07/20/2013 3:58PM

Saratoga: Dave Litfin's Analysis July 22, 2013

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Dave Litfin's Analysis [BEST BET: Mongol Boss, 4th Race)]

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1 FINANCIAL MOGUL, a $185K weanling buy, is a half-brother to six winners including Bear in the Woods, a Grade 1-placed sprinter; encouraging work tab. PECORINO sold for $130K after quick under-tack furlong in 10.20 seconds in March; dam's four runners are a combined 2 for 33. BIG SUGAR SODA is out of Squeakums, a half-sister to six-time graded stakes-winning sprinter Randaroo; chased a 7-5 wire winner in Churchill bow. Closer Looks >>
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2 WHOMPING WILLOW showed good early speed in a pair of June placings at Churchill Downs, beginning with debut vs. Bahnah, who dead-heated for the win in Friday's Schuylerville Stakes; zipped over the Oklahoma turf course last week. READY TO ACT is out of Always Auditioning, a half-sister to Hollywood Gold Cup wiinner Mast Track; likely to go well for win-early connections. SUPER SKY a $235K April purchase with three local turf works under her belt; dam's six winners include Princess Arabella, who won all three of her starts capped by the Sunland Park Oaks. Closer Looks >>
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3 Several of these sprinters fit the date restriction snugly, among them SEANS SILVERDANCER, who ships in taking a steep class drop after breaking alertly in both recent dirt sprints; tactical options from outside. FULL OF INTENT makes seasonal debut after winning four of eight starts for Bruce Levine last year, including two lucrative New York-bred allowance races and a $25K off-the-turfer at Saratoga; versatile running style. WORLD PREMIER was reclaimed from lone start at Belmont's spring-summer meet, likely with an eye toward the Spa, where she won back-to-back starts last year. ALIRAVEN won twice right before the cutoff; back with Gary Contessa after dull return at Monmouth. Closer Looks >>
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4 Switched to turf after a two-month break, MONGOL BOSS took part in a three-way pace battle and just failed to last, while his two early tormentors were deep-fried and wound up last and next-to-last; outside draw affords options depending on how potential early rivals break. PACIFIC THEATER has run three times and been a beaten favorite in three states at three distances on turf and synthetic; like most of these, he has never been shorter than six furlongs previously. KINGSTON BAY picked up the tempo in recent works; sky-high 410 Tomlinson grass rating with strong turf influences on both sides of pedigree. Closer Looks >>
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5 CANDY KITTY is out of Worthy Cat, who is a half-sister to Naissance Royale, a four-time graded stakes winner on turf including the Lake Placid at Saratoga; bet to 4-5 in sprint bow on dirt. HILLHOUSE HIGH sold for better than six times sire Exchange Rate's stud fee in March; half-sis to two multiple winners worked twice on grass earlier this month. KITTEN KABOODLE is a Kitten's Joy homebred who is top-rated on the Tomlinson numbers for turf; one of four in the field listed to get Lasix, along with the top two and $510K filly PAULOWNIA. Closer Looks >>
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6 If switched to dirt, STONELY THE LONELY would be trying open company and shortening up in distance after setting the pace vs. multiple stakes winner Groomedforvictory, who goes in the Evan Shipman later today. Otherwise, RIP ROARIN RITCHIE is back with Wesley Ward after steadying repeatedly through stretch run of June 16 return at Arlington on good turf; course conditions could be key, as he is 3 for 4 on firm ground. SOUTHERN TIER cuts back and takes blinkers off, after grabbing the lead at the six-furlong mark at Belmont; should be tighter second time out this year. Closer Looks >>
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7 FOGGY ROAD is approached with trepidation first out since being eased two months ago going long; he gets class relief dropping from special-weights, however, and ran his best race sprinting off workouts against the likes of stakes-bound Bad Hombre. MR. WILLIAM drops off a claim more than two months ago by David Jacobson, who wins regularly with this sort of class move, and who is also a 30% winner when switching from turf to dirt in 2012-13; two half-siblings won on wet dirt. STOP SIGN was clear at the pace call in both starts downstate but couldn't seal the deal; main early challenge may come from his uncoupled stablemate FAIRY SNOW. Closer Looks >>
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8 With a 3-1-1 slate from five starts at today's distance that includes a big win in the Pebbles last fall, PEACE PRESERVER is the most accomplished miler in the field, and it's probably wise to draw a line through her sloppy off-the-turf race last out; solid late run in slow-paced Beaugay two back. OPEN WATER has run in graded stakes all 10 prior starts for Eric Guillot, including Grade 2 win on synthetic with a lifetime Beyer top May 18 return; exhibits a potential "bounce-rebound" figure pattern, and appears to be sitting on ready after a sharp local grass drill. DEANAALLEN'SKITTEN has not lost by more than one length in any start over the past 3 1/2 years, and hasn't been out of the exacta since a narrow defeat in Oct. 2010; faster than ever at age 6. Closer Looks >>
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9 Perfect from four starts around two turns against progressively tougher fields, AWESOME VISION has been freshened since two tries out of the chute at Belmont; the deep closer will get a favorably fast pace courtesy of READTHEBYLINE. The latter was a maiden sprint winner at the Spa last summer, but has blossomed as a run-and-gun router; set blazing splits and ran right through an anti-speed bias wiring open company June 22. GROOMEDFORVICTORY was third (beaten a neck) in the 2010 Evan Shipman, but has primarily been a miler type through highly productive 36-race career; 8-year-old flashed his old form when claimed from last. BIGGER IS BETTOR, the 26-1 winner of the 2011 Albany this track & distance, has shown improved tactical speed this year. Closer Looks >>
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10 Exactly one year ago today, SHEERFLAKESOFGOLD returned from a layoff and ran the fastest race of her life on Saratoga turf, and followed with several more respectable performances, the last two on grass coming against repeat winners; assumed ready to come back running again. STARSHIP GAMBLER has had the lead at the pace call each of three starts for her current connections but hasn't been able to hold on; likely to get some pressure up front from SILKY SAINT, the only dual winner in the group. TULITA took a while to get through maiden ranks, but has money chances after finally getting the job done at even money three weeks ago; ran MELODY LIN and SILKY SAINT to close decisions downstate. Closer Looks >>
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