08/12/2011 8:10PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for Aug. 13, Race 2

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.  In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

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Friday's result:
Race 3 - Miss Caterina finished first
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Race 2
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight (New York Breds)
2-year-olds
Purse $40,000

 

Analysis:

5. TUG OF WAR (Smarty Jones - Lake Champlain, by War Chant, May 5, 2009, $6,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling 2009; Withdrawn OBS Spring April juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-9, $7.6M, 2-2 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 27-159 (17%) with juveniles.  Tug of War is a half-brother to stakes-placed Icelain Dan (1-7, 28K, 0-2 at two, 1-5 sprinting).  The dam, a $200,000 yearling, was placed sprinting at two (0-9, 10K, 0-3 at two, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (0-3 with juveniles, 2-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile sprinter Skipping Stars (0-8, 0-3 at two, 0-6 sprinting) and Grade 1 sprint winner Forest Danger (5-8, 423K, 5-6 sprinting).  Trainer Ramon Hernandez is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding blinkers in sprints.  Gained valuable experience in career debut while finishing ahead of Cybertron (returned to run third with 56 Beyer) and may improve with the addition of blinkers.

3. THE PRIZE FIGHTER (Pure Prize - Miss Winning Sweep, by End Sweep, April 10, 2009) is by a Grade 2 route winner (5-17, 475K, 1-3 at two, 0-4 sprinting) that is 78-447 (17%) with juveniles. The dam, a $75,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (2-5, 54K, 1-3 at two, 2-5 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 5 runners (2-4 with 2yos, 4-5 with sprinters). The Prize Fighter is a half-brother to Grade 3-placed juvenile sprinter Winning Expression (1-5, 78K, 1-5 at two, 1-5 sprinting) and stakes-placed router Shrewd Ice (2-8, 134K, 1-1 at two, 1-4 sprinting). This is the female family of Precisionist (20-46, 3.4M, 3-5 at two, 3-9 sprinting). Trainer Phil Serpe is 0-3 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga).  Earned a solid figure in career debut despite racing greenly (finished ahead of next-out 38 Beyer graduate No Flaws) and shouldn't be too far out of it when the real running begins. 

7. JAW CRUSHER (Political Force - Chicopee, by Mr. Greeley, March 4, 2009, $20,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling, $90,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton February juvenile, $63,000 Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 22.2 prior to the February auction and 2 furlongs in 22.0 prior to the May auction.  He is by a Grade 1 route winner (4-17, 607K, 1-5 at two, 1-7 sprinting) that is 1-6 (17%, $2.30 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $22,000 weanling and $110,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (1-2, 11K, 1-2 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The second dam is stakes-placed sprinter Deputy Em (2-20, 88K, 2-16 sprinting). The June 29 workout went .03 slower than trainer Bruce Levine's juvenile One Slick Dude (finished second in career debut on August 3 with 75 Beyer).  The July 12, July 27 workouts match One Slick Dude.  Levine is 0-24 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-9 at Saratoga). Levine is 5-140 (4%, $0.50 ROI) since January 1, 2008 with all debut runners.

2. THINK I'M HOOKED (Hook and Ladder - Mighty Emy, by Mighty Adversary, May 19, 2009, $48,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the May auction.  He is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (6-19, $388K, 1-1 at two, 6-18 sprinting) that is 17-122 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (3-32, 9%, $1.23 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet).  The dam was a juvenile stakes-winning sprinter (2-13, 42K, 2-7 at two, won debut, 2-9 sprinting) and has foaled 8 winners from 9 runners (1-7 with juveniles, 7-8 with sprinters).  Think I'm Hooked is a half-brother to stakes-winning sprinter Mighty Eros (2-6, 95K, 2-6 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Summer Lucky (5-46, 139K, 2-13 at two, 2-19 sprinting), multiple stakes-winner Mop Squeezer (6-27, 143K, 0-1 sprinting) and juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Jacksrbetter (2-6, 90K, 2-6 at two, 2-6 sprinting).  The July 31 workout matches trainer Gary Contessa's 3-year-old Molly's Ship (71 Beyer on dirt).  Contessa is 6-61 (10%, $2.53 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-15, 7%, $2.36 ROI at Saratoga).  Contessa is 3-24 (13%, $1.79 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

8. SMOKEM'S CHARM (Smoke Glacken - Mississippi Charm, by Silver Charm, May 10, 2009, $25,000 Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling).  He is by a juvenile Grade 1 sprint winner (10-14, 759K, 4-6 at two, 9-10 sprinting) that is 205-1146 (18%) with juveniles.  The dam, a $12,000 weanling, was placed sprinting in the slop (0-2, 3K, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 1-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Delta Wolf (16-49, 400K, 2-6 at two, 16-47 sprinting), juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Southern Ending (3-17, 16K, 1-5 at two, 3-16 sprinting), juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Usual Lies (3-13, 62K, 1-6 at two, 3-12 sprinting), juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Miss Wineshine (1-5, 189K, 1-5 at two, 1-5 sprinting) and stakes-placed turfer Mr Mississippi (3-13, 87K, 1-5 at two, 0-2 sprinting).  Trainer Charlton Baker is 0-4 over the past five years with juveniles adding Lasix and blinkers on dirt. Gets Lasix and blinkers makeover while dropping into state bred ranks.  Took on Bob's Place in debut and that one returned to graduate at Calder with a 63 Beyer.

6. WILD EXPLOIT (Wild Desert - Exploited Kris, by Exploit, April 5, 2009) is by a stakes-winning router (3-20, 1.0M, 2-8 at two, 0-1 sprinting) that is 0-5 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $1,200 yearling, was unplaced (0-4, $218, 0-3 at two, 0-4 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2-placed Ra Der Dean (8-57, 213K, 2-28 sprinting), stakes-placed Calamity Girl (3-15, 102K, 2-7 sprinting) and stakes-winning sprinter Herecomeshollywood (5-13, 190K, 5-12 sprinting). The June 21 workout matches trainer Mark Hennig's juvenile Apse (entered in today's seventh race). The June 27 workout went .05 slower than Apse.  The July 4 workout matches Hennig's juvenile filly Sally's Dream (finished fourth in career debut at Belmont on July 10 with 43 Beyer, 54 Beyer at Saratoga).  Hennig is 2-15 (13%, $2.84 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-5 at Saratoga).  Hennig is 1-11 (9%, $1.24 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1. LITTLE DALE (Yankee Gentleman - Our Mimi, by Our Emblem, April 29, 2009, $3,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling, $24,000 RNA OBS Spring April juvenile, Withdrawn OBS Open June juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the April auction.  She is by a stakes-winner (4-10, 202K, 3-7 sprinting) that is 62-384 (16%) with juvenile runners.  The dam was a winner (3-22, 98K, 0-1 at two, 2-17 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 1-2 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Iztla (9-44, 152K, 1-2 at two, 7-23 sprinting).  Trainer Dale Romans is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going turf to dirt in state bred maiden special weight sprints (0-2 at Saratoga). Raced very greenly on grass eight days ago, but should be in front given an alert break.  Lone dirt start produced next-out winner Silent Thunder (64 Beyer in $50,000 state bred maiden claimer here on August 6).

4. MORDEN (Desert Warrior - Morganatic, by Personal Flag, February 16, 2009, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling) is by a multiple Grade 3-placed runner (4-16, 171K, 2-8 at two, 4-11 sprinting) that is 24-202 (12%) with juveniles.  The dam was a winner (2-14, 34K, 1-9 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  This is the family of Grade 2 winner Vidor (5-14, 221K). Trainer Ralph D'Alessandro is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga). Likely faces tougher after rallying for second in Finger Lakes debut.

 

Selections:
1. Tug of War
2. The Prize Fighter
3. Jaw Crusher

The Play:
Tug of War to Win at 5-2 odds or greater.

 

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