08/12/2011 8:35PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for Aug. 13, Race 7

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.  In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Race 7
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

 

Analysis:

1.  TIZ SARDONIC JOE (Tiznow - Distorted Blaze, by Distorted Humor, February 28, 2009 in Kentucky, Out Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-15, 6.4M) that is 76-504 (15%) with juveniles and 22-216 (10%) with first-turfers. The dam, an $8,000 weanling, was unraced and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 2-2 with turfers, 1 first-turf winner).  Tiz Sardonic Joe is a half-brother to multiple Group 2-placed turfer Danse Grecque (2-11, 168K, 2-11 on turf) and Grade 3 turfer Joes Blazing Aaron (3-13, 133K, 1-6 at two, 2-4 on turf, first-turf winner).  The second dam is Grade 3 winner Suspect Terrain (10-44, 266K, 2-4 at two, 4-19 on turf, first-turf winner). The July 19 workout matches trainer Steve Asmussen's juvenile Irbywood (54 Beyer on dirt).  The August 3 workout went .03 slower than Asmussen's juvenile filly My Miss Aurelia (86 Beyer on dirt).  Asmussen is 5-50 (10%, $0.76 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going dirt to turf (0-5 at Saratoga). Exits faster division of maiden special weights on dirt at Churchill Downs and is eligible to show speed stretching out from the rail post. 

7.  APSE (Arch - In Reverence, by Alysheba, May 5, 2009 in Kentucky, Out Keeneland January short yearling, $50,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-7, 480K, 1-1 at two, 2-3 sprinting) that is 14-148 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (3-23, 14%, $2.59 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 older winners on turf) and 26-234 (11%) with first-turfers.  The Arch - Alysheba breeding 'nick' has produced multiple stakes-winner turf Arch Rebel (8-47 in Europe, 0-2 at two, 6-35 on turf). The dam, a $30,000 weanling, was stakes-placed on turf (3-11, 60K, 0-1 at two, 1-4 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 5 winners from 6 runners (0-4 with 2yos, 3-4 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 3 winner Hasty Pasty (13-66, 563K, 3-6 at two, won debut, 1-13 on turf), stakes-winning sprinter Dearest Desert (4-20, 79K, 0-2 on turf) and Grade 3 winner Cairo Express (8-38, 441K, 1-9 on turf). The June 21 workout matches trainer Mark Hennig's juvenile Wild Exploit (entered in today's second race).  The June 27 workout went .05 faster than Wild Exploit.  The July 4 workout went .01 slower than Hennig's juvenile Yonder 'tis (finished fourth in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on dirt on July 31 with 56 Beyer).  The July 11 workout went .04 slower than Yonder 'tis.  The July 18 workout matches Hennig's 3-year-old Chinglish (finished fifth in the Jersey Derby on turf at Monmouth on July 31 with 79 Beyer).  Hennig is 0-11 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (0-7 at Saratoga). Hennig is 1-11 (9%, $1.24 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2.  LIQUIDITY TRAP (El Prado - Shy Greeting, by Shy Tom, April 10, 2009 in Kentucky, $190,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile Group 1 turf winner in Ireland (4-9, 236K, 4-6 at two, won debut, 4-9 on turf) that is 27-301 (9%) with juvenile debut runners and 52-531 (10%) with first-turfers.  The dam was a stakes-placed router in Argentina (1-5, 10K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 on turf) and has foaled 4 winners from 5 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 1 debut winner, at least 1 first-turf winner).  Liquidity Trap is a half-brother to multiple Group 1 winner Forty Greeta (4-7, 62K, 4-4 at two, 1-1 on turf, first-turf winner).  This is the family of Grade 2 winner Good Command (6-20, 444K, 0-2 on turf). Trainer Chad Brown is 3-19 (16%, $1.55 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (2-8, 25%, $2.42 ROI at Saratoga). Brown is 2-27 (7%, $0.75 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

9.  ACTUARIAL (Dynaformer - Must Be a Lady, by Lord At War, April 16, 2009 in Kentucky, $285,000 Fasig-Tipton Fall weanling, $340,000 Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (7-30, 671K, 1-5 at two, 2-7 on turf) that is 39-379 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (2-23, 9%, $0.38 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 older winner on turf) and 101-722 (14%) with first-turfers.  The Dynaformer - Lord At War breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 1 turfer Purim (9-23, 928K, 6-13 on turf, first-turf winner). The dam was a sprint winner (4-10, 150K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 0-1 on turf) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 0-3 with turfers). The dam is a full sister to Grade 3 route winner Must Be War (5-30, 130K, 1-9 on turf) and multiple stakes-winner Warleigh (11-31, 682K, 10-26 on turf, first-turf winner).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Must Sing (4-16, 110K, 1-2 at two, 1-7 on turf).  The July 24 workout went .03 slower than trainer Tom Albertrani's juvenile filly She'saflashymiss (finished seventh in career debut on dirt on August 7 with 21 Beyer).  Albertrani is 0-10 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (0-2 at Saratoga).  Albertrani is 2-21 (9%, $1.50 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

6.  EBEN ALSAFA (Pulpit - Boom Town Girl, by Unbridled, April 4, 2009 in Kentucky, $425,000 Keeenland November weanling, $525,000 Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (4-6, 728K) that is 38-294 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (3-21, 14%, $1.12 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 older winner out of an Unbridled mare, 1 older winner at Saratoga, 1 older winner on turf) and 37-342 (11%) with first-turfers.  The Pulpit - Unbridled breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 1 route winner Tapit (2-2 at two).  The dam was a multiple stakes-winning router (3-19, 283K, 0-7 at two, 0-2 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (0-0 with juveniles, 1-2 with turfers, 1 first-turf winner).  The third dam is multiple stakes-winner One Is Enough (7-24, 153K, 3-7 at two). Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is 0-7 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (0-4 at Saratoga). McLaughlin is 3-24 (13%, $0.75 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

3.  BUT YOU PROMISED (Broken Vow - Western Humor, by Gone West, May 3, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a Grade 2 route winner (9-14, 725K) that is 24-240 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (5-31, 16%, $1.74 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 older winner on turf) and 32-276 (12%) with first-turfers.  The dam was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 1-2 with turfers, first-turf winner). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Military Look (9-72, 337K, 1-6 at two, 0-1 on turf), Grade 3 winner Warning Glance (14-45, 648K, 1-5 at two, 13-39 on turf, first-turf winner), multiple Grade 1 route winner Coronado's Quest (10-17, 2.0M, 5-6 at two, won debut) and French stakes-placed turfer Look to the King (2-7, 41K, won on turf).  The April 16 workout went .03 slower than trainer Shug McGaughey's juvenile Trade (finished second in career debut on dirt at Belmont on July 9 with 73 Beyer).  The May 10 workout matches Trade.  McGaughey is 1-13 (8%, $1.43 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (0-7 at Saratoga).  McGaughey is 1-13 (8%, $3.22 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

11. POLITICALLYCORRECT (Kitten's Joy - Exceedexpectations, by Tale of the Cat, May 14, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 19-105 (18%) with juvenile debut runners (5-44, 11%, $2.08 ROI, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older winner on turf) and 19-125 (15%) with first-turfers. The dam was a sprint winner (2-13, 68K) and this is her first starter. This is the female family of Grade 2 juvenile winner Big Sur (4-25, 323K, 2-8 at two). Trainer Wesley Ward is 1-4 (25%, $1.70 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (0-2 at Saratoga).  Ward is 14-44 (31%, $1.78 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

10. DULLAHAN (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike, February 8, 2009 in Kentucky, $250,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (9-29, 751K, 3-16 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 29-238 (12%) with juvenile debut runners and 11-85 (13%) with first-turfers. The dam was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with juveniles, 0-1 with turfers). Dullahan is a half-brother to Grade 1 route winner Mine That Bird (5-18, 2.2M, 4-6 at two, 0-1 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Golden Sunray (2-3, 87K). The July 22 workout matches trainer Dale Romans' juvenile Seve (finished sixth in maiden special weight on turf on August 6 with 64 Beyer). Romans is 0-5 over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoff and going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weight (0-3 at Saratoga).

5.  ATIGUN (Istan - Rimini Road, by Dynaformer, March 20, 2009, $42,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 3 winner (9-21, 461K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 3-8 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 0-7 with juvenile debut runners and 0-2 with first-turf runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was placed routing (0-1, 7K) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-3 with turfers). The second dam is Grade 3 route winner Evangelical (6-32, 253K, 0-2 at two, 0-5 on turf).  The July 30, August 6 workouts match trainer Ken McPeek's uncoupled stable mate Our Midnight Run.  The July 2 workout matches McPeek's juvenile filly Bye Love You (finished second in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on dirt on July 29 with 50 Beyer, 61 Beyer on turf on August 11). The July 15 workout matches McPeek's juvenile Affirmed Warrior (finished fourth in career debut on dirt on August 10 with 43 Beyer). The July 24 workout matches McPeek's juvenile Bunker's Ledge (finished third in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on July 31 with 58 Beyer).  McPeek is 4-31 (13%, $2.90 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (1-8, 13%, $6.05 ROI at Saratoga).  McPeek is 4-45 (8%, $1.20 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

8.  PATRICE MERION (English Channel - Scrofa, by Unusual Heat, February 18, 2009 in Kentucky, $130,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (13-23, 5.3M, 1-1 at two, 13-22 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 3-11 (27%, $6.17 ROI, 2 juvenile debut winners on turf at this meet) and 2-5 (40%) with first-turfers from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was a multiple stakes-winner (7-24, 353K, 1-8 at two, 5-12 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers).  The third dam is stakes-winning juvenile Teach Me (5-43, 116K, 3-11 at two, 0-3 on turf). The July 29 workout matches trainer Todd Pletcher's juvenile filly Bellamy Roadster (finished sixth in career debut in $75,000 maiden claimer on turf on August 11 with 52 Beyer).  Pletcher is 10-69 (14%, $0.96 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (8-34, 24%, $1.67 ROI at Saratoga).  Pletcher is 24-87 (27%, $1.89 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.  Filly tackles males.

4.  OUR MIDNIGHT RUN (Mr. Greeley - Quiet Maggy, by Quiet American, January 25, 2009 in Kentucky, $220,000 Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling) is by a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (5-16, 474K, 2-6 at two) that is 35-330 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (1-38, 3%, $0.12 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, juvenile debut winner) and 37-407 (9%) with first-turfers.  The dam was unraced and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Unforgettable Max (5-23, 384K, 2-2 at two), multiple Grade 1 winner Afleet Alex (8-12, 2.7M, 4-6 at two, won debut) and juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Stormin Maggy (1-5, 28K, 1-5 at two, 0-1 on turf). The May 21, May 27 workouts match trainer Ken McPeek's juvenile Saturday Launch (finished eleventh in career debut on dirt at Churchill Downs on July 3 with 32 Beyer, won on turf at Ellis Park on August 12).  The June 4, June 11, June 17, July 16 workouts match McPeek's juvenile Colbert (finished second in career debut on dirt at Ellis Park on July 4 with 41 Beyer, has 43 Beyer on turf on July 30 at Saratoga).  The June 25 workout matches McPeek's juvenile filly Putthebabiesdown (finished first in career debut on turf at Colonial Downs on July 3 with 62 Beyer).  The July 24 workout matches McPeek's 3-year-old Cardsontablefaceup (69 Beyer on turf).  The July 30, August 6 workouts match McPeek's uncoupled stable mate Atigun.  McPeek is 4-31 (13%, $2.90 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (1-8, 13%, $6.05 ROI at Saratoga).  McPeek is 4-45 (8%, $1.20 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

 

Selections:
1. Tiz Sardonic Joe
2. Apse
3. Liquidity Trap

The Play:
Tiz Sardonic Joe to Win and Place at 5-1 odds or greater.

 

***

*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 35-8-16 (-$26.70)