08/07/2013 11:52AM

Saratoga: Dave Litfin's Analysis August 8, 2013

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Dave Litfin’s Analysis [BEST BET: Palace Dreams (9th race)]

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1 KISSER N RUN has won or placed in four of five steeplechase events, and seems to have improved since adding Lasix for two starts this year; nipped late in longer stake last time. WELL FASHIONED has beaten many of these (including the top one twice); third in this race last year off a similar layoff. OPERA HEROINE won the 2011 running of the Mrs. Phipps, as well as an Open House maiden special a few weeks prior; 9-year-old mare returned from long absence in a flat race at Colonial and had some stretch trouble. Closer Looks >>
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2 CON GEE moves toward the outside for first try in New York, after pressing/setting the early pace twice at Delaware Park, getting close to the Beyer par (63) most recently; bullet work last week. ALWAYSINSTILETTOS is a half-sister to five winners including 14-time winner Diamond District; July 13 gate work matches up with stablemate Fox Rox, second as the favorite when unveiled here July 21. MISS NARCISSIST sold for nearly 10 times Freud's stud fee in May; picked up the pace in last Thursday's breeze. CHRYSOLITE is a full sister to $427K earner Freud's Notebook; dam has produced several other sprint winners, too. Closer Looks >>
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3 COLONY STRIKE has won at four tracks in his last five outings, notably a 14-1 upset here last August, and edged forward to a new Beyer top in second start of the year; versatile pace abilities. WINDSWEPT also steps up from a first-level allowance win, and his was at the expense of Positively, who was graded-stakes placed twice last year; on dirt, the lightly raced 5-year-old has been in the money all starts except for a fourth in the 2011 Indiana Derby. POINT TAKEN will look around and be relieved that 22-time winner Caixa Eletronica is nowhere to be found; consistent gelding is capable of 90+ figures on fast or wet footing. Closer Looks >>
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4
HOLIDAY'S JEWEL improved to 2-1-0 from three starts on Saratoga's inner turf when claimed from much-the-best score, and her new trainer has been having a fine meet; remains a contender in the event of a switch to dirt at 1 1/8 miles. STICK TO YOUR GUNS won two of four when switched to grass in the spring, graduating over INDIAN STARLIGHT, and outfinishing next-out winner SABOULI in a restricted claimer; tough trip in stake and beaten less than four lengths when returned from a freshening on this course. BUSTLE took her first backward step in terms of grass Beyers last out, when perhaps closer to the early pace than preferred; something resembling penultimate effort would put her in the mix at a square price.
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5 If switched to dirt at seven furlongs, THUG DADDY took money in debut, rallied wide and made up considerable ground after being mugged at the break. Otherwise, BLUEGRASS FLASH is unveiled by Christophe Clement, who has already won with debuting turf routers Sea Queen ($10.80) and Viva Allegiance ($14.60) at the meet; half-sis Discreet Marq recently won the Grade 2 Sands Point and an overnight stake for these connections. MARVIN'S MIRACLE was a good second sprinting first out; loses the leading rider to JUSTICE DEPT, who was fourth to stablemates Here's Johnny and No Nay Never (Group 2 winner at Royal Ascot) in first two tries. Closer Looks >>
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6 If switched to dirt at seven furlongs, TWO T'S AT TWO B would be third back from a layoff, and dropping out of an against-the-bias fourth in the Grade 3 Jersey Shore. At a mile on turf, MORE HUNDRED ACRE was five wide on the far turn, losing more ground than the length he was beaten by at Monmouth; figures are improving each time. PRADO CAT broke slow from the outside each of last two starts, the latest a Grade 2 stake and the preceding allowance containing Jack Milton, now a Grade 3 winner and close third in G2 Virginia Derby; like More Hundred Acre, he can be a bit trouble prone. Closer Looks >>
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7 SCORE BOYERA has a similar look to Pure Attitude ($11.80), another 7-year-old who won Monday's opener off a layoff & turnback for David Jacobson; didn't get much pace to run at when tried at 6 1/2 furlongs vs. tougher three back. VICTORY ISLAND is third off the bench, turf to dirt, and has never raced this cheaply; logical threat won comeback with Rajiv Maragh first out for Bruce Levine, and breezed nicely last week. CINEMATIZE returns to the scene of Travers Day maiden win and also drops from second-level statebred optional ranks; idle since early spring, but work tab for high-percentage trainer looks okay. Closer Looks >>
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8 DISCREET FORCE outran expectations twice downstate, withstanding long stretch battle to win debut at 6-1, and returning four months later to take N1X allowance condition despite bumping in upper stretch; should get favorable pace setup with speedy GOLDEN GALAXY expected to vie for command with DIVADORA and/or NEWBIE. Although the inside post hasn't been ideal in sprints here this summer, KEEP BUSTIN has four off-the-pace wins, three of them from close range, so she may be able to work out an inside stalking trip with Johnny V; she faced 3-for-3 Lovely Syn (retired) both 6 1/2-furlong starts. GALIANA closed from the back of the pack to light up the board opening weekend; Delaware Invader now 2 for 2 on dirt at 10-1 & 69-1. Closer Looks >>
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9 PALACE DREAMS handled a big field of maidens decisively second time out, and then beat 11 more opponents by open lengths on this course with something left; need only maintain current form, and she's perfectly eligible to improve again. FROSTY BAY has won two of three since adding blinkers, beating several of these short and long at 19-1 & 8-1; lower odds today. With 80+ figures to her credit on fast and wet tracks, KELLI GOT FROSTY becomes the one to beat in the event of a switch to dirt at seven furlongs. Closer Looks >>
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10 If the nightcap lands on dirt, BOZIQUE is in the midst of a productive campaign, and the main question would be whether she handles 1 1/8 miles going two turns. Otherwise, BELLE OF THE WEST will be stretching out to 1 1/16 miles after a top-figure placing, and went evenly at this trip first time on grass in April; encouraging workout Sunday. BONATINI drops for the third start of her form cycle after an even try behind Palace Dreams (see 9th); boasts some competitive figures. ALWAYSINMYCIRCLE is the lone Spa grass winner; pace player with SILKY SAINT, SCEALEILE and YAMPA RIVER. Closer Looks >>
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