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Saratoga: Spa Babies 2-year-old picks and analysis for Aug. 28
1 1/8 Miles
Maiden Special Weight
1. FLYING JOE (Sightseeing - American Flier, by Quiet American)
19K yearling, 65K 2yo after 2F work 22.1; 1/2 multiple G3 SW Flying Glitter (597K, 1-2 at 2, 3-6 route) by 14-90 (16%) 2yo sire; SP dam (90K, 2-10 route) has 8 winners from 9 runners (3-7 with 2yos, 4-4 with routers in USA); dam full SW American Heiress (50K, 1-2 at 2, 1-8 route); dam 1/2 multiple SW Joe's Son Joey (441K, 1-3 at 2); barn 1-8 (13%, $1.11 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-time 2yos dirt/turf sprint/route MSW; tried to go with sharp winner on turf; expect early gas here.
2. TALL BOY (Tale of the Cat - Quiet Now, by Tiznow)
425K weanling; 1/2 SP router Irsaal (123K, 1-4 at 2, 2-7 route) by 257-1414 (18%) 2yo sire; dam won route (37K, 1-4 route) with 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-1 routers); dam 1/2 multiple G1 route SW Saint Liam (4.4M, 9-18 route), G3 SW Congressionalhonor (112K, 1-5 route), 2yo G2 route SP American Dance (119K, 1-3 at 2, 2-11 route), G2 route SW Quiet Giant (405K, 7-11 route), SP router Dance Quietly (123K, 1-3 at 2, 2-9 route); barn 1-3 (33%, $2.40 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf-dirt MSW route off 31-60 day layoff; bred to appreciate dirt route.
3. COMMISSIONER (A.P. Indy - Flaming Heart, by Touch Gold)
1/2 G3 SW Laugh Track (243K, 0-1 at 2, 2-3 route) by 175-1075 (16%) 2yo sire; multiple SW dam (245K, 4-8 route) has 3 winners from 4 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 3-4 with routers); dam 1/2 G3 SP sprinter Dash for Money (53K, 1-1 at 2, 0-1 route); barn 3-15 (20%, $2.26 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yo dirt routers MSW; no match for runaway chalk around 2 turns at Monmouth; capable.
4. ASLAN (A.P. Indy - Satin Kiss, by Seeking the Gold)
1/2 turf SP Spellwork (France, 59K, 0-1 at 2, 0-1 main track route) by 175-1075 (16%) 2yo sire; winning dam (352K, 2-4 at 2, 2-3 route) has 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with routers); dam full 2yo G1 turf SW Lujain (England, 139K, 3-4 at 2), G1 SP sprinter Botanical (403K, 1-4 at 2); dam 1/2 multiple turf SW Lilium (England, 2-3 at 2); barn 4-18 (22%, $2.67 ROI) past 5 years 2yos sprint/route dirt MSW; more ground should be fine, but lots of turf in bloodlines.
5. GAINING GROUND (Saint Anddan - Fair Lee Quiet, by Real Quiet)
4.2K weanling; sire 17-158 (11%) 2yos; 1st starter from sprint winner (81K, 0-5 route); barn 0-4 past 5 years 2yos; exits solid turf heat (runner-up returned to win 100K stake at CBY 81 Beyer, 3rd-finisher graduated Spa turf 73 Beyer); must improve.
6. BOLD VISIONARY (Rockport Harbor - Freshwater Pearl, by Alzao)
40K yearling; 1/2 multiple turf SP Pure Incentive (112K, 1-3 at 2, 1-2 route) by 72-500 (14%) 2yo sire; dam 2yo turf SW (73K, 1-2 at 2, 0-1 route) with 5 winners from 9 runners (2-7 with 2yos, 1-5 route); dam full G3 turf SW Alexis (351K, 0-1 route), 2yo turf SW Miss Helga (Ireland), G2 SW Golden Rock (Peru); barn 1-4 (25%, $3.20 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos sprint/route MSW dirt; gave nice effort behind swift sprint winner; respect.
7. SOUPER LUCKY (Giant's Causeway - Slewfoundmoney, by Seeking the Gold)
Sire 86-623 (14%) 2yos; 1st starter from multiple SW dam (184K, 3-7 route); dam 1/2 G3 sprint SW Canadian Frontier (253K); dam full G3 turf SW Seeking Slew (327K, 0-1 at 2); barn 4-18 (22%, $2.67 ROI) past 5 years 2yos sprint/route dirt MSW; improved with Lasix and seems to be moving in the right direction.
8. LIEUTENANT SEANY O (Bluegrass Cat - Lady Lightning, by Birdstone)
50K weanling, 70K yearling, 65K claim 2yo; sire 72-557 (13%) 2yo; 1st starter from unraced dam; dam 1/2 G1 route 2yo SW Stevie Wonderboy (1.0M, 3-5 at 2, 1-2 route), turf SP Queen Joanne (161K, 0-3 at 2, 1-2 route), 2yo G3 turf SW Theyskens' Theory (195K, 2-5 at 2, 0-1 route); barn 0-9 past 5 years 2yos turf-dirt; took some money for debut and raced evenly on grass; interesting.
1. Lieutenant Seany O
2. Bold Visionary
3. Souper Lucky
Lieutenant Seany O to WIN and PLACE at 4-1 odds or greater.
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight (NY-Breds)
1. GRIDLEY HERE (Repent - Chicopee, by Mr. Greeley)
19K short yearling, 60K yearling; 1/2 SP 2yo sprinter Jaw Crusher (45K, 0-4 at 2) by 13-201 (6%) 2yo FTS, 12-181 (7%) 1st-turf sire; dam won sprint (11K) with 0 winners from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos); 2nd dam is SP sprinter Deputy Em (88K, 0-1 turf); barn 1-16 (6%, $3.02 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW turf route Spa; 8/17 work matches Stroll to Victory (2nd MSW turf 67 Beyer 8/24); interesting.
2. BALDERDASH (Grand Slam - Them There Eyes, by Holy Bull)
Sire 52-448 (12%) 2yo FTS, 57-523 (11%) 1st-turf; 1st starter from multiple SW dam (289K, 0-3 at 2, 5-18 turf); dam 1/2 multiple SW My Dinah (450K, 1-3 at 2, 0-6 turf); barn 0-28 past 5 years FTS; jock's 2nd call.
3. TAPIDOR (Tapit - Adorahy, by Rahy)
450K yearling; 1/2 multiple SW Icabad Crane (585K, 1-1 at 2, 0-3 turf) and turf SW Our Golden Dream (149K, 1-4 at 2, 3-16 turf, 1st-turf winner) by 110-734 (15%) 2yo, 24-279 (9%) 1st-turf sire; sprint-winning dam (46K, 0-2 turf) has 7 winners from 9 runners (2-7 2yos, 3-7 with turfers, 1 first-turf winner); dam 1/2 G2 turf SP Adoryphar (141K, 1-3 at turf, 1st-turf winner), SW Adorydar (231K, 1-5 turf, 1st-turf winner), G3 turf SW Adcat (435K, 0-2 at 2, 5-24 turf); barn 1-7 (14%, $1.10 ROI) 2nd-out 2yos dirt/turf sprint/route MSW Spa; too early to give up on.
4. THE MOOCHE (Any Given Saturday - Desafinado, by Pulpit)
Sire 35-237 (15%) 2yo, 31-249 (12%) turf; dam placed turf (14K, 0-5 at 2, 0-3 turf) with 1 winner from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-3 with turfers); dam 1/2 G3 route SW Irving's Baby (763K, 2-8 turf), G2 turf SW Deeliteful Irving (479K, 1-2 at 2, 5-12 turf); barn 0-9 past 5 years turf; didn't have easiest trip; still must improve; jock's 1st call.
5. MOHICAN CHIEF (Broken Vow - Cateleisha, by Smoke Glacken)
Sire 35-321 (11%) 2yo FTS, 39-377 (10%) 1st-turf; winning dam (119Kk, 1-2 at 2, won debut, 0-1 turf) has 0 winners from 1 runner (0-1 with turfers); dam 1/2 SW Luck Abounds (143K, 1-3 at 2, 0-2 turf); dam full multiple SW sprinter Smokieisabandit (304K, 2-5 at 2, won debut); barn 1-3 (33%, $2.63 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS SMSW turf route Spa; 6/13 work went .05 slower than Miss Lech (3rd FTS MSW dirt 45 Beyer 8/9); 6/19 work matches Miss Lech; 8/19 work matches Hamnet (78 polytrack Beyer); must respect barn.
6. BLUEGRASS FLASH (Bluegrass Cat - To Marquet, by Marquetry)
1/2 SP Marquet Cat (386K, 1-6 at 2, 9-42 turf), SW Marquet Madness (226K, 1-5 at 2, 5-20 turf), G1 turf SW Discreet Marq (485K, 2-5 at 2, 5-9 turf) by 72-557 (13%) 2yo, 59-550 (11%) turf sire; multiple sprint SW dam (198K, 1-4 at 2, 0-5 turf) has 3 winners from 6 runners (3-5 with 2yos, 3-6 turfers); dam 1/2 multiple SW sprinter Pretty Imposing (276K, 0-1 at 2, 0-4 turf); barn 2-7 (29%, $1.40 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yo turf routers MSW; off slow debut, made huge wide bid final turn to contend, outfinished by experienced foe; the one to beat.
7. KANT SMOKE (Catienus - Regina Madre, by Cadeaux Genereux)
Sire 16-234 (7%) 2yo FTS, 17-224 (8%) 1st-turf; 1st starter from turf winner (162K, 6-36 turf); dam 1/2 multiple G2 turf SW Giovane Imperatore (Italy, 567K), G2 turf SP Honey Bunny (Italy, 241K), multiple turf SP Principe Di Galles (Italy, 213K); barn 1-35 (3%, $0.59 ROI) past 5 years FTS.
8. JOHN BAILEY (Cosmonaut - Whateverwillbwillb, by Western Expression)
11K weanling; 75K yearling; sire multiple G3 SW (1.3M, 0-1 at 2, 7-29 turf, 1-7 with 2yos, 1-4 with turfers); dam multiple SP (196K, 0-3 at 2, 4-20 turf) and has 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers); dam full turf SP Sax in the City (130K, 1-1 at 2, 3-25 turf); dam 1/2 turf SP Writingonthewall (456K, 5-21 turf); barn 0-5 past 5 years 2yos turf; should be on or near lead with addition of blinkers; not out of this.
9. BLUE PIGEON (Mizzen Mast - Gdansking Queen, by Langfuhr)
Sire 15-191 (8%) 2yo FTS, 31-274 (11%) 1st-turf; 1st starter from turf winner (35K, 3-5 turf); 3rd dam SW Victorious Lil (170K, 1-4 at 2, 2-11 turf); female family multiple G1 SW router Victory Gallop (3.0M, 3-5 at 2); barn 1-7 (14%, $2.02 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS SMSW turf route Spa; solid bloodlines
10. REWRITE HISTORY (Big Brown - Champagne Lass, by Bright Launch)
30K short yearling, 65K yearling; sire 9-33 (27%) 2yo FTS, 6-33 (18%) 1st-turf; 1st starter from sprint winner (60K, 0-3 at 2, 0-2 turf); dam full 2yo SW sprinter Launch a Double (134K, 2-6 at 2, 0-1 turf), SW Turn to Lass (138K, 2-4 at 2, won debut), multiple G3 SW Spotsgone (659K, 1-5 at 2, 1-3 turf, 1st-turf winner); barn 2-3, $11.26 past 5 years 2yo FTS SMSW turf route Spa; 6/21, 6/28, 7/5, 7/12, 7/26, 8/2 works matches Hard Rumor (4th FTS SMSW dirt 23 Beyer 8/14); 8/16 work matches Sam's Buck (4th 20K 'beaten' claimer turf 72 Beyer 8/22); jock's 2nd call.
11. COOL IT (Repent - Pierpont Account, by Private Account)
1/2 SP Livin Large (221K, 4-28 turf) by 87-744 (12%) 2yo, 65-718 (9%) turf; mud/route-winning dam (13K) has 8 winners from 12 runners (2-6 2yos, 3-9 with turfers); 2nd dam SP sprinter Whidah (54K, 1-1 at 2); barn 1-21 (5%, $9.23 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf route; gave improved effort when stretched out on grass; jock's 1st call.
12. WAKE UP IN MALIBU (Malibu Moon - Wake Up Kiss, by Cure the Blues)
100K yearling; 1/2 G1 SW A Shin Forward (Japan, 3.4M, 2-3 at 2, won debut, 0-3 sprint) by 57-361 (16%) 2yo FTS sire; dam multiple turf SW (248K, 0-2 sprint) with 3 winners from 3 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 2 FTS winners, 0-1 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple SP Pearly White (177K, 1-4 sprint), multiple SP Morning Gallop (299K, 0-4 at 2, 1-7 sprint); barn 1-5 (20%, $1.66 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS SMSW dirt sprint Spa; jock's 2nd call
13. GROUPTHINK (Majestic Warrior - Road to Mandalay, by Sea of Secrets)
220K yearling; 1/2 SW La Concerto (248K, 1-4 at 2, 7-16 sprint), SP Game Token (296K, 0-1 at 2, 5-41 sprint) by 29-221 (13%) 2yo sire; SW dam (98K, 1-3 at 2, 2-13 sprint) has 3 winners from 5 runners (1-4 with 2yos, 3-5 sprinters); dam 1/2 G3-placed Justice for Auston (394K, 0-5 at 2, 0-14 sprint), SW Lune Rouge (132K, 1-3 at 2, 1-11 sprint); barn 0-10 past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos MSW dirt sprint; jock's 1st call.
14. AMERICAN CREED (Quiet American - Thin Disguise, by Yes It's True)
115K weanling, 155K RNA yearling; sire 131-1269 (10%) 2yo; 1st starter from route winner (45K, 0-2 sprint); dam 1/2 G3 SW Naughty New Yorker (1.0M, 2-6 at 2, 1-6 sprint), SW router Pupil (204K, 0-1 sprint); barn 1-15 (7%, $0.48 ROI) past 5 years 2yos turf/dirt
SELECTIONS (TURF ONLY):
1. Mohican Chief
2. John Bailey
3. Bluegrass Flash
THE PLAY (TURF ONLY):
Mohican Chief to WIN at 7-2 odds or greater
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
1. SLEEK (Bernardini - Satin Smooth, by Giant's Causeway)
Sire 12-103 (12%) 2yo FTS; unraced dam has 2 winners from 3 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 0-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G2 sprint SW True Quality (288K, 5-13 sprint), G3 turf SP Long Face (156K, 1-2 at 2); barn 2-3 (67%, $5.03 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS SMSW dirt sprint Spa; 6/13, 7/6 works went .01 faster than Mei Ling (3rd FTS MSW 8/25); 7/12 work went .01 slower than Mei Ling; 7/25, 8/12 works match Mei Ling; 7/31 work matches Artemis Agrotera (1st FTS SMSW 86 Beyer 8/16); respect barn.
1A. LONGRIDE TO WISDOM (Harlan's Holiday - Clever Idea, by Matchlite)
Sire 42-288 (15%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from multiple SW dam (136K, 2-6 at 2, won debut, 3-12 sprint); dam 1/2 SP 2yo sprinter Fortune in Gold (21K, 1-6 at 2, 2-12 sprint); barn 2-19 (11%, $1.75 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS SMSW dirt sprint
2. SELENITE (Cosmonaut - Offhand Remark, by Western Expression)
11K yearling, 20K 2yo after 1F work 10.3; sire multiple G3 SW (1.3M, 0-1 at 2, 0-2 sprint, 0-3 with 2yo FTS); 1st starter from turf winner (103K, 0-1 sprint); dam 1/2 SW 2yo Seeyouinmydreams (119K, 2-4 at 2, won debut, 2-6 sprint); barn 0-12 past 5 years 2yo FTS SMSW dirt sprint; 8/4 work matches Chrysolite (6th 2yo FTS SMSW 38 Beyer 8/8); 8/11 work matches Indy Sea (9th AN1X turf 71 Beyer 8/24)
3. ON A SNOWY EVENING (Frost Giant - Rhubarb Red, by Carson City)
30K yearling; sire 3-17 (18%) 2yo FTS; dam 2yo SW (83K, 1-5 at 2, 3-20 sprint) with 3 winners from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 3-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 turf SP 2yo Southey (125K, 1-7 at 2, 0-3 sprint); barn 0-13 past 5 years FTS dirt; 8/17 work matches Twillerbee (71 Beyer top);
4. CRYPTIC COMET (Greeley's Galaxy - High Falutin Gal, by Silver Deputy)
13K yearling; 55K 2yo after 1F work 10.2; sire 8-121 (7%) 2yos; unraced dam has 1 winner from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 SP 2yo sprint Tipperary Melody (68K, 1-6 at 2, 1-6 sprint); barn 0-13 past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos dirt; certainly a contender following solid debut.
5. M0LLY JORDAN (Pioneerof the Nile - Charleston Springs, by Capote)
35K yearling; 1/2 SP sprinter Palmetto Bluffs (82K, 1-4 at 2, 1-12 sprint) by multiple G1 route SW (1.6M, 2-5 at 2, 4-16 with 2yos); SP dam (60K, 0-3 at 2, 1-8 sprint) with 5 winners from 6 runners (1-5 with 2yos, 3-6 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple turf SW Tangier Sound (265K, 0-9 sprint), multiple SW sprinter Livermore Valley (330K, 6-21 sprint); barn 1-9 (11%, $0.45 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos SMSW dirt sprint; must improve.
6. LADY RHUBARB (Wild Desert - Ravishly, by Gold Case)
52K 2yo after 1F work 10.1; sire 0-25 2yo FTS; dam won sprint at 2 (27K, 1-3 at 2, 1-7 sprint) with 2 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with sprinters); 3rd dam is 2yo SW sprinter Executive Row (68K, 2-6 at 2, won debut, 2-5 sprint); barn 1-13 (8%, $0.72 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS SMSW dirt sprint Spa
7. TALK TO ME (A. P. Warrior - Deer Berry, by Deerhound)
1/2 multiple SP Wild Berry (254K, 2-6 at 2, 3-20 sprint), SP router Berrytime (53K, 0-3 at 2, 0-4 sprint) and SP router Berry Bound (160K, 3-15 sprint) by 24-183 (13%) 2yo sire; winning dam (100K, 1-2 at 2, 2-7 sprint) with 5 winners from 6 runners (2-5 with 2yos, 2-6 with sprinters); 3rd dam multiple SW Cherry Berry (115K); barn 13-71 (18%, $1.45 ROI) past 5 years turf/dirt; 2nd best to big chalk 2 back; perhaps more speed.
8. CANAL SIX (Noble Causeway - Prom Dancer, by Touch Gold)
Sire 18-189 (10%) 2yos; unraced dam has 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters); 2nd dam SW Prominent Feather (270K, 0-4 at 2); barn 0-3 with 2yos; rallied vs. dropper from Monmouth; capable with race under the belt.
9. MISS NARCISSIST (Freud - Mighty Good, by Good and Tough)
47K RNA yearling; 97K 2yo after 3F work 33.3; sire 88-613 (14%) 2yo; dam won sprint (86K, 1-5 at 2, 4-22 sprint) and has 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-2 sprinters); dam 1/2 SW sprinter Mighty Eros (95K, 2-6 sprint), 2yo SP sprinter Think I'm Hooked (90K, 1-6 at 2, 2-19 sprint); barn 25-136 (18%, $1.50 ROI) past 5 years 2yos dirt; bet hard for debut, but acted up a bit behind gate; blinks may help focus.
2. On a Snowy Evening
3. Cryptic Comet
Sleek – On a Snowy Evening EXACTA
Sleek – Cryptic Comet EXACTA
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
P. G. Johnson Stakes
1. GRANNY MC'S KITTEN (Kitten's Joy - Granny Franny, by Grand Slam)
Full sister to G2 turf SW Kitten's Dumplings (451K) broke poorly in career debut and settled near the back of the field behind moderate fractions; came with a strong wide rally on the final turn, but was turned back by Miss Frost after looming boldly in the final furlong; draws a better post position for this spot and may get a bit more pace to attack this time around; can't ignore.
2. CHASE MY TAIL (Tale of the Cat - Celestial Star, by Kissin Kris)
Sire is 55-540 (10%) with 1st-turfers; dam won twice on turf and has foaled 2 turf winners from 4 turf starters; barn is 0-7 over the past 5 years with 2yos going dirt to turf; aided by a drop into maiden claiming company, but now must stretch out 3 furlongs for initial grass outing; don't be surprised if she shows good early speed from her inside post, but she'll have to step up her game.
3. DUFF ONE (Harlan's Holiday - Acadiana, by Tiznow)
Showed some promise in her turf debut after breaking very awkwardly; was buried down inside near the rear of the field, but rallied willingly when switched to the outside; finished well despite switching to her left lead in the final eighth; nosed out Shine a Spotlight (next-out 4th over turf in Sunday maiden) in off-the-turf sprint and should appreciate extra distance; needs Beyer boost.
4. CANDY KITTY (Lemon Drop Kid - Worthy Cat, by Tale of the Cat)
Turned the tables on talented maiden Kitten Kaboodle after walking on the lead; two back, she was forced to prompt the pace while wide and lost significant ground on the turn; Pletcher-trained filly wheels back in 10 days, but it's unlikely she'll get a similar easy trip on the lead this afternoon; still should be close to the pace and figures prominently when the real racing begins; capable.
5. LA MEJOR FIESTA (Harlan's Holiday - Better Now, by Thunder Gulch)
Broke a half-step slow in the Tippett, but recovered to track the 3 pacesetters while 3 wide; came four deep turning for home and was easily second-best behind favored debutante Thank You Marylou (returned to finish second in the Adirondack on dirt); although she has yet to race beyond 5 1/2 furlongs, her dam was a graded stakes winner going long; may be best played on bottom of exotics.
6. LA REINE BOURBON (Leroidesanimaux - Gratorious, by Honor Grades)
This filly received a perfect trip when winning her debut here on August 4; broke nicely and settled into the pocket behind a pair of eager pacesetters and shot up the inside when a seam opened in midstretch; at least she wasn't gun shy when the opportunity presented itself and she handled today's distance without any fuss; has the tactical speed to work out another good trip off the leaders and must be respected for excellent barn.
7. MISS FROST (Curlin - Allencat, by Storm Cat)
Very green in her debut on dirt at Belmont, but improved greatly when switched to grass and stretched out in distance; tracked lone pacesetter Macaroon and inherited the lead early on the 2nd turn when that one stopped badly; opened up a clear lead and gamely turned back Granny Mc's Kitten in the stretch; that race came back quick and she'll get Lasix for the first time today; contender.
8. TRUE BLUE NATION (Bluegrass Cat - Truly Spectacular, by Yes It's True)
MTO entrant upset Candy Kitty in front-running fashion at Belmont, but it's worth noting that all 4 dirt races that day were won by speed/pressers; didn't do much in the Grade 3 Schuylerville when unable to get into the race early; seems well-placed if this race comes off the turf and must be considered if she gets to start.
SELECTIONS (TURF ONLY):
1. Granny Mc’s Kitten
2. Miss Frost
3. Candy Kitty
THE PLAY (TURF ONLY):
Granny Mc’s Kitten – Miss Frost – EXACTA
Granny Mc’s Kitten – Candy Kitty EXACTA