07/19/2013 4:25PM

Saratoga: Saturday graded stakes analysis from Litfin, Watchmaker, Welsch

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Shuvee Handicap

DAVE LITFIN

Authenticity
Sea Island
Eblouissante

Analysis: Authenticity and Summer Applause, the first two morning-line choices, were cross-entered in the Delaware Handicap. Authenticity is expected to stay at home for the Shuvee, while Summer Applause will ship south to take on Royal Delta.

Under that scenario, Authenticity will be the only graded stakes winner in a six-horse field, and she will be coming off a freshening after two very game performances in the La Troienne and the Ogden Phipps.

On paper, Authenticity will be difficult to deny at a short price. The intriguing aspect of the race will be Eblouissante, a half-sister to Zenyatta, who will be making just her third career start, and her first since winning a first-level allowance in January. Trainer John Shirreffs indicated he will also enter her in an allowance race scheduled for Monday, but will likely opt for the Shuvee.

It’s wide open for second, so if Eblouissante is overbet, exactas keying the favorite over Sea Island, Royal Lahaina and Flashy American could be the way to go.

MIKE WATCHMAKER

Authenticity
Summer Applause
Eblouissante

Analysis: The only thing saving this from being a totally unbettable race is Eblouissante is likely to be a much lower price than she should be. Even though she won both of her starts, Eblouissante will have to improve many lengths over what she has shown so far to compete with Authenticity. But she will be bet primarily because she is a half-sister to Horse of the Year Zenyatta. That said, Authenticity will still be a heavy favorite who will be tough to beat. She was really good in her last two starts, beating Grade 1 Apple Blossom winner On Fire Baby in the La Trioenne, and losing a narrow decision to Tiz Miz Sue in the Grade 1 Phipps most recently.

MIKE WELSCH

Authenticity
Flashy American
Royal Lahaina

Analysis: Authenticity has continued to flourish as the season has progressed and she should have a pace advantage over this field which lacks much in the way of any real early speed. Looked good blowing out for the race in company with stable mate Princess of Sylmar on Sunday. Flashy American another filly who seems to be improving with every start and with a win at this distance over the track last summer. Looked sharp working five eighths, galloping out strong six panels at Oklahoma last Saturday. Lures Rosario. One to beat. Royal Lahaina has won three of her last four but overmatched in her only try against graded stakes company.

Coaching Club American Oaks

DAVE LITFIN

Unlimited Budget
Princess of Sylmar
My Happy Face

Analysis: Unlimited Budget comes off a credible try in the Belmont Stakes when strung out six wide around the first turn, and is back with fillies, where her only loss from five starts came in the Kentucky Oaks against her stablemate, Princess of Sylmar.

Unlimited Budget can beat you in several different ways: she won the Demoiselle wire to wire, the Rachel Alexandra from nine lengths behind, and the Fair Grounds Oaks with stalking tactics.

Princess of Sylmar has been freshened since her 38-1 upset in the Ky. Oaks, her fifth win from six starts around two turns. She is using this race as a bridge to the Alabama, in much the same way her runner-up finish in the Gazelle off a two-month break propelled her into the Oaks.

My Happy Face showed class and gameness in the Frizette and Tempted last fall, and recently returned from a layoff with a good-looking score in an overnight stake for new trainer Chad Brown. This will be her first two-turn start, but she gives every indication it is within her scope.

For multi-race exotic purposes, using those three probably locks up the race, unless Cue the Moon, who fought My Happy Face tooth and nail in the Tempted, improves several lengths first time in blinkers.

MIKE WATCHMAKER

My Happy Face
Unlimited Budget
Princess of Sylmar

Analysis: Princess of Sylmar and Unlimited Budget are worthy favorites, but have vulnerabilities. Princess of Sylmar might not get the pace set up she got when she upset the Kentucky Oaks, and she might peak after this comeback in the Alabama later in the Saratoga meet. Unlimited Budget must show she has rebounded from what had to be a taxing effort against males in the Belmont Stakes. I like My Happy Face, who impressed winning recently off a layoff in her first start for Chad Brown. My Happy Face won big over the track last year, is capable of being the controlling speed here, yet can rate if Cue the Moon guns with blinkers on.

MIKE WELSCH

My Happy Face
Unlimited Budget
Princess of Sylmar

Analysis: My Happy Face has yet to run a poor one and comes off her best yet from a figures standpoint first time out for Brown when cruising to easy overnight stakes tally downstate. Should prove controlling speed from the rail, may stand some catching if able to handle the added ground. Unlimited Budget disappointed a bit in the Oaks, tried boys in the Belmont, back in her own element today, best certainly good enough to beat these. Princess of Sylmar has been freshened since winning the Oaks and obviously has no issue with the distance. Blew out nicely in company with Authenticity on Sunday. A logical choice.

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Henry Vincent More than 1 year ago
royal lahaina at the weights should go well against these,she is the fastest . this is my call