08/10/2011 4:13PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Aug. 11, Race 5

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Wednesday's results:
Race 2: Flavor Girl finished second
Race 4: Raconteur finished fifth

Thursday, August 11, 2011
Race 5
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Claiming ($75,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $36,000

Analysis:

2. EZPZ LEMON SQUEEZE (Pure Prize - We Got a Lemon, by Lemon Drop Kid, February 22, 2209 in Kentucky, Out Keeneland September yearling, $4,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling, $40,000 Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the May auction.  She is by a Grade 2 route winner (5-17, 475K, 1-3 at two) that is 17-140 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (2-36, 6%, $2.59 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet) and 14-139 (10%) with first-turf runners. The dam was unraced and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Valid Miss Chain (9-56, 156K, 0-10 on turf), juvenile stakes-winning turfer Unchained Storm (3-11, 120K, 2-4 at two, won debut, 3-9 on turf, first-turf winner) and multiple stakes-placed juvenile Sweep Princess (1-14, 156K, 0-3 at two, 0-2 on turf).  Trainer Linda Rice is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming turf routes. Rice is 3-37 (8%, $0.92 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

8. CHOCOLATE DROPS (Honour and Glory - Magnificent Miss, by Chester House, March 23, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-17, 1.2M, 2-4 at two) that is 162-1068 (15%) with juveniles and 33-321 (10%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $22,000 yearling, was placed (0-6, 16K, 0-4 at two, 0-3 on turf) and this is her first starter.  This is the family of multiple Grade 2 winner Stancharry (8-32, 313K, 1-3 at two).  Trainer Charlton Baker is 2-37 (5%, $1.26 ROI) over the past five years with all runners going dirt to turf (0-4 at Saratoga).  Finished directly behind next-out winner Xunlei (68 Beyer in maiden special weight on dirt at Saratoga) in most recent start on dirt.  Best race to date came on polytrack so perhaps he can successfully transfer that form to grass at a price.

4. LADY GOLD (Master Command - Goldleafed Mirror, by Gold Alert, March 20, 2009 in Kentucky, $20,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (8-17, 1.1M) that is 3-22 (14%) with juveniles and 1-3 (33%) with first-turfers from his first crop of 2011. The dm was a stakes-winner (8-36, 199K, 1-4 at two, 1-6 on turf) and this is her first starter.  The second dam is multiple stakes-winning sprinter Silverleaf (7-13, 164K).  Trainer Christophe Clement is 1-1 (100%, $3.80 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix, dropping from maiden special weights and going sprint to route on turf.  Finished ahead of next-out winner Luna Storm (30 Beyer in maiden special weight on dirt at Monmouth) in career debut and the sire adds plenty of stamina.

6. BELLAMY ROADSTER (Bellamy Road - Maudie May, by Gilded Time, February 19, 2009 in Kentucky, $26,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (4-7, 811K, 2-3 at two, won debut) that is 5-40 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (4-30, 13%, $1.97 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner) and 2-21 (10%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $150,000 yearling, was a turf winner (2-17, 27K, 2-12 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with 2yos, debut winner, 2-3 with turfers, 1 first-turf winner).  Bellamy Roadster is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed turfer Notjustaprettyface (1-13, 35K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 1-13 on turf, first-turf winner, raced in England).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Ange Dancer (6-46, 89K, 0-3 at two, 0-9 on turf), stakes-winning juvenile Dusty's Command (7-94, $124K, 2-7 at two, won debut, 1-22 on turf), multiple juvenile Group 2 turf winner Sri Pekan (5-6, 150K, 5-6 at two, 5-6 on turf) and Irish juvenile Group 3 winner Daylight in Dubai (4-23, 89K, 2-6 at two, won debut, 4-21 on turf, first-turf winner).  The June 22 workout matches trainer Todd Pletcher's juvenile Big Creek (finished third in career debut on dirt at Belmont on July 1 with 47 Beyer).  The July 1 workout went .04 slower than Pletcher's juvenile Captain Webb (finished first in career debut on turf on July 30 with 72 Beyer).  The July 1 workout went .05 faster than Pletcher's juvenile filly Queen of England (finished fifth in career debut on turf at Belmont on July 14 with 39 Beyer).  The July 8 workout matches Queen of England.  The July 15 workout matches Pletcher's juvenile filly Crazy Party (finished first in career debut on turf on July 28 with 72 Beyer).  Pletcher is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming turf routes (0-2 at Saratoga).  Pletcher is 23-85 (27%, $1.88 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

7. LANGSYNE (Langfuhr - New Hope Seven, by Carson City, April 25, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (9-23, 698K, 0-5 on turf) that is 153-1133 (14%) with juveniles and 39-472 (8%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $23,000 yearling and $50,000 juvenile, was a multiple stakes-placed sprinter (3-12, 128K, 2-4 at two) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to Japanese stakes-placed Meiner Ehre (3-33, 563K, 2-5 at two).  The July 28 workout matches trainer Eddie Kenneally's juvenile Africanist (finished second in career debut on dirt at Saratoga on August 6 with 84 Beyer).  Kenneally is 1-3 (33%, $3.13 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route. Can certainly improve following wide debut run on dirt for underrated barn.

1. BYE LOVE YOU (Stevie Wonderboy - Touch of Joy, by Crafty Prospector, March 3, 2009 in Kentucky, $20,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile Grade 1 route winner (3-6, 1.0M, 3-5 at two) that is 1-18 (6%) with juveniles from his first crop of 2011 (this is his first turf starter).  The dam was a sprint winner (2-9, 16K) that has foaled 3 winners from 5 runners (2-4 with juveniles, 1-2 with turf runners in North America, first-turf winner).  Bye Love You is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winner Sea the Joy (5-22, 188K, 3-5 at two, 2-11 on turf, first-turf winners).  The second dam is stakes-winner Fairway Style (5-24, 84K, 0-8 on turf).  Trainer Ken McPeek is 2-12 (17%, $1.01 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route (0-5 at Saratoga).  Caught slop in debut and tried to rally over a speed-favoring surface.  Should save valuable ground breaking from the inside post.

3. BOURBONSTREETGIRL (Langfuhr - Amaretta, by Woodman, April 15, 2009 in Kentucky, $29,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling, $29,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, $32,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the March auction.  She is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (9-23, 698K, 0-5 on turf) that is 30-357 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (2-48, 4%, $0.47 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner) and 39-472 (8%) with first-turf runners. The Langfuhr - Woodman breeding 'nick' has produced juvenile Grade 2 route winner Wando (11-23, 2.5M, 3-5 at two, 2-7 on turf).  The dam, a $105,000 weanling and $75,000 juvenile, was Grade 3-placed on turf (3-14, 116K, 1-3 at two, 3-12 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 1-3 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Patroclus (in India).  Trainer Gary Contessa is 0-12 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in turf routes (0-5 at Saratoga).  Contessa is 2-22 (9%, $1.00 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

5. BLACK TRAIN (Silver Train - Casa Nekia, by Conquistador Cielo, March 8, 2009 in Kentucky, $20,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 12 winner (6-17, 1.2M, 1-4 at two) that is 5-62 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (4-41, 10%, $2.45 ROI with all debut runners in 2011) and 1-43 (2%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $10,000 yearling, was stakes-placed (6-33, 100K, 2-9 at two, 0-7 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple juvenile stakes-winning router Schoolin You (2-23, 157K, 2-6 at two, 0-1 on turf). Trainer Dominick Schettino is 0-8 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in turf routes (0-3 at Saratoga).  Schettino is 3-11 (27%, $3.05 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

Selections:
1. Ezpz Lemon Squeeze
2. Chocolate Drops
3. Lady Gold

The Play:
Ezpz Lemon Squeeze to Win at 5-2 odds or greater.