07/22/2013 5:01PM

Saratoga: Dave Litfin's Analysis July 24, 2013


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Dave Litfin’s Analysis [BEST BET: Work N Flirt (5th race)]


1 MUCH STRONGER has been away nearly six weeks since a second straight disappointing race in the mud, but has won twice previously when fresh, and his last two fast-track performances stand out; class drop. DIGHTON withstood a 10-race juvenile campaign to come back faster as a 3-year-old, capped by pair of gutsy victories at Belmont on sealed wet tracks; could get a favorable pace scenario if the top pick comes under fire early from TEN ITEMS OR LESS and/or DATTTS HAPPY. The latter has had a variety of excuses since maiden win; good try in the slop vs. LEILANI'S TICKET lone Belmont outing this spring. DRF Picks >>
2 PROFETIZA appears to enjoy a tactical edge as the likely pacesetter in a short field, and the daughter of A.P. Indy should relish stretching out to 1 1/8 miles; off last in debut, hasn't lost since. MONTANA NATIVE has posted 80+ Beyers in all four of her dirt races with Lasix, and there is only one other such figure in the lineup; sharp workout upon arrival at the Spa. FLASH FORWARDhas graded-stakes experience and has been the distance; exhibits a good figure pattern after edging forward to a new top in second start of current form cycle. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
3 TOWN HALL won right back with a new Beyer top after being claimed from maiden victory, and subsequently put in a five-wide move on the turn against allowance foes; projects to be more forwardly placed adding blinkers from the rail. NEVADA is the lone entrant with experience over the track, a runner-up finish behind multiple stakes winner Overanalyze when unveiled last summer; it may pay to forgive latest on turf, particularly if he catches a wet track. BEDOUIN NOW has improved in three starts on fast and sloppy tracks and on grass since claimed by his current connections; solid turf-to-dirt numbers (34% wins) for Jamie Ness in 2012-13. DRF Picks >>
4 CALLANA has shot and missed twice with different pace tactics, but the filly that beat her first out, Midnight Watch, came right back to win an allowance, and two that finished behind her came back to win as well; beaten choice rates one more chance. CELTIC ARCH rallied wide and finished with good energy to just miss the show spot behind Callana last out; blew out sharply last Friday.GO BABY GO GO got no pace at Ellis Park last summer and ran her last quarter in under 23 seconds to pick up third money behind 11-10 winner Noun; the race's fourth finisher, Pure Fun, closed out her 2YO season winning the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
5 WORK N FLIRT makes the third start of her form cycle after flashing speed in a pair of special-weight sprints, beginning with comeback vs. Bridgehampton, who was recently second in the Grade 3 Victory Ride; massive dropdown should boss this crew.MAMA ZEE was within two lengths of the lead for twice today's claiming price when unveiled in an off-the-turfer three weeks ago; any improvement probably lands her somewhere on the board. RETTALFA has a steady if unspectacular set of consistent performances that make her a logical intrarace exotics inclusion. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >> Leg 1 of Pick 6 >>
6 VITORIA OLIMPICA is from the same Brazilian-based operation that produced 2005 grass champion Leroidesanimaux, and makes his Northern Hemisphere debut with first-time Lasix after having run on nothing but soft and heavy turf in his native land; cozy inside post in a largely paceless matchup. MR. COMMONS has run exclusively in G1 or G2 stakes in his last 13 starts dating to Aug. 2011, including four most recent outings vs. the top two turf milers in the nation; double knocks are a tough draw on the heels of his two lowest figures in a while to start 2013. BEAU CHOIX is a hard-nosed campaigner who missed in a head bob to PARIS VEGAS on yielding Spa ground last summer; needs some pace up front. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
7 MY COUSIN ZINNY tried to get on turf three times downstate to no avail; she has improved since new trainer Danny Gargan equipped her with blinkers, and boasts the best grass pedigree in the field. BLUE BALLERINA has been in the money four times in a row since a late-winter freshening, handling a variety of surfaces equally well; down to $25K for the first time. CORINTHIANNA is down in class & distance, and may perhaps find her niche in turf sprints after setting/forcing the early issue in four routes vs. better. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
8 GIRL CODE has been on the improve since switching back to dirt for her new owner-trainer, smashing preliminary allowance rivals at this distance, and setting the pace against odds-on My Happy Face, who returned to run second in the Grade 1 CCA Oaks; must run down JAN'S PERFECT STAR. The latter owns the two best Beyers, although her up-and-down pattern from four outings makes her somewhat hard to gauge; caught wide when taken out of best game at Prairie Meadows prior to freshening. MOMENT IN DIXIE has been defeated at 3-5, 4-5 & 7-5 since winning first two at Belmont more than a year ago; the half-full view is she beat subsequent Victory Ride winner Baby J when second best in seasonal bow. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
9 KITTEN'S DUMPLINGS raised her game several lengths in two starts at Churchill Downs, finishing with a flourish to win the Edgewood and Regret with wide-sweeping moves; another sharp work 10 days ago indicates she retains top form.WATSDACHANCES returns to Saratoga's inner course, where she gamely won U.S. debut in the P.G. Johnson; compromised by lack of pace behind loose-on-the-lead Discreet Marq in Sands Point. TAPICAT, BLOSSOM'S TRAIL and MAXIMOVA are a combined 9 for 9 on grass. Tapicat may have her hands full early battling with MIDNIGHT WATCH, who is 2 for 2 on Lasix. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>
10 A recent pratfall as the 2-5 choice at Penn National suggests the best situation for SHOW SOME LOVIN is to have the early lead on firm turf, neither of which he got in that debacle; handled mud fairly well three back, so he remains the choice in the event of a surface change. COWBOY PRINCE also exits special-weight company; figures in the mix off his initial grass try at seven furlongs.LASSO comes off four consecutive losses at 2-1 or lower, but the last two figures are tops in the field; obvious threat. WHERE'S DANNY is second-time Lasix after running out of ground at 7Fs in U.S. debut; fits well despite nominal price hike. Closer Looks >>
DRF Picks >>