08/16/2011 11:06PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Aug. 17, Race 7

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Wednesday, Aug. 17, 2011

Race 7
6 Furlongs
Maiden Claiming ($50,000)
2-year-olds (New York Breds)
Purse $29,000

Analysis:

3. GOODTIME BOY (Stonesider - Babyifurgoodtogo, by Elusive Quality, February 6, 2009) is by a juvenile debut sprint winner (1-1, 25K, 1-1 at two, 1-1 sprinting) that is 0-19 with juveniles from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $100,000 yearling, was a winner (4-22, 75K, 2-15 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The third dam is stakes-winner Dynanite (6-13, 103K). Trainer Carlos Martin is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping from maiden special weights in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprint (0-1 at Saratoga). Hopped at the start of his debut on July 24 and was forced to rally over a sloppy, speed-favoring track. Barn has sent out some live babies at this meet.

6. READTHEBYLINE (Read the Footnotes - Seattle Byline, by Slew City Slew, April 28, 2009, $3,500 Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling; Out Fasig-Tipton Spring April juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (5-8, 450K, 4-5 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 28-202 (14%) with juveniles. The dam, a $22,000 yearling, was a winner (5-44, 63K, 0-10 at two, 1-16 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (1-5 with juveniles, 4-5 with sprinters). Readthebyline is a half-brother to stakes-winner The Holy One (5-11, 138K, 1-2 at two, 2-4 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning juvenile Lt. John (9-37, 75K, 2-4 at two), multiple stakes-winner Writin' Mama (15-58, 317K, 2-8 at two, 0-1 sprinting), and stakes-placed turfer Little Mandy (1-10, 11K, 1-2 at two). Trainer Richard Schosberg is 0-4 over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping from maiden special weights in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Broke slowly in debut, was steadied early and then was steadied again when in between horses entering the far turn. Failed to make up ground over a speed-favoring track and was pretty late to change leads in the stretch. Should fit better at this level.

5. PURE GRIT (Pure Prize - Brassy Kitten, by Dixie Brass, March 14, 2009) is by a Grade 2 route winner (5-17, 475K, 1-3 at two, 0-4 sprinting) that is 79-452 (17%) with juveniles. The dam was placed (0-18, 54K, 0-3 at two, 0-12 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 1-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter That's Rich (6-25, 196K, 1-2 at two, 6-23 sprinting). Trainer Scott Schwartz is 4-34 (12%, $2.24 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (3-5, 60%, $13.92 ROI at Saratoga). Passed some tired horses in most recent outing, but may need a bit more pace help up front.

7. JUNIORS TRIBUTE (Golden Missile - First Tribute, by Rich Cream, April 9, 2009) is by a Grade 1 route winner (7-25, 2.1M, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) that is 64-668 (10%) with juveniles. The dam was a juvenile route winner (1-17, 14K, 1-7 at two, 0-9 sprinting) and has foaled 3 winners from 6 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 1-6 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Sweet Rejoice (7-52, 128K, 1-7 at two, 1-13 sprinting), stakes-placed juvenile Sweet Sunrise (3-27, 36K, 1-6 at two, 1-17 sprinting), stakes-winner Mystic (4-11, 53K, 1-3 at two, 3-8 sprinting), multiple stakes-placed Amber Tribute (3-38, 54K, 1-5 at two, 1-14 sprinting) and stakes-placed Deciever (5-34, 37K, 0-2 at two, 1-14 sprinting). Trainer Daniel Conway Jr. is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping from maiden special weights in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints. Three horses have returned from the July 29 race at Finger Lakes (all off the board, best Beyer of 18).

8. RAFFIE'S BANDIT (Raffie's Majesty - Moody Woman, by Charismatic, May 18, 2009, Out Keeneland September yearling, $1,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling, $2,500 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 11.0 prior to the April auction. He is by a Grade 1-placed router (2-8, 249K) that is 8-121 (7%) with juveniles. The dam was unplaced (0-6, 1K, 0-5 at two) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Wilzada (9-15, 294K, 9-15 sprinting). Trainer James Ryerson is 1-2 (50%, $2.10 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping from maiden special weights in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints. Simply outrun in the mud in his debut and needs marked improvement here.

1. JOY RISING (El Nino - Mary's Special, by Atticus, February 23, 2009, $25,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the April auction. She is by a Grade 2-placed sprinter (3-15, 153K, 0-3 at two, 3-10 sprinting) that is 0-2 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $32,000 yearling, was a turf winner (3-15, 26K, 0-4 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 3 winner Special Broad (5-25, 263K, 3-7 at two, won debut, 3-7 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winner Beware Avalanche (20-82, 529K, 1-6 at two, 16-61 sprinting). Trainer Linda Rice is 3-14 (21%, $1.54 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (2-7, 29%, $2.08 ROI at Saratoga). Rice is 3-38 (7%, $0.90 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. GANADOR (Posse - Quistadora, by Conquistador Cielo, April 3, 2009, $40,000 Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 22.4 prior to the May auction. He is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (7-18, 662K, 2-7 at two, won debut, 7-17 sprinting) that is 19-180 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (3-41, 7%, $0.57 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner). The dam, a $50,000 weanling and $150,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-1, $0, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters). The dam is a full sister to multiple stakes-winner Sophisticatedcielo (5-28, 290K, 1-4 at two, 4-22 sprinting) and is a half-sister to stakes-winning juvenile Patuxent River (4-74, 101K, 2-6 at two, 1-31 sprinting). Trainer Dominic Galluscio is 1-17 (6%, $1.17 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga). Galluscio is 1-3 (33%, $2.30 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

4. SHANE ROARS (Roaring Fever - Ali Wee, by Key Contender, February 16, 2009) is by a stakes-winner (4-19, 219K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 3-9 sprinting) that is 1-40 (3%) with juvenile debut runners. The dam was a winner (1-6, 45K, 1-4 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters). The third dam is multiple stakes-placed Eighty Lady (2-22, 22K, 1-6 at two). Trainer Dominic Galluscio is 1-17 (6%, $1.17 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga). Galluscio is 1-3 (33%, $2.30 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

Selections:
1. Goodtime Boy
2. Readthebyline
3. Pure Grit

The Play:
Goodtime Boy to Win at 3-1 odds or greater

* Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 43-11-20 (-$5.40)