08/16/2013 2:03PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies 2-year-old picks and analysis for Aug. 17

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Race 2
6 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse 80,000

1. REBRANDED (Tiznow - Bayou Breeze, by A.P. Indy)
140K RNA yearling, 350K 2yo after 1F work 10.3; sire 22-291 (8%) 2yo FTS; dam route SW (113K, 0-1 at 2, 0-1 sprint) with 2 winners from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 2-2 with sprinters); dam 3/4 SW router Meteorologist (Japan, 1.2M, 0-2 sprint); barn 35-96 (36%, $2.77 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa;  7/15 work matches All In Blue (4th G2 Sanford 61 Beyer 7/21); 7/22 work matches Enquete (1st FTS MSW 61 Beyer 8/4); 8/4 work matches Sound of Freedom (2nd FTS MSW 81 Beyer 8/10); 8/11 work matches Tiz Chris (65 Beyer); can't ignore Pletcher.

2. STRONG MANDATE (Tiznow - Clear Mandate, by Deputy Minister)
200K yearling; 1/2 SW Full Mandate (192K, 0-2 at 2, 1-2 sprints), multiple G3 SW Newfoundland (677K, 1-4 at 2, 0-1 sprint), multiple G2 turf SP 2yo The Mighty Tiger (65K, 1-4 at 2) by 96-719 (13%) 2yo sire; multiple G1-winning dam (1.0M, 1-2 at 2, 4-10 sprints) has 8 winners from 10 runners (2-6 2yos, 2-9 sprinters); dam 1/2 G2 SW Dream Scheme (431K, 4-18 sprint), SP router Miss Kate (144K, 1-4 at 2, 1-5 sprint), SP Special Event (111K, 2-10 sprint), multiple turf SW A Diehl (465K, 0-1 at 2, 2-22 sprint); barn 0-10 past 5 years 2nd-out 2yos adding blinkers dirt; faced sharp winner and can improve.

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3. TAPITURE (Tapit - Free Spin, by Olympio)
Full 2yo SW sprinter Retap (230K, 2-6 at 2, won debut, 3-19 sprint), multiple SW Remit (257K, 1-2 at 2, 0-1 sprint) by 32-254 (13%) 2yo FTS sire; dam won sprint (91K, 3-4 sprint) with 3 winners from 3 runners (2-2 with 2yos, 1 FTS winner, 2-3 sprinters); dam 1/2 SP 2yo Germs (0-4 at 2, 3-12 sprint); barn 8-38 (21%, $1.68 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa.

4. CRESCENT (More Than Ready - Lovely Isle, by Double Honor)
215K yearling by 171-1178 (15%) 2yo sire; 1st starter from SW sprinter (286K, 2-2 at 2, 5-12 sprint); female family multiple SW Fast Lane Gal (91K, 9-18 sprint); barn 4-18 (22%, $2.73 ROI) past 5 years 2nd-out 2yo MSW dirt sprint Spa; rallied into fast splits when 2nd to next-out 82-Beyer Saratoga Special winner; very logical.

5. LONG STATION (Smoke Glacken - Westline, by Gone West)
30K short yearling, 85K yearling; sire 61-355 (17%) 2yo FTS; 1st starter from sprint winner (47K, 1-7 at 2, 1-9 sprint); female family multiple G1 SW Excellent Meeting (1.4M, 4-8 at 2, 2-5 sprint); barn 0-17 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; 8/10 work matches Darwin's Dream (entered Thurs. R3)

6. LONG WATER (Elusive Quality - Round Pond, by Awesome Again)
Sire 43-267 (16%) 2yo FTS; dam multiple G1 route SW (1.9M, 2-3 sprint) with 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters); dam 1/2 SP Drama Lady (146K, 2-8 sprint); barn 8-46 (17%, $1.61 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; 6/27, 7/26, 8/1 works match Point Hope (5th FTS MSW 55 Beyer 8/10)

7. PERMANENT CAMPAIGN (Sky Mesa - Trophy, by Grand Slam)
62.5K yearling, 130K 2yo after 1F work 10.1; sire 104-568 (18%) 2yos; 1st starter from unraced dam; dam 1/2 multiple G1 sprint SW Lady Tak (1.1M, 2-2 at 2, 8-11 sprint); barn 6-15 (40%, $2.23 ROI) past 5 years 2yos off 31-60 day layoff in MSW dirt sprint; improved when 2nd to Saratoga Special 3rd-finisher; capable.

8. FIRST BID (Street Sense -Feathered Diamond, by A.P. Indy)
180K yearling; sire 10-73 (14%) 2yo FTS; dam route winner (44K, 0-1 at 2, 0-1 sprint) with 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters); dam 1/2 multiple 2yo SW Dixieland Diamond (297K, 4-5 at 2, won debut, 0-2 sprint), G3 SP Sky Diamond (539K, 2-9 sprint); barn 4-20 (20%, $2.03 ROI) past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; interesting.

9. TONY B (Old Fashioned - Teruko, by Coronado's Quest)
100K yearling, 500K 2yo after 2F work 21.2; 1/2 multiple SW sprinter Safe Trip (293K, 0-1 at 2, 6-20 sprint) by 2yo G2 SW router (583K, 3-3 at 2, 1-1 sprint, 1-10, 10% 2yo FTS); dam route winner (22K, 0-3 sprint) with 2 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 2-2 with sprinters); dam 1/2 G3 SP router Erin Moor (130K, 2-5 at 2, 1-8 sprint), G3 SW sprinter Willa On the Move (363K, 6-9 sprint); barn 0-49 past 5 years 2yo FTS MSW dirt sprint Spa; 6/22, 7/18 works match Borseggiatore (8th FTS MSW 47 Beyer 8/10); 7/26 work went .01 slower than Tightly Bridled (5th FTS MSW 9 Beyer 8/5)

SELECTIONS:
1. First Bid
2. Crescent
3. Permanent Campaign

THE PLAY:
First Bid to WIN and PLACE at 9-2 odds or greater