07/25/2013 8:01PM

Saratoga: Dave Litfin's Analysis July 27, 2013

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Dave Litfin's Analysis [BEST BET: Kauai Katie, Race 5 )]

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1 The venerable CAIXA ELETRONICA has notched two of his 21 wins at 1 1/8 miles, successfully shouldering 131 pounds in a Saratoga starter handicap two years ago, and taking down his richest payday in the 2012 Charles Town Classic; hasn't lost in non-graded stakes company in two years. AU MOON has won his last three dirt starts at three tracks with varying pace tactics; wasn't helped by the post position draw. POINT TAKEN gave it the old college try vs. the top pick last month but was turned away; suspect at the distance. Closer Looks >>
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2 BOBBY'S KITTEN has an exceptionally strong turf family on the dam side that traces back to North Of Eden, who produced a bevy of multiple stakes winners topped by champion Paradise Creek; bullet works on dirt and synthetic. BASE CASE SCENARIO has the benefit of a sprint start under his belt; half-brother to two grass winners posted an improved workout on turf Monday. DIVORCE PARTY is out of Pink Champagne, a Grade 3 turf stakes winner who has thrown three multiple winners from as many to start. Closer Looks >>
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3 SKY DRAMA finished a clear second in debut over stablemate Big Sugar Soda, who came back to win big here Monday; workouts of July 7 & 14 match up with 'Soda. TWANG was against grain of a speed-favoring track chasing even-money Conquest Two Step in Churchill bow; runner-up came back to win by open lengths at Ellis Park. BAY OF BISCAY was a $750K yearling buy for owner-trainer combination that sent out 2-year-old firster Corfu ($3) to win Thursday; dam has produced Warning Flag, an earner of $1.2 million on grass in Hong Kong. Closer Looks >>
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4 UNITARIAN was a clear second in both 1 1/4-mile starts at Belmont, each time running a sharp final quarter, and beating everyone else in today's field who has already run on turf; blinkers today. PARNELLI is third back from a layoff after finishing evenly behind the choice; eligible to improve with first-time Lasix. SUPREME COMMANDER passed four rivals when unveiled on dirt at Belmont; dam Perfect Sting was champion grass mare of 2000. Closer Looks >>
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5 KAUAI KATIE was entered but scratched from the recent Victory Ride so as to arrive to her main objective fresh - and why not, since she is 4 for 4 off workouts including both 100 Beyers; moves outside after tough-trip Acorn from the rail. WILDCAT LILY is the only other entrant to have reached the 90 mark, and she did so recently in the 10th & 11th starts of what has been a very busy 3-year-old campaign; posted a bullet work ranked 1/98 before leaving Florida. SO MANY WAYS has won four of five sprints, the lone blemish when off poorly first time back from a six-month layoff; 2012 Schuylerville and Spinaway winner outkicked IRISH LUTE to win the Eight Belles off a similar turnback. Closer Looks >>
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6 A 6-year-old with just eight starts, WINNING TOUCH obviously has issues, but that hasn't kept him from running Beyers in the 85-98 range all seven dirt starts, beginning with debut win here three years ago; inclined to forgive recent comeback at Arlington vs. Mish Mosh, who has won six of eight on that synthetic surface. ALCOMATCH held good form through spring and early summer at Belmont on turf and in slop; versatile, hard-knocking old pro is the closest fit to the date restriction. NON STOP is intriguing as he goes first off a claim and returns to dirt for first time since the fall of 2011 at Parx, when he won back to back before a pair of fourth-place finishers behind repeaters. Closer Looks >>
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7 FAVOR FACTOR unleashed a fast final furlong passing five horses for maiden sprint win first out at 3; might've been best at this level a few weeks later when in traffic and forced to alter course through another very strong final fraction. CANTONIC is reunited with Rosie Napravnik, for whom he won four in a row last year highlighted by lifetime top Beyer this course & distance; the knock is he's a 7-year-old still eligible for preliminary allowance conditions. INDY SEA is second back from an extended absence after useful effort finishing evenly behind Hear the Footsteps, who is 3 for 3 this year; potential pace factor with FOLK SINGER and KING BALTHASAR. Closer Looks >>
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8 KRIS ROYAL returns to Saratoga, where he overcame post 11 to win under confident handling last summer; tough spot making seasonal bow in $100K stake vs. A Diehl, a stakes seasoned earner of $465K. ETERNAL RULER was up for second twice when returned to New York in the spring, then ran his fastest race to date when a gaining fourth sprinting behind Strong Impact, who won last Sunday's $100K Fiddlers Patriot; should get ample pace due to the presence of FILM SHOT, SARAVA'S DANCER and PLAINVIEW. The latter can obviously be excused latest in the Manhattan; speedball's four wins for this barn include a huge 98 Beyer first out this season. Closer Looks >>
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9 CENTRE COURT encountered non-firm turf for the first time when hemmed in at a crucial juncture of the Just A Game - the only time she has ever been worse than second on grass; training up a storm locally by all accounts. STEPHANIE'S KITTEN beat Centre Court with a dream run up the rail in the Just A Game, and traded close decisions with that rival here last summer in the Lake George and Lake Placid; raised her game several lengths winning both starts at 4. DAYATTHESPA may try to steal this on the front end, tactics that won her the QEII over Centre Court last fall; couldn't contain LAUGHING as the 2-5 choice in the Eatontown second time back from a disastrous trip in the Matriarch. Closer Looks >>
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10 After some tough luck early on the Triple Crown trail climaxed by a run-off with blinkers on in the Kentucky Derby, things finally fell into place for PALACE MALICE in the Belmont Stakes when he wrested command after a mile and held the Derby and Preakness winners at bay; he has trained forwardly in the seven weeks since then, and projects for a stalking trip behind FREEDOM CHILD and MORENO, the front-end winners of the Peter Pan and Dwyer. MYLUTE improved in three starts with blinkers removed and a change to deep-closing tactics, running consecutive Beyer tops in the Derby and Preakness (nearly getting second in the latter); stands to benefit if a spirited pace duel develops. CODE WEST edged Palace Malice in the Risen Star and has held good form since then, capped by game score in the Matt Winn; faltered in lone try past 1 1/16 miles. Closer Looks >>
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11 CHRISTIESBORNTORUN has been freshened since tough trip in off-the-turfer vs. odds-on Reload when wedged between rivals and bumped by eventual runner-up nearing stretch; exacta finishes all grass starts except for last year's My Frenchman Stakes vs. Chamberlain Bridge, a BC Turf Sprint winner. JESS NOT JESSE has been sidelined 10 months but has a history of running well fresh, including 2008 debut win at Saratoga and back-to-back wins here off a similar hiatus last year; main threat if able to draw in. BROWN INDIAN engaged in a prolonged battle for the lead with YIELD BOGEY first out in seven months; notched lone win of 2012 in a similar second-off-the-bench situation. Closer Looks >>
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