08/10/2011 4:17PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Aug. 11, Race 9

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Thursday, Aug. 11, 2011
Race 9
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Claiming ($75,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $36,000

Analysis:

1. SPEIGHTSCITY (Speightstown - My American Girl, by Quiet American, April 22, 2009 in Kentucky, $65,000 Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton February juvenile, Withdrawn OBS Select March juvenile, $49,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the May auction.  He is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (10-16, 1.2M, 0-1 at two) that is 17-126 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (7-41, 17%, $1.96 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners, 1 on turf) and 15-119 (13%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $21,000 yearling, was multiple stakes-placed (2-16, 42K, 1-12 at two) and has foaled 3 winners from 3 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 1-2 with turfers).  Speightscity is a half-brother to stakes-winning juvenile My Royal Girl (7-31, 63K, 2-5 at two, 1-6 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Lucinda (5-19, 109K, 2-4 at two, 0-2 on turf) and stakes-placed sprinter Smokin Bee (1-9, 31K, 0-3 at two, 0-1 on turf). The June 19 workout went .02 faster than trainer Gary Contessa's juvenile filly Siberian Wildcat (finished fifth in career debut on dirt here on July 25 with 23 Beyer). The June 24 workout went .01 faster than Siberian Wildcat.  The July 4 and July 11 workouts match Siberian Wildcat. Contessa is 0-12 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in turf routes (0-5 at Saratoga).  Contessa is 2-22 (9%, $1.00 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

6. SPLENDIFEROUS (Pleasantly Perfect - Ploesti Flight, by Lucky North, March 29, 2009 in Kentucky, $5,000 OBS Open August yearling, $19,000 RNA OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 21.4 prior to the April auction).  He is by a multiple Grade/Group 1 route winner (9-18, 7.7M, 0-2 on turf) that is 6-52 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (1-16, 6%, $1.56 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, older winner on turf) and 9-72 (13%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $11,000 yearling, was a winner (5-15, 50K, 1-5 at two, 2-4 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-0 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Gold Cure (7-36, 149K, 0-4 on turf), multiple stakes-placed Chit Chatter (4-23, 120K, 0-2 at two, 1-8 on turf) and multiple stakes-winning juvenile Chatter Chatter (3-10, 393K, 3-7 at two, 0-1 on turf). Trainer Mark Casse is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming turf routes.  Casse is 9-43 (20%, $1.71 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

3. MAORI (Even the Score - Karaka, by Storm Creek, March 31, 2009 in Kentucky, $17,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton October yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (9-29, 751K, 3-16 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 6-80 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (3-22, 14%, $3.00 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 older winner on turf) and 11-85 (13%) with first-turfers.  The dam was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-0 with 2yos, 0-0 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 2 winner Dubleo (7-13, 422K, 6-9 at two, 5-9 on turf, first-turf winner). Trainer Michelle Nihei is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming turf routes. Nihei is 1-6 (17%, $1.93 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. KNOCK ROCK (Corinthian - Lady Cozzette, by Cozzene, April 3, 2009 in Kentucky, $50,000 Keeneland September yearling, $40,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the April auction.  He is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-12, 1.2M, 1-2 at two) that is 2-24 (18%) with juveniles and 0-2 with turfers from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was unplaced (0-3, $0, 0-2 on turf) and has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 3-placed Daisyago (3-32, 262K, 1-6 at two, 3-26 on turf).  Trainer Scott Schwartz is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going sprint to route and adding blinkers on turf.  Raced greenly in career debut, but the blinkers may help him focus better this time around.

8. VENTURA BAR (Officer - Ventura Hotel, by Grand Slam, January 24, 2009 in Kentucky, $8,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile Grade 1 route winner (6-9, 804K, 5-8 at two) that is 100-546 (18%) with juveniles and 44-413 (11%) with turfers. The dam was a sprint winner (1-6, 4K) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Playinaround (13-33, 241K, 9-25 on turf) and multiple stakes-winning juvenile Playing 'n Gold (3-9, 150K, 3-9 at two). Trainer Ken McPeek is 2-16 (13%, $0.76 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route (0-6 at Saratoga).  Ran well in debut on grass in Kentucky before tackling impressive winner on dirt earlier at the Spa meet.  Logical stretching out following the two sprints.

7. CHANTTOOMUCH (War Chant - Heavenly Spirits, by Southern Halo, March 9, 2009 in Kentucky, $3,500 Keeneland November weanling, $25,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 turf winner (5-7, 1.1M, 1-1 at two, 2-2 on turf) that is 11-92 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (2-14, 14%, $3.16 ROI with all debut runners in 2011) and 25-181 (14%) with first-turf runners.  The dam was a sprint winner (1-4, 10K, 0-1 on turf) and has foaled 2 winner from 5 runners (0-5 with juveniles, 1-5 with turfers).  Chanttoomuch is a half-brother to French stakes-placed turfer Hitra, 2-15, 57K, 0-4 at two, 2-14 on turf).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Meadow Mist (2-15, 40K, 1-9 on turf, first-turf winner) and multiple Grade/Group 3 turfer Sangria (3-17, 202K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 3-17 on turf, first-turf winner).  Trainer Eddie Kenneally is 0-8 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in turf routes.  Kenneally is 6-26 (23%, $1.90 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

4. GOSSIP COLUMN (Bandini - Hot Gossip, by Java Gold, February 23, 2009 in New York, $27,000 New York Mixed October weanling, Out Keeneland November weanling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-9, 676K, 0-1 at two) that is 4-47 (9%) with juvenile debut runners and 0-25 with first-turf runners. The dam was a sprint winner (1-4, 21K) and has foaled 5 winners from 5 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with turfers).  Gossip Column is a half-brother to multiple stakes-placed router Hot Golden Jet (4-17, 205K).  The dam is a full sister to multiple Grade 2 winner Grand Jewel (6-14, 289K). The July 17 workout went .01 slower than trainer Carlos Martin's juvenile Goose No Fruit (finished second in career debut on dirt in $50,000 maiden claimer on August 6 with 56 Beyer).  The July 25 workout matches Martin's juvenile Scandalicious (finished second in career debut on dirt on August 8 with 47 Beyer).  Martin is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming turf routes. Martin is 2-17 (11%, $1.72 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

5. GUYANA STAR DWEEJ (Eddington - Special Feeling, by Pine Bluff, April 3, 2009 in Kentucky, $5,500 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-17, 1.2M, 0-1 at two, 1-1 on turf) that is 9-80 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (4-31, 13%, $2.85 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older winner on turf) and 5-61 (8%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $100,000 yearling, was placed (0-9, 10K) and has foaled 2 winner from 5 runners (2-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers).  Guyana Star Dweej is a half-brother to stakes-placed sprinter Lucky Sherman (1-14, 38K, 1-6 at two).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 sprint winner Fara's Team (6-21, 360K, 2-8 at two), Grade 3 route winner Delafield (6-15, 196K, 0-1 at two), The August 1 workout matches trainer Doodnauth Shivmangal's juvenile Harry Consolidator (0 Beyer on dirt).  Shivmangal is 0-3 over the past five years with juveniles on turf. Shivmangal is 0-14 since January 1, 1994 with all debut runners.

9, GOLDEN NOBLE (Noble Causeway - Goldendale, by Saint Ballado, April 30, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1-placed router (0-2 at two, 0-2 on turf) that is 0-10 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011 (this is his first turf starter). The dam was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 5 runners (2-4 with juveniles, 1-2 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed juvenile Sisti's Pride (1-10, 70K, 1-6 at two). The July 8 workout matches trainer Nick Zito's juvenile Texas Josh (finished seventh in career debut on turf on July 27 with 28 Beyer). Zito is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in turf routes (0-2 at Saratoga).  Zito is 1-30 (3%, $0.51 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

10. SAINT HONORE (Sun King - She Ain't a Saint, by Meadowlake, May 3, 2009 in Kentucky, $29,000 Keeneland November weanling, Out Keeneland September yearling, Out Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (6-28, 2.2M, 1-4 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 0-10 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $20,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (5-26, 71K, 5-24 sprinting) and has foaled 5 winners from 6 runners (3-5 at two, 2 juvenile debut winners, 4-6 with sprinters).  Saint Honore is a half-brother to stakes-placed juvenile I Lost My Halo (4-26, 48K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 1-17 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Tomica (1-20, 27K, 1-8 at two, won debut, 1-18 sprinting). The July 25 workout matches trainer Nick Zito's juvenile A Cat That Flies (finished eighth in career debut on July 30 with 37 Beyer).  The August 8 workout matches Zito's 3-year-old Alvito (59 Beyer on turf, 43 Beyer on dirt).  Zito is 1-11 (9%, $1.49 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (1-4, 25%, $4.10 ROI at Saratoga).  Zito is 1-30 (3%, $0.51 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

Selections:
1. Speightscity
2. Splendiferous
3. Maori

The Play:
Speightscity to Win at 5-2 odds or greater.

* Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 32-7-14 (-$28.60)