniles and 242-1717 (14%) with turfers. The dam, a $50,000 weanling, was a Grade 1 turf winner (9-18, 1.0M, 3-5 at two, 7-12 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 1-2 with turfers).  Honey Talk is a full sister to Grade 3-placed turfer Perregaux (2-8, 115K, 2-5 at two, 1-7 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 router Silver Medallion (3-8, 282K, 2-5 at two, 2-4 on turf).  Trainer Neil Howard is 1-24 (4%, $0.20 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles in maiden special weight turf routes (0-9 at Saratoga).  Improved in first start on grass and looms a strong forward factor once again.

5. SEDUCTRESS (Lemon Drop Kid - Indy Pendence, by A.P. Indy, January 21, 2009 in Kentucky, $125,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (10-24, 3.2M, 2-6 at two) that is 60-494 (12%) with juveniles and 35-288 (12%) with first-turf runners.  The Lemon Drop Kid - A.P. Indy breeding 'nick' has produced Peruvian stakes-winner Spicer Boy (10-35, 67K, 3-7 on turf). The dam, a $320,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-1 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Marquetry (10-36, 2.8M, 1-2 at two, 4-13 on turf), French Group 2 turf winner Spain Lane (4-11, 223K, 1-3 at two, 4-11 on turf) and French juvenile Group 3-placed turfer Queen's Gallery (1-4, 34K, 1-3 at two, 1-4 on turf). The August 5 workout matches trainer John Terranova's juvenile Cat Sweep (finished fifth in $100,000 claimer on dirt on August 10 with 70 Beyer, has 66 Beyer on synthetic, 64 on turf). Terranova is 0-3 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going sprint to route and dirt to turf in maiden special weight (0-1 at Saratoga).  Not much in debut on dirt, but is bred to appreciate today's additional distance. The runner-up from the July 7 race returned to graduate here on dirt with a 68 Beyer.

4. SWEET ZAPPER (Ghostzapper - Sweet Symphony, by A.P. Indy, February 6, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (9-11, 3.4M, 1-2 at two, won debut) that is 6-59 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (11-42, 26%, $2.89 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 4 juvenile debut winners this year, 3 older turf winners) and 12-83 (14%) with first-turfers.  The dam was a Grade 1 route winner (4-11, 646K) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Patriotic Flame (8-42, 291K, 2-7 at two, 0-2 on turf) and stakes-winner Infinite Glory (13-563, 270K, 2-7 at two, 0-3 on turf). The July 30 workout matches trainer Bill Mott's juvenile Winston C (finished ninth in career debut on turf on August 6 with 52 Beyer).  Mott is 5-55 (9%, $0.71 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (2-20, 10%, $0.56 ROI at Saratoga). Mott is 3-38 (7%, $1.35 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

3. BEAUTIFUL AFFAIR (Rock Hard Ten - Beau Blush, by Rahy, May 12, 2009 in Kentucky, $27,000 Keeneland September yearling, Out Keeneland April juvenile, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (7-11, 1.8M) that is 6-49 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (5-34, 15%, $2.75 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 older debut winners on turf) and 15-88 (17%) with first-turfers.  The Rock Hard Ten - Rahy breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 2 turf winner Doubles Partner (4-11, 353K, 1-4 at two, 4-7 on turf, first-turf winner). The dam, a $102,000 juvenile was a multiple stakes-winner (6-24, 222K, 2-5 at two, won debut, 1-5 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 5 winners from 6 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-4 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 sprint winner Marley Vale (6-17, 569K, 1-3 at two).  Trainer Chad Brown is 3-20 (15%, $1.48 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (2-9, 22%, $2.15 ROI at Saratoga). Brown is 3-30 (10%, $1.17 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. PARTY OF INTEREST (Bernardini - Search Party, by Seeking the Gold, May 9, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (6-8, 3.0M) that is 17-83 (20%) with juveniles and 1-29 (3%) with first-turfers. The Bernardini - Giant's Causeway breeding "nick" has produced Grade 1-placed router R Gypsy Gold (1-7, 72K). The dam was Grade 3-placed (6-25, 258K, 0-2 at two, 0-1 on turf and has foaled 3 winners from 7 runners (1-6 with 2yos, 2-5 with turfers, 1 first-turf winner.  Party of Interest is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Criminologist (9-22, 554K, 0-1 at two, 8-16 on turf) and Grade 2-placed Rescue Squad (2-14, 162K, 1-1 at two, 1-13 on turf, first-turf winner)..  The dam is a full sister to multiple Grade 3-placed Manoa (4-25, 262K, 0-3 on turf).  The dam is also a half-sister to Grade 2-placed juvenile Proxy Statement (3-8, 105K, 2-3 at two).  Trainer Shug McGaughey is 1-2 (50%, $4.05 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going sprint to route and dirt to turf in maiden special weight (1-1, 100%, $8.10 ROI at Saratoga).

9. RESERVATION BLUES (Indian Charlie - Gone for Christmas, by Gone West, April 1, 2009 in Virginia, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (4-5, 616K, 1-1 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 38-241 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (3-35, 9%, $1.14 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners).  The dam was a winner (2-9, 73K, 1-4 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 1-3 with sprinters).  Reservation Blues is a half-sister to stakes-placed router Christmas for Liam (3-7, 107K, 0-1 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 route winner Christmas Kid (4-12, 596K, 1-3 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winner Elusive Gift (6-16, 211K, 4-10 sprinting).  The July 28 workout matches Todd Pletcher's juvenile Hunt Crossing (finished first in career debut here on August 3 with 87 Beyer). Pletcher is 61-265 (23%, $1.63 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (20-82, 24%, $1.95 ROI at Saratoga).  Pletcher is 24-791 (26%, $1.80 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

8. REFINING (Malibu Moon - Good Cause, by Giant's Causeway, foaled February 8, 2009 in Florida, $37,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile sprint winner (1-2, 33K, 1-2 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 159-815 (20%) with juveniles. The dam was unraced and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Tee Cat (8-37, 198K, 0-1 at two, 3-15 sprinting), multiple stakes-placed Chula (3-20, 69K), stakes-placed Amon (9-44, 167K, 0-2 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and stakes-winner Snug Harbour (6-16, 164K, 1-5 at two, 3-7 sprinting). Trainer Bill Mott is 7-39 (18%, $1.64 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (4-19, 21%, $2.53 ROI at Saratoga). Ran into three promising fillies in her career debut and should improve with barn that owns better numbers second-out than with firsters. Likely factors if this race is washed to the main track.

Selections:
1. Illegally Blonde
2. St Pancras
3. Honey Talk

The Play:
Illegally Blonde to Win and Place at 4-1 odds or greater