08/11/2011 6:31PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Aug. 12, Race 3

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Thursday's results:


Race 5: Ezpz Lemon Squeeze finished second
Race 9: Speightscity finished fourth

Friday, August 12, 2011 - Race 3
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Claiming ($60,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $32,000

Analysis:

4. MISS CATERINA (Bluegrass Cat - Elusive Sara, by Elusive Quality, April 8, 2009 in Kentucky, $110,000 Keeneland November weanling, $67,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-11, 1.7M, 3-4 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 12-75 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (3-38, 8%, $2.18 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners).  The dam, a $20,000 yearling, was a stakes-winner (3-7, 77K, 0-2 at two, 2-5 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Sudden Sensation (3-34, 79K, 3-27 sprinting) and stakes-placed sprinter Paradise Princess (1-7, 44K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 1-6 sprinting).  Trainer Todd Pletcher is 3-19 (16%, $0.97 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-6 at Saratoga).  Pletcher is 23-86 (26%, $1.86 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1. HARD MYSTERY (Hard Spun - Summer Rainbow, by Summer Squall, March 19, 2009 in Kentucky, $22,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (7-13, 2.6M, 3-3 at two, 4-4 sprinting) that is 2-17 (12%, $1.22 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $10,000 yearling and $45,000 juvenile, was a stakes-winning router (7-24, 246K, 0-5 sprinting) and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-0 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters). The third dam is juvenile stakes-winner So Cozy (2-4, 32K, 2-3 at two). The June 15, June 28 workouts match trainer George Weaver's juvenile filly Sweet Moon (finished ninth in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on August 4 with 22 Beyer).  The July 8 workout went .02 slower than Sweet Moon.  The July 8 workout went .02 faster than Weaver's juvenile filly Goldie's Reward (finished seventh in career debut on July 31 with 37 Beyer.  The July 8 workout went .02 faster than Weaver's 3-year-old Fiddlers Padre (5 Beyer on turf).  Weaver is 2-8 (25%, $8.07 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-4 at Saratoga).  Weaver is 4-24 (17%, $2.33 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

3. ONE LOVELY LADY (Formal Dinner - Design Appeal, by Honour and Glory, February 7, 2009 in Florida) is by a multiple Grade 3 winner (7-39, 454K, 2-10 at two, 5-25 sprinting) that is 30-310 (10%) with juvenile debut runners. The dam, a $15,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 1-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Timeless Design (18-71, 404K, 2-6 at two, won debut, 4-21 sprinting). The July 12 workout matches trainer John Quiles' juvenile filly My Viva Loca (finished tenth in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on July 29 with 8 Beyer). Trainer John Quiles is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).  Quiles is 1-21 (5%, $2.60 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2003.

5. SMOKIN' ALICE (Smoke Glacken - Darling Alice, by Northern Flagship, March 28, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a juvenile Grade 1 sprint winner (10-14, 759K, 4-6 at two, 9-10 sprinting) that is 54-320 (17%) with juvenile debut runners (2-22, 9%, $0.71 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners). The dam, a $25,000 yearling and $50,000 juvenile, was a stakes-winner (3-19, 184K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-2 with 2yos, debut winner, 1-3 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to
multiple stakes-placed juvenile sprinter Onie Colonie (1-7, 34K, 1-7 at two, 1-7 sprinting), Grade 3 sprinter Afleetaffair (4-15, 174K, 3-4 at two, won debut, 4-11 sprinting), multiple stakes-winner Justadarling (5-24, 161K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 2-4 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winner ASong for Billy (7-25, 274K, 0-3 sprinting). The June 18 workout matches trainer Rusty Arnold's juvenile filly Run a Risk (finished sixth in career debut on July 25 with 0 Beyer).  Arnold is 5-40 (13%, $3.80 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in dirt sprints (1-15, 7%, $1.55 ROI at Saratoga).  Arnold is 4-18 (22%, $7.48 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. MCCARREN PARK (Posse - History, by Coronado's Quest, February 23, 2009 in Kentucky, $75,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (7-18, 662K, 2-7 at two, won debut, 7-17 sprinting) that is 19-176 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (3-36, 8%, $0.64 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner).  The Posse - Coronado's Quest breeding 'nick' has produced multiple Grade 1 winner Kodiak Kowboy (11-23, 1.6M, 4-7 at two, 10-20 sprinting). The dam, a $25,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (0-0 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Provincial (4-18, 176K, 2-5 sprinting). Trainer Dominick Schettino is 0-9 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga).  Schettino is 3-11 (27%, $3.06 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011

Selections:
1. Miss Caterina
2. Hard Mystery
3. One Lovely Lady

The Play:
Miss Caterina - Hard Mystery exacta
Miss Caterina - One Lovely Lady exacta

* Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 34-7-15 (-$32.60)