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Saratoga: Spa Babies 2-year-old picks and analysis for Sept. 2
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
1. DERIVATIVECONTRACT (Cowtown Cat - Infinitely Greedy, by Mr. Greeley)
40K yearling, 180K 2yo after 1F work 10.1; sire 1-24 (4%) 2yo FTS; dam won route (24K, 0-2 at 2, 0-1 sprint) with 3 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with 2yos, won debut, 3-4 with sprinters); dam full SW Lovewithoutend (59K, 0-1 at 2); barn 1-2 (50%, $10.90 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; 8/25 work matches Endowment Manager (FTS R7)
1A. FINANCIAL MOGUL (Street Boss - Trav N' Kris, by Snow Chief)
185K weanling, 170K RNA yearling; 1/2 G1 SP sprinter Bear in the Woods (210K, 0-5 sprint), SP sprinter Mr. Negotiator (79K, 1-6 at 2, 1-19 sprint), SP Cane Garden Bay (89K, 1-3 at 2, 2-17 sprints), SP sprinter Angry Bird (79K, 1-4 at 2, 3-15 sprint) by 26-146 (18%) 2yo sire; dam 2yo G2 sprint SP (68K, 0-5 at 2, 2-23 sprint) with 6 winners from 8 runners (4-6 with 2yos, 4-8 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple SP Kelkyko (218K, 0-6 at 2, 3-18 sprint); barn 1-3 (33%, $2.13 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos MSW dirt sprint Spa; chased Hopeful entrant; factors if in.
2. HARPOON (Tapit - Christmas Star, by Star de Naskra)
500K yearling; 1/2 SP turf 2yo Christmas Party (34K, 1-2 at 2, won debut), 2yo G1 sprint SW Cuvee (402K, 4-6 at 2, won debut, 3-7 sprint), G2 sprint SW Will He Shine (346K, 5-15 sprint), multiple sprint SP Catera (100K, 0-1 at 2, 3-8 sprint) by 33-262 (13%) 2yo FTS sire; dam won sprint at 2 (48K, 2-3 at 2, 2-3 sprint) with 5 winners from 5 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 2 FTS winners, 4-4 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 sprint SP Carol's Wonder (117K, 0-2 at 2, 3-18 sprint), G1 SW Olympio (1.4M, 2-4 at 2, 4-5 sprint), 2yo G2 SW Call Now (368K, 3-5 at 2, 3-9 sprint), SW sprinter Your Call (99K, 1-4 at 2, 3-12 sprint); barn 37-98 (38%, $2.81 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; 8/11 work went .03 faster than Bashart (1st MSW turf 73 Beyer 8/18)
3. BORSEGGIATORE (Hard Spun - Streetwiseandtough, by Street Cry)
70K weanling, 300K 2yo after 2F work 21.2; sire 39-257 (15%) 2yo; 1st starter from route winner (22K, 0-1 at 2, 0-3 sprint); dam 1/2 SP 2yo router Arezzo (61K, 3-6 at 2, 1-3 sprint), 2yo G2 SW Raw Gold (509K, 3-5 at 2, 8-19 sprint), 2yo G1 sprint SW Point Ashley (237K, 2-4 at 2, 2-3 sprint); barn 1-5 (20%, $4.40 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos adding blinkers dirt sprint MSW; expecting a better showing.
4. GRIDLOCK (Maimonides - Red Cognac, by Hennessy)
Sire G1 SP 2yo sprinter (62K, 1-2 at 2, won debut, 1-2 sprint, 0-2 with 2yo FTS); 1st starter from 2yo sprint winner (36K, 1-4 at 2, 1-7 sprint); female family multiple SW Crafty Alfel (871K, 0-2 at 2, 28-97 sprint); barn 0-36 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; 8/29 work matches Ireland (40 turf Beyer); jock's 1st call
5. YANKEE DIME (Dixie Union - Renaissance Lady, by A.P. Indy)
100K yearling, 300K RNA 2yo after 1F in 10.0; 1/2 multiple SP Elusive Schemes (160K, 0-4 at 2, 3-14 sprint) by 37-306 (12%) 2yo FTS sire; 2yo G3 SP dam (132K, 1-9 at 2, won debut, 1-6 sprint) has 2 winners from 6 runners (0-4 with 2yos, 2-5 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple SW Stormy West (367K, 0-2 sprint); dam 3/4 G3 sprint SW Buffum (254K, 1-2 at 2, won debut, 2-3 sprint); dam full multiple turf SP Value Stream (186K, 0-7 sprint); barn 0-46 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; 8/16 work matches Tightly Bridled (9 Beyer);
6. TIZNOWFORAMERICA (Tiznow - Papa to Kinzie, by Boston Harbor)
150K 2yo after 1F work 10.1; sire 97-721 (13%) 2yo; dam G2 SP sprint (111K, 1-1 at 2, 3-8 sprint) with 0 winners from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters); 2nd dam 2yo G3 SW Fancy Ribbons (242K, 2-5 at 2, 1-2 sprint); barn 1-6 (17%, $0.59 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos adding Lasix MSW dirt sprint; ran very well vs. promising field; contender.
7. SING THE DREAM (Songandaprayer - Out of My Dreams, by Two Punch)
21K yearling, 44K 2yo after 1F work 10.1; sire 188-1292 (15%) 2yos; 1st starter from winning dam (45K, 1-7 at 2, 1-9 sprint); dam full SP sprinter General Tommy (238K, 10-34 sprint); dam 1/2 SP 2yo sprinter C. C. Dubai (34K, 1-2 at 2, won debut, 0-4 sprinting); barn 3-14 (21%, $1.01 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos MSW dirt sprints; didn't face a strong field of NY-breds; capable of normal 2nd-out improvement.
8. ROLL ALL KNIGHT (Bluegrass Cat - Miss Sand Bar, by Glitterman)
9K weanling, 52K yearling, 37K 2yo after 1F work 10.2; sire 73-563 (13%) 2yo; dam 2yo SP sprinter (94K, 3-9 at 2, 3-10 sprinting) with 3 winners from 4 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 3-4 with sprinters); dam 1/2 SP Cheyenne Spirit (185K, 1-15 sprint); dam full SP Friday Meeting (49K, 1-8 sprint); barn 1-6 (17%, $2.69 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos MSW dirt sprint Spa; chased solid field of maidens; not out of it.
9. TIZAROCKET (Tiznow - Lungta, by Storm Cat)
100K yearling, 190K 2yo after 1F work 10.2; 1/2 turf SP 2yo Lacy Sunday (Germany, 11K, 0-5 at 2) by 22-292 (8%) 2yo FTS; unraced dam has 4 winners from 7 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 2-4 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple turf SW Or Vision (France, 49K), 2yo turf SP Litani River (France, 12K), multiple SW Nijinsky's Lover (179K, 1-2 at 2, 0-1 sprint), turf SP Hip To Time (19K, 1-1 at 2), multiple SW Dixie Fine (74K, 2-9 sprint); barn 2-27 (7%) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; 6/29 work went .02 faster than Camden Jane (3rd FTS MSW turf 8/22); 7/7 work went .01 faster than Camden Jane; 8/12 work matches Sidearm (1st FTS SMSW 8/30); jock's 2nd call.
1. Tizarocket (ae)
4. Sing the Dream
Tizarocket to WIN and PLACE at 4-1 odds or greater*
*If Tizarocket scratches, then substitute:
Tiznowforamerica – Borseggiatore EXACTA
Tiznowforamerica – Sing the Dream EXACTA
Maiden Special Weight
1. SPUN (Hard Spun - Christmas Strike, by Smart Strike)
195K weanling, 220K yearling, 130K 2yo after 1F work 10.2; 1/2 multiple SP No Passing Zone (185K, 1-3 at 2, 1-12 sprint), SP router Holy Christmas (32K, 0-1 at 2, 0-2 sprint), SW sprinter Double Down Vinman (540K, 2-4 at 2, 20-63 sprint) by 39-257 (15%) 2yo sire; unplaced dam (0-1 at 2, 0-1 sprint) has 6 winners from 7 runners (2-6 with 2yos, 4-6 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G1 route SW Christmas Kid (596K, 1-3 at 2, 0-1 sprint), multiple turf sprint SW Elusive Gift (211K, 4-10 sprint); barn 1-1 (100%, $6.40 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yo turf/dirt MSW sprint Spa; vet scratch 7/27; 8/12 work matches Al's Gal (10th FTS MSW turf 59 Beyer 8/18); 8/21 work matches Sidearm (1st FTS SMSW 8/30)
2. NEOCLASSIC (Street Cry - Classicism, by A.P. Indy)
Sire 13-137 (9%) 2yo FTS; unplaced dam (England, 0-1 at 1) has 2 winners from 4 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-4 with sprinters); dam 1/2 SP Kumait (England), multiple G3 turf SW Equerry (3-3 at 2), SW Ecole D'Art (France); dam full 2yo G1 route SW Tempera (670K, 3-5 at 2, 2-4 sprint), SP Barbican (126K, 1-2 at 2, 1-5 sprint); barn 1-33 (3%, $1.33 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa
3. PACEMAKESTHERACE (Ready's Image - Orient Pearl, by Manila)
24K RNA yearling, 42K RNA 2yo after 2F work 21.3; sire 4-29 (14%) 2yo FTS; winning dam (14K, 1-3 sprint) has 8 winners from 9 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 6-8 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G2 SP 2yo Royal Weekend (71K, 1-4 at 2, 0-4 sprint), 2yo sprint SP Skybox (23K, 1-6 at 2, 1-6 sprint); barn 1-9 (11%, $1.66 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint.
4. SALUTE THE L T J G (Salute the Sarge - Kalookan Lessie, by Deputy Commander)
50K yearling; sire 15-133 (11%) 2yos; 1st starter from multiple SP dam (124K, 1-5 at 2, 3-18 sprint); 3rd dam 2yo SW sprinTER Showtime Lady (173K, 2-5 at 2, won debut, 9-49 sprint); barn 3-13 (23%, $2.44 ROI) past 5 years 2yos synthetic/dirt sprint off 31-60 day layoff; winner of 7/13 heat returned to run 2nd (70 Beyer) in 150K Vandal Stakes at Woodbine; consider.
5. JUSTIN NGUYEN (Harlan's Holiday - Coli Bear, by Formal Dinner)
65K yearling by 143-839 (17%) 2yo sire; dam multiple SW sprinter (474K, 1-4 at 2, 12-33 sprint) with 0 winners from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters); female family SP sprinter She's the Mint (46K, 2-12 at 2, 2-15 sprint); barn 6-52 (12%, $1.83 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt; gave good effort debut; factor;
6. ENDOWMENT MANAGER (Master Command - Bold American, by Quiet American)
150K 2yo after 2F work 21.1; 1/2 G1 SP 2yo sprint Valiant Passion (132K, 1-4 at 2, won debut, 2-8 sprint) by 7-56 (13%) 2yo FTS sire; dam placed sprinting (12K, 0-1 at 2, 0-4 sprint) with 2 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with 2yos, won debut, 2-4 with sprinters); dam 1/2 turf SW Fifteen Love (503K, 2-4 at 2, 0-1 sprint); barn 1-2 (50%, $10.90 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; 7/4, 7/10, 7/18, 7/25, 8/1, 8/25 works match Derivativecontract (FTS R6); solid pedigree.
7. BIRD NOW (Tiznow - Elusive Bird, by Elusive Quality)
1/2 G2 SP sprinter Pow Wow Wow (88K, 1-3 at 2, 0-7 sprint) by 97-721 (13%) 2yo sire; unraced dam has 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-2 sprinters); 2nd dam multiple G1 route SW Bird Town (871K, 1-4 at 2, 1-4 sprint); barn 1-10 (10%, $0.48 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos MSW dirt sprint Spa; can improve with good speed.
8. MALIBU ANGEL (Malibu Moon - Angel Flying, by Saint Ballado)
Sire 194-1036 (19%) 2yo; SP dam (89K, 0-4 at 2, 0-1 sprint) has 0 winners from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters); 2nd dam multiple G1 turf SW Donna Viola (996K, 2-7 at 2); barn 1-1 (100%, $37.40 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos dirt sprint; showed some speed.
9. HAIL TO THE NILE (Pioneerof the Nile - Takeaway, by Fly So Free)
5.3K yearling; 1/2 SP router Miss Ballard (20K, 1-3 sprint), multiple SW Youcan'ttakeme (199K, 2-5 at 2, 4-7 sprint), G3 route SW No Giveaway (218K, 5-9 sprint), multiple G2 SP Melissa Jo (101K, 1-3 at 2, 1-5 sprint) by multiple G1 route SW (1.6M, 2-5 at 2, 4-19 with 2yos); unraced dam has 6 winners from 7 runners (3-4 with 2yos, 6-7 with sprinters); dam 1/2 SP router Never Topped (105K, 0-4 sprint), G2 SW Supercilious (843K, 1-6 at 2, 6-15 sprint), barn 1-6 (17%, $2.69 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa
10. SOUND OF FREEDOM (War Front - With Golden Wings, by Seeking the Gold)
120K RNA weanling, 300K yearling, 365K 2yo after 1F work 10.2; sire 35-232 (15%) 2yo; 1st starter from placed dam (19K, 0-1 sprint); 2nd dam 2yo G3 turf SW Sky Alliance (325K, 2-5 at 2, 0-1 sprint); barn 6-32 (19%, $0.69 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos MSW dirt sprints Spa; logical
1. Endowment Manager
2. Sound of Freedom (ae)
3. Justin Nguyen
Endowment Manager – Sound of Freedom EXACTA*
Endowment Manager – Justin Nguyen EXACTA
*If Sound of Freedom scratches, substitute
Endowment Manager – Spun EXACTA
Hopeful Stakes (G1)
1. SOUTHERN BLESSING (Dixie Union - Yolie's Choice, by Silver Deputy)
Although he cost himself early position by breaking inward, things worked out quite nicely as he sat by himself behind an early pace skirmish, saved as much ground as possible and rallied inside for second while no match for Wired Bryan; may be tighter for this, but draws the rail and faces a tough group; prefer others.
2. LONG ON VALUE (Value Plus - Long Message, by Orientate)
Undefeated colt was purchased privately following his gate-to-wire jaunt at Delaware; simply too fast out of the gate for his overmatched rivals and that race was over a second faster than the second division of the stake; hard to knock him as he's looked very professional; may offer value as he tries his toughest test to date.
3. CASIGUAPO (Sightseeing - Emerald Buddha, by Buddha)
Came with a solid late run vs. some good 2yos in his debut at Calder and then showed another dimension by going to the front in powerful maiden win; looked good striding out in the lane, but handled a pretty weak group and will likely face a much-faster pace scenario here; difficult spot.
4. CORFU (Malibu Moon - Fashion Cat, by Forest Wildcat)
He is wickedly fast and has yet to be headed; took pressure from Wired Bryan in the Saratoga Special and dug in grimly to prevail despite getting very leg-weary in the final sixteenth; could very well be the one to catch once again, but additional distance could prove troublesome; speedy, talented and in the right hands; don't ignore.
5. ALL IN BLUE (More Than Ready - Cloud Rise, by Buddha)
May want to give him a mulligan for the Sanford as he bobbled leaving the gate and then was pushed inward by Southern Blessing; rushed up into a tight spot in between horses on the backstretch and tried his best until tiring in the final eighth; can be more forwardly-placed with an alert break; may be best played on bottom of exotics.
6. BIG SUGAR SODA (Ready's Image - Squeakums, by Fusaichi Pegasus)
Broke sweetly in his local debut and set a solid pace along the inside; for a brief moment it looked as if he was going to be swarmed by challengers, but he kicked away impressively in midstretch; earned a very fast number and draws sweetly outside of the speedy Corvu; dangerous.
7. LUNARWARFARE (War Pass - Lunar Star, by Silver Ghost)
Took a bump after breaking from the tough inside post in the Saratoga Special, but Leyva worked out a nice rail-skimming trip until angling out in upper stretch; it took him until the 1/8th pole before he switched leads and his rally could be a mirage as the pacesetters were getting very tired; proved he belongs, but a minor award may be his ceiling.
8. WIRED BRYAN (Stormy Atlantic - Red Melody, by Runaway Groom)
Although he didn't get the money in the Saratoga Special, he took a big step forward; in the Sanford, he flagged his tail in the stretch and hopped back onto his left lead late; last time, he stayed right with the Corfu through quick splits and battled hard while much more professional; he may get this distance better than Corfu and drew a nice post; contender.
9. STRONG MANDATE (Tiznow - Clear Mandate, by Deputy Minister)
No match for Big Sugar Soda in the debut, but that experience coupled with blinkers inspired immense improvement; went right to the front and drew off late despite switching leads several times; the race was fast, but the competition was suspect and nobody was rallying late; has natural ability and strong pedigree; interesting at price.
10. KING CYRUS (Bellamy Road - Queen of Empire, by Empire Maker)
Won from Saratoga to Schenectady and did it professionally at this demanding distance after prompting the pace from the 3 path; that final time came back really slow, however, and he'll have to step his game up in a major way in order to compete with some of his more accomplished rivals.
1. Big Sugar Soda
2. Strong Mandate
Big Sugar Soda to WIN at 5-2 odds or greater
I am Hopeful that Long on Value will be the value bet for a big payoff