08/16/2011 10:02PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Aug. 17, Race 5

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Wednesday, Aug. 17, 2011

Race 5
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Claiming ($60,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $32,000

Analysis:

5. PUREST FORM (Purim - Michellemybelle, by Irish Tower, April 8, 2009 in Kentucky, $40,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 turf winner (9-23, 928K, 1-2 sprinting) that is 0-8 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $21,000 yearling, was a winner (5-20, 106K, 1-6 at two, 1-10 sprinting) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 3-4 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed router Mo Mon (2-21, 197K, 0-4 at two, 1-15 sprinting) and multiple Grade 1 winner Adoration (8-20, 2.0M, 0-1 sprinting). The July 4 workout went .01 faster than trainer David Fawkes' juvenile Iron Post (finished fifth in career debut on August 3 with 63 Beyer). The July 10 workout matches Iron Post. Fawkes is 17-102 (17%, $2.18 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Fawkes is 7-48 (14%, $1.79 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

3. RESERVED QUALITY (Elusive Quality - Ed's Holy Cow, by Bet Big, May 2, 2009 in Kentucky, $75,000 Keeneland November weanling, $65,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 3 turf winner (9-20, 413K, 5-12 sprinting) that is 34-215 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (4-32, 13%, $0.93 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner). The dam was a sprint winner in the mud (1-15, 58K, 0-1 at two, 1-9 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (2-4 with 2yos, 4-6 with sprinters). Reserved Quality is a half-brother to multiple stakes-placed sprinter Allude (2-8, 88K, 1-3 at two, 2-7 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Winnie D. (6-26, 167K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 2-10 sprinting) and multiple Grade 1 winner Holy Bull (13-16, 2.4M, 4-4 at two, 5-5 sprinting). The July 11 workout went .01 faster than trainer Mike Hushion's juvenile Moreforyourmoney (finished first in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on July 31 with 53 Beyer). Hushion is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-4 at Saratoga). Hushion is 1-11 (9%, $0.33 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

4. GRAND ENCOUNTER (Grand Slam - Detect, by Devil's Bag, April 18, 2009 in Kentucky, $70,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, $60,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton February juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 21.2 over turf prior to the February auction. He is by a multiple Grade 1 winner at two (4-15, 971K, 3-5 at two, 1-4 sprinting) that is 182-1052 (17%) with juveniles. The dam was a route winner (1-4, 29K, 0-1 at two, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 3 winners from 5 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 2-5 with sprinters). Grand Encounter is a half-brother to Grade 3 winner Senor Rojo (6-25, 220K, 1-3 at two, 3-10 sprinting) and Grade 1-placed router Connie and Michael (2-7, 132K, 1-3 at two, 1-1 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Discover (9-32, 716K, 2-8 at two, 1-5 sprinting). Trainer Dallas Stewart is 0-3 over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping from maiden special weights in dirt sprints. Ran into next-out Tyro Stakes winner She Digs Me in career debut at Churchill Downs.

6. PATRIOTICANDPROUD (Proud Citizen - Luvina, by Forest Wildcat, March 21, 2009 in Pennsylvania, $27,000 Keeneland September yearling, $37,000 RNA OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the April auction. He is by a Grade 2 route winner (3-16, 638K, 1-4 at two, 2-8 sprinting) that is 15-137 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (4-28, 14%, $1.33 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners). The dam, a $95,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-4, 1K, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 5 winners from 5 runners (2-3 with juveniles 1 juvenile debut winner, 5-5 with sprinters). Patrioticandproud is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winner Terriffico (6-39, 309K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 2-13 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Shillelagh Slew (5-17, 736K, 1-4 at two, 2-3 sprinting). The June 9, June 17 workouts match trainer Mark Casse's juvenile Bubble Gum Shrimp (finished seventh in career debut over polytrack at Woodbine on August 14 with 16 Beyer). The June 17 workout matches Casse's juvenile Prospective (finished second in career debut on turf at Woodbine on July 31 with 49 Beyer). The June 30 workout matches Casse's juvenile Splendiferous (finished first in career debut in $75,000 maiden claimer on turf on August 11 with 74 Beyer). Casse is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Casse is 10-46 (21%, $1.86 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. WHY BROADWAY (Whywhywhy - Angry Reply, by Grand Slam, April 2, 2009 in Kentucky, $5,500 Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile Grade 1 winner (3-9, 315K, 3-5 at two, 2-6 sprinting) that is 10-129 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (2-26, 8%, $1.09 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner). The dam was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (0-0 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 sprint winner Fortifier (6-28, 218K, 3-6 at two, won debut, 6-26 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winner Restage (5-12, 161K, 1-5 sprinting). The July 20 workout went .03 faster than trainer Doodnauth Shivmangal's juvenile Harry Consolidator (finished seventh with 0 Beyer in career debut on July 23). Shivmangal is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints. Shivmangal is 1-17 (5%, $4.35 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 1993.

1. I'M NOT MYSELF (With Distinction - Holy Manda, by Holy Bull, March 10, 2009 in Florida, Withdrawn OBS Fall October weanling, $35,000 OBS Open August yearling, $20,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the April auction. He is by a Grade 3 winner (6-29, 447K, 5-18 sprinting) that is 9-68 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (7-44, 16%, $3.05 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 5 juvenile debut winners). The dam was a sprint winner (3-16, 50K, 1-5 at two, 3-12 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Wickliffe Man (6-31, 169K, 2-7 at two, 2-9 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winner Pettit's Quest (8-56, 266K, 2-9 at two, 2-21 sprinting). Trainer Derek Ryan is 1-26 (4%, $0.23 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Ryan is 2-54 (3%, $0.60 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2009.

Selections:
1. Purest Form
2. Reserved Quality
3. Grand Encounter

The Play:
Purest Form - Reserved Quality Exacta
Purest Form - Grand Encounter Exacta