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Saratoga: Spa Babies 2-year-old picks and analysis for July 19
By Dan Illman
- 47K yrlg, 220K 2yo after breezing 1F in 10.1; sire 82-470 (17%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from multiple SW dam (257K, 1-4 sprinting); dam 1/2 SW turf router See Tobe (227K); barn 31-98 (32%, $2.57 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS in Spa dirt sprint MSW; several works match up with entrymate; contender.
1a. Our Amazing Rose
- 325K 2yo after breezing 1F in 9.4; sire 57-397 (14%) 2yo FTS; unraced dam has 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 at 2, 0-5 sprinting); dam 3/4 sis G3 router Minister's Melody (451K); barn 31-98 (32%, $2.57 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS in Spa dirt sprint MSW; 7/6 work matches barn's 2yo Danza (won debut 68 Beyer 7/12); looks quick.
2. Crystal Rocket
- 3.2K short yrlg, 14K RNA yrlg, 57K 2yo after breezing 1F in 10.1; sire 5-55 (9%) 2yo FTS; multiple SW dam (213K, 2-2 at 2, 4-9 sprinting) has 4 winners from 5 runners (1-3 with 2yos, debut winner, 3-5 sprinters); dam 1/2 SP turfer Titan of Industry (152K); barn 0-40 past year with FTS.
- 75K wnlg, 150K ylg, 200K 2yo after breezing 1F in 10.2; sire 55-393 (14%) with 2yos; unplaced dam (0-2, all sprints at 2) has 2 winners from 4 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-4 sprinters); dam 1/2 G2 turfer Pine Dance; not disgraced vs. Schuylerville entrant True Blue Nation; barn does well 2nd-out with 2yos; factor.
4. Stormin Mary
- 21K yrlg; sire 35-291 (12%) with 2yo FTS; dam won sprinting (22K) and has 2 winners from 3 runners (1-1 with 2yos, debut winner, 2-3 sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple SW Bold Comic (220K); barn 0-12 past 5 years with FTS; 6/23 work matches barn's entrant in R5; some price potential.
- Full sis to G1 2yo sprinter Dublin (438K, 2-5 at 2) and 1/2 to G2 SP sprinter Mike's Classic (328K, 0-2 at 2); sire 14-150 (9%) 2yo FTS; dam G1 sprinter (716K) and has 9 winners from 11 starters (3-7 with 2yos, 7-11 sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple G1 Missy's Mirage (838K); barn 1-32 (49-1 winner) past 5 years 2yo FTS dirt sprint MSW.
6. J. Quirk
- 150K yrlg, 110K RNA 2yo after breezing 1F in 10.0; sire 43-340 (13%) 2yo FTS; dam won on turf at 2 in Ireland and has 2 winners from 2 runners (2-2 sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple G1 router Tiznow (6.4M); barn 0-40 past year with FTS; interesting pedigree.
7. Art of the Game
- Sire 42-262 (16%) 2yo FTS; dam multiple G1 SP on turf (293K, 0-1 sprinting) and has 0 winners from 1 starter (0-1 at 2, 0-1 sprinting); dam 1/2 SW turfer Megantic (295K); barn 1-51 past 5 years with 2yo FTS in Spa dirt sprint MSW's.
1. Stopchargingmaria (part of entry)*
2. J. Quirk
3. Stormin Mary
Stopchargingmaria - J. Quirk EXACTA
Stopchargingmaria - Stormin Mary EXACTA
* IF STOPCHARGINGMARIA SCRATCHES, then J. QUIRK to WIN and PLACE at 5-1 odds or greater.
3/4 sis SW turf router Hangingbyathread (307K) by 8-83 (10%) 2yo FTS sire; dam won on turf at 2 (39K, 0-1 sprinting) and has 4 winners from 4 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-3 sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple SW Senate Appointee (543K); barn 1-26 past 5 years 2yo FTS in NY-bred MSW dirt sprints at Spa.
2. Flying K C
37K yrlg RNA by 82-470 (17%) 2yo FTS sire; dam SW sprinter (188K, 1-2 at two) with 2 winners from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 0-1 sprinters); barn had 2yo FTS winner Pure Gossip (37-1) in NY-bred dirt sprint MSW on Spa Opening Day '11; interesting.
1/2 to 2yo SW sprinter I'm a Numbers Guy (195K, FTS winner) by 8-83 (10%) 2yo FTS sire; dam won sprinting (236K) and has 6 winners from 9 runners (4-7 with 2yos, 2 FTS winners, 6-9 sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 SP router Fellow Traveler; barn 1-5 (20%, $2.84 ROI) 2013 all FTS.
4. Her Majesty's Own
Sire 36-344 (10%) 2yo FTS; dam won sprinting (23K) and has 1 winner from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 1-2 sprinters); female family G1 sprinter Kelly's Landing; barn 0 for last 24 with all FTS dating back through 1997.
5. I'm Gonna Flip
1/2 SP router Smokin Candy (136K, 0-3 at 2, 1-8 sprinting) by 183-1018 (18%) 2yo sire; dam SP routing at 2 (91K) and has 1 winner from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-3 sprinters); dam 1/2 SP router Seattle Schifty (114K); seemed uncomfortable in between early debut; expect improvement.
Sire 22-182 (12%) 2yo FTS; unraced dam has 2 winners from 4 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 2-4 sprinters); 2nd dam is G2 Thirst for Peace; barn 0-16 past 5 years 2yo FTS.
7. Irish Sweepstakes
40K yrlg by 29-222 (10%) 2yo sire; dam won on turf (83K, 0-1 at 2) and has 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-2 sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple SW Ava K (201K); rushed wide to challenge impressive winner before tiring 6/19; logical.
8. Talk to Me
1/2 multiple SP Wild Berry (254K, 2-6 at 2,, 3-20 sprinting), SP router Berrytime (53K, 0-3 at 2, 0-4 sprinting) and SP router Berry Bound (160K, 3-15 sprinting) by 22-169 (13%) 2yo sire; dam a winner (100K, 1-2 at 2, 2-7 sprinting) and has 5 winners from 6 runners (2-5 with 2yos, 2-6 sprinters); chased Schuylerville entrant in fast heat; fits well.
9. Mary's in Utopia
1/2 SP sprinter Amalfi Drive (46K, 1-3 at 2, 3-12 sprinting) by 2-57 (4%) 2yo FTS sire; dam placed sprinting and has 1 winner from 4 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-4 sprinters); female family multiple G2 Valay Maid; barn 0-12 past 5 years with FTS; 6/23 work matches barn's entrant in R3;
1. Irish Sweepstakes
2. Flying K C
3. Talk to Me
Irish Sweepstakes - Flying K C EXACTA
Irish Sweepstakes - Talk to Me EXACTA
1. Elena Strikes
Dam was multiple SW at 2 and has also foaled SW router Mambo Train, multiple G2 router Runway Model and SP Texas Kitty; hard-ridden from start, she tracked 3 wide before taking over; acts like she wants the added distance but needs Beyer boost.
1a. Yes Liz
16K short yearling resold for 200K in April and may be the preferred Pletcher with Johnny V. up; looked good at BEL; battled with 2nd-choice (finished last) early and had that one off bridle after 2F; immediately faced and rebuffed Majestic Serenade's challenge under confident handling; draws good attack post and should be respected.
2. Jonesin for Jerry
DEL win was faster divison of 2F MSW's by almost 2 seconds; battled with Con Gee (next-out 2nd - 56 Beyer) from 2 path over speed-favoring track before drawing out; improved greatly from debut and may be on dead-send from rail; faces tougher pace scenario, but going right way.
3. Silver Valley
25K yearling (16K RNA 2013) was purchased privately following upset win at LS; got an education last time as was bumped at start and then raced inside before splitting rivals in stretch vs. impressive winner; dam a multiple SW sprinter at 2; switches to Rosario with upside but faces toughies.
4. Brazen Persuasion
CD win was almost a full second faster than G3 Bashford Manor for 2yo males on 6/29 card; after being bumped at start, she tracked pacesetter through quick splits before reeling that one in and scoring under a drive; goes out for barn that won this in '08 and '09 with CD maiden winners; contender has valuable experience at distance and should show speed.
Showed immense potential winning debut over 2 next-out grads at CD; after being eased off the rail, she cruised up to press 3 wide and crushed her rivals under motionless Lanerie; daughter of multiple G3 router Flying Glitter is 1/2 to multiple SP sprinter Flying Train; may stalk and pounce from outside as very dangerous contender.
6. True Blue Nation
Put boots to Predicate (entered in R3) at long odds in debut; made lead without a fuss and put away pace rival Chase My Tail (finished 4th) on turn; bit green as briefly hopped onto left lead after being hit right-handed in midstretch; may have to rate vs. quick foes here and gets big test.
2. Brazen Persuasion
3. Jonesin for Jerry
Bahnah - Brazen Persuasion - EXACTA
Bahnah - Jonesin for Jerry - EXACTA
Great work, Dan, as always. I know how much you have to put into it, lol. Michael Slezak, you can find the sires in the PP's. Are you lazy or just need spoon feeding?
Would be nice if you mentioned sires, too!
- 1.Posted 12/02/2013 02:02PM
- 2.Posted 12/02/2013 12:25PM
- 3.Posted 12/01/2013 06:53PM
- 4.Posted 12/01/2013 08:25PM
- 5.Posted 11/30/2013 05:05PM