07/25/2013 7:53PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies 2-year-old picks and analysis for July 27

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RACE 2
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $85,000

1. INDIGO KITTEN (Kitten's Joy - Blue Holiday, by Cure the Blues)
110K RNA yearling; 1/2 SW sprinter Notonthesamepage (120K, 1-5 at 2, 1-1 turf), full G2 SW sprinter Holiday for Kitten (327K, 1-4 at 2, 3-12 turf) by 32-179 (18%) 2yo FTS and 39-245 (16%) 1st-turf sire; dam won sprinting (303K, 0-1 turf) with 5 winners from 5 runners (2-5 2yos, 3-5 turfers, 2 1st-turf winners); female family G1 SW Bedtime Promise (950K); barn 1-11 (9%) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf route (0-6 Spa); 7/8 work matches 3yo filly Barisoff (78 Beyer turf); 7/20 work matches 2yo filly She's Coal Fired (entered in Thursday's 3rd); solid

1A. BOBBY'S KITTEN (Kitten's Joy - Celestial Woods, by Forestry)
Full multiple SW Major Magic (123K, 2-3 at 2, FTS winner, 3-13 turf, 1st-turf winner) by 32-179 (18%) 2yo FTS and 39-245 (16%) 1st-turf sire; winning dam (54K, 1-5 turf, 1st-turf winner) has 2 winners from 2 runners (1-2 2yos, FTS winner, 1-2 turf, 1st-turf winner); female family multiple G1 turf SW Paradise Creek (2.5M); barn 5-26 (19%, $2.11 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf route Spa; can't count out.

1X. BOLD VISIONARY (Rockport Harbor - Freshwater Pearl, by Alzao)
40K yearling 1/2 multiple turf SP Pure Incentive (112K, 1-3 at 2) by 19-169 (11%) 2yo FTS and 7-127 (6%) 1st-turf sire; dam 2yo turf SW (73K, FTS winner, 1st-turf winner) has 5 winners from 8 runners (2-6 2yos, 2-5 turf, 1 first-turf winner); dam full G3 turf SW Alexis (351K); barn 3-15 (20%, $2.64 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf route (1-6, 17%, $2.40 ROI Spa). 5/22, 5/29, 6/5, 6/25 works match 2yo filly Thank You Marylou (1st Tippett Stakes 7/13 CNL 65 Beyer); 7/22 work matches 4yo Madris (83 turf Beyer, entered Friday's 10th); Castellano's 1st call; interesting.

2. BASE CASE SCENARIO (Pioneerof the Nile - Mamboalot, by Kingmambo)
200K yearling 1/2 G3-placed Alydarla (150K, 1-3 at 2, 1-6 turf, 1st-turf winner) by 2-7 (29%) 2yo, 1-1 (100%) 1st-turf sire; dam SP sprinter (53K, 1-1 at 2, 2-6 turf, 1st-turf winner) has 2 winners from 4 runners (1-4 2yos, 1-2 turf, 1st-turf winner); 2nd dam G2 SW Investalot (310K); barn 3-12 (25%) past 5 years 2yos dirt/turf (1-4 Spa); 7/22 work matches 3yo filly Rare Penny (60 dirt Beyer); chased runaway on dirt; expect more speed.

3. MEXIKOMA (Birdstone - Toccet Over, by Toccet)
55K 2yo after 2F work 21.1; sire 10-98 (10%) 2yo FTS, 3-84 (4%) first-time turf; 1st starter from sprint-placed dam; dam 1/2 SW Doctor Decherd (159K); barn 1-2 (50%, $8.10 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS.

4. BRANDED HAND (Hard Spun - Cape Cod Lady, by Yonaguska)
50K yearling by 7-90 (8%) 2yo FTS, 9-87 (10%) first-turf sire; 1st starter from SP dam (100K, 2-5 at 2, 0-1 turf); 2nd dam SP Miss Pine Top Az (15K); barn 0-25 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf routes Spa.

5. STROLL TO VICTORY (Stroll - Miss Malley, by Grindstone)
4.7K weanling, 31K yearling; 1/2 2yo SW sprinter Maileys Cat (86K, 0-3 turf) by 9-28 (32%) 2yo FTS, 4-24 (17%) 1st-turf sire; unraced dam has 2 winners from 2 runners (2-2 with 2yos, 1 FTS winner, 0-1 turfers); 3rd dam G1 route SW Dreamy Mimi (585K); barn 1-14 (7%, $3.45 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf route Spa; 5/18 work matches 4yo Carjon Carjon (63 turf Beyer); won't count out.

6. TALL BOY (Tale of the Cat - Quiet Now, by Tiznow)
425K weanling; 1/2 SP router Irsaal (123K, 1-4 at 2, 0-2 turf) by 253-1400 (18%) 2yo, 235-2007 (12%) turf sire; dam won route (37K, 0-1 turf) with 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-2 turfers); dam 1/2 multiple G1 route SW Saint Liam (4.4M); barn 3-23 (13%, $3.99 ROI) past 5 years 2yo MSW turf route Spa; faltered 1st start turf/2 turns; too early to give up on him.

7. NICE WAY (First Samurai - Wheatly Way, by Wheatly Hall)
60K 2yo after 2F work 22.2; 1/2 2yo G1 sprint SW Bevo (410K), 2yo G3 route SW Moonlight Sonata (145K, 0-4 turf), turf SP Carson Hall (249K, 0-2 at 2) by 40-288 (14%) 2yo, 10-85 (12%) 1st-turf sire; 2yo sprint SW dam (73K, 0-3 turf) with 7 winners from 12 runners (4-9 with 2yos, 4-5 turfers, 2 first-turf winners); dam 1/2 multiple SP Olde Elegance (275K); barn 1-41 (2%) past 5 years 2nd-time 2yos; perhaps stretchout speed try.

8. DIVORCE PARTY (Broken Vow - Pink Champagne, by Awesome Again)
160K yearling; 1/2 turf SP Dom (81K) by 33-310 (11%) 2yo FTS, 36-369 (10%) 1st-turf sire; dam G3 SW on turf at 2 (145K, FTS winner, 1st-turf winner) with 3 winners from 3 runners (2-2 with 2yos, 1-2 turfers); dam full SP router Awesome Moment (88K), 1/2 turf SW Z Appeal (70K); barn 1-19 (5%) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf routes (0-6 Spa); 6/13, 6/20, 6/27 works match 2yo Defining Product (25 Beyer dirt MSW DEL 7/17); 7/15 work matches 2yo filly The Careless Cat (5th 60 Beyer MSW turf SAR 7/22).

9. SMOOTH DADDY (Scat Daddy - Prairie Maiden, by Badger Land)
170K yearling; 1/2 multiple SP Virgin Voyage (226K, 2-9 at 2, 0-3 turf), multiple SW Prairie Charm (270K) by 47-275 (17%) 2yo, 14-100 (14%) 1st-time turf sire; dam multiple SW (294K, 4-11 turf) with 5 winners from 6 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 1-4 turfers); dam 1/2 SW Hopetoseeya (25K); barn 1-11 (9%) past 5 years 2nd-time 2yo dirt to turf; 7/17 work matches 3yo Let the Cat Out (49 dirt Beyer); Castellano's 2nd call; winner of debut on dirt returned to run 4th in Sanford (40 Beyer).

10. SPUN (Hard Spun - Christmas Strike, by Smart Strike)
195K weanling, 220K yearling, 130K 2yo after 1F work 10.2; 1/2 multiple SP No Passing Zone (185K, 1-3 at 2, 1-8 turf), SP router Holy Christmas (32K, 0-1 at 2), SW sprinter Double Down Vinman (538K, 2-4 at 2, 0-3 turf) by 38-246 (15%) 2yo, 46-310 (15%) turf sire; unplaced dam (0-1 at 2, 0-1 turf) has 6 winners from 7 runners (2-6 with 2yos, 2-6 turfers); dam 1/2 G1 route SW Christmas Kid (596K); barn 2-13 (15%) past 5 years 2nd-time 2yos MSW sprint to route turf (1-4 Spa).

Selections (turf only):
1. Bold Visionary
2. Stroll to Victory
3. Bobby's Kitten
4. Smooth Daddy

The play (turf only):
Bold Visionary (poe) - Stroll to Victory EXACTA
Bold Visionary (poe) - Smooth Daddy EXACTA

IF BOLD VISIONARY SCRATCHES, THEN STROLL TO VICTORY TO WIN AND PLACE AT 4-1 ODDS OR GREATER

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RACE 3
6 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $80,000

1. VIGORISH (English Channel - Golden Attraction, by Mr. Prospector)
1/2 SW router Gold Trader (81K, 1-1 at 2, 1-2 sprint), G3 sprint SP Swift Attraction (42K, 0-1 at 2), G3 sprint SP Big Top Cat (54K, 0-2 at 2) by 6-65 (9%) 2yo FTS sire; dam multiple G1 SW at 2 (911K, 5-7 sprint) with 5 winners from 8 runners (3-7 with 2yos, 2 FTS winners, 5-7 sprinters); dam 1/2 G1 route SW Cape Town (795K); barn 1-34 (3%, $2.94 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprints Spa; 6/5 work matches 3yo filly Broken Spell (4th Regret Stakes G3 turf 81 Beyer 6/15); 6/28 work matches 3yo Channel Isle (82 Beyer top polytrack); classy pedigree, but must hustle from rail.

2. A TOUCH OF POETRY (Birdstone - Overandabeauty, by Grand Slam)
Sire 10-98 (10%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from multiple SP dam (159K, 1-2 at 2, 2-12 sprint); dam 1/2 G1 route SW Tapit (557K); barn 1-52 (2%) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa.

3. TWANG (Dixie Union - Spoken, by Unbridled's Song)
Sire 36-301 (12%) 2yo FTS; dam route winner at 2 (28K, 0-3 sprints) with 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 2yos, 0-2 sprinters); dam 1/2 SW turf router Dream Nettie (146K); barn 2-18 (11%) past 5 years 2nd-time 2yo MSW dirt sprint; winner of debut returned to run 2nd (73 Beyer) in Colin Stakes at WO; runner-up returned to win at ELP with 91 Beyer; capable.

4. JUSTIN NGUYEN (Harlan's Holiday - Coli Bear, by Formal Dinner)
65K yearling by 42-283 (15%) 2yo FTS sire; dam multiple SW sprinter (474K, 1-4 at 2) with 0 winners from 1 runner (failed to win sprinting at 2); female family SP sprinter She's the Mint (46K); barn 2-7 (29%, $2.17 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS dirt sprint (0-1 Spa); 6/12 work went .01 slower 4yo filly Brianna Nicole (2nd 16K MCL turf 59 Beyer 6/19)

5. BAY OF BISCAY (Giant's Causeway - Good Vibes, by Unbridled's Song)
750K yearling; 1/2 multiple SW Warning Flag (1.4M, 2-4 at 2, sprint winner, raced in Hong Kong/Ireland), SP  Feel the Moment (98K, 0-1 at 2, 5-27 sprint) by 26-283 (9%) 2yo FTS sire; dam won turf (21K, 0-2 sprint) with 5 winners from 7 runners (3-7 with 2yos, 1 FTS winner, 5-5 sprinters); female family multiple G2 SW Fleet Velvet (224K); trainer 32-99 (32%, $2.57 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; 5/28 work matches 2yo Corfu (entered Thursday R2); 6/4, 6/23 works match 2yo Danza (1st MSW BEL 68 Beyer 7/12); expect a solid showing.

6. SKY DRAMA (Sky Mesa - Luv a Drama, by Behrens)
80K weaning, 100K yearling by 104-558 (19%) 2yo sire; winning dam (17K, 0-3 at 2) has 1 winner from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-3 sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple G1 winner (Peru) Tomcito (157K); barn 7-22 (32%, $3.15 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-time 2yo MSW dirt sprint Spa; 3rd-finisher from debut returned to win here 7/22 with 93 Beyer; certainly not out of it.

Selections:
1. Bay of Biscay
2. Vigorish
3. Twang

The play:
Bay of Biscay - Vigorish EXACTA
Bay of Biscay - Twang EXACTA