08/02/2013 9:38AM

Saratoga: Dave Litfin's Analysis August 3, 2013

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Dave Litfin’s Analysis [BEST BET: Tiz for Tat (2nd race)]

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1 GOOGLEADO makes second start back from a layoff after leading at the pace call for the third straight time at this level (two of those attempts also from the rail); horse that ran him down two back ran second in last week's Quick Call Stakes. SLAN ABHAILE has been on turf and mud last pair; runner-up to Prairie Meadows stakes repeater Our Double Play when last on a fast track. RINCON BEHR improved sharply to graduate in the slop second out; trio of bullet workouts since then. Closer Looks >>
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2 TIZ FOR TAT was a close second as a 2-year-old to Mico Margarita, the Grade 3 Carry Back winner who was beaten less than a length in last week's Grade 2 Amsterdam; promising comeback at Belmont when clearly best of rest behind speedy Mentor Cane. MR. O'LEARY narrowly missed the place in debut vs. allowance repeater Eastwood; second finisher won earlier at this meet. ARRIVING is a half-brother to six winners, two that earned $152K & $118K; profitable debut barn off to good start at the meet. Closer Looks >>
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3 NODEBTDANNY hasn't run in almost two months since chasing a couple next-out winners in her seasonal bow, which may be a plus considering best race came on this track off workouts; entrymate DIAMOND MAKER a beaten favorite in three of last five on turf and dirt. CEBU gets blinkers after beginning current form cycle with a pair of turf races; stretch threat off her Oaklawn form. HIGH INFLATION is also turf to dirt; beat 10 rivals out of the chute at Belmont three back. Closer Looks >>
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4 If switched to the main track at 1 1/8 miles, IRISH LION has been shopping for a spot lately, and faced tougher through busy winter campaign. Otherwise, FORMULAFORSUCCESS has been sparingly raced since big win first off the claim in Nov. 2011; rallying third off a lengthy layoff at Belmont behind Presumptive, who was entered back Friday. QUANTITY drops to new low making first start as a 5-year-old for top layoff barn; deep closer needs some pace up front from PERFECT JOISKI, LOUIE MONDELLO and/or DUAL CITIZEN. Closer Looks >>
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5 CHRISSY GIRL was bumped and off slow, swung out into the lane and closed steadily to overhaul EDDY'S TIME and RAVEN RISE in a career-best effort July 7; call in wide open maiden route. Raven Rise lost ground racing wide last time, and now moves to the rail for third start back from a layoff; handles dirt, should this race wind up on main track at 1 1/8 miles. DONE SMOKING lagged toward rear and passed four rivals the last furlong when unveiled in a sprint; half-sister Fortunate Damsel won the Pebbles Stakes, suggesting today's distance is within her scope. Closer Looks >>
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6 GIMME CREDIT notched lone victory and best figure of 2012 on Saratoga turf; out of his element at seven furlongs on yielding ground when claimed June 8, subsequently rebounded nicely behind a runaway winner. TYCOON CAT was 1 for 41 after nose loss Apr. 19, but has won two of eight since then, and evidently thinks he's a racehorse; late bloomer is right back after beating 11 over this course. ARCHER HILL returns to the Spa, where he defeated multiple stakes winner Notacatbutallama in debut; blinkers on after even try off a freshening. Closer Looks >>
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7 DUNKIN BEND won a pace battle but lost the war when run down by stablemate Candy Dandy first out; experience edge on most of these. CHISHOLM sold for better than 11 times stud fee of Congrats after working a furlong in 10.20 seconds at OBS March sale; must consider if drawn in. BIRD NOW is a half-brother to stablemate Pow Wow Wow, a second-out maiden winner at Delaware as a 2YO last fall, and Grade 2-placed at Gulfstream over the winter; connections sent out Birdstone to 12-length debut win on Whitney Day 2003. Closer Looks >>
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8 TETRADRACHM has won from off the pace on firm turf, beat SET THE SAIL after dueling for the lead, and was even versatile enough to run second to Fourstardave-bound Lea in a sloppy off-the-turfer most recently; purchased after that race by sharp outfit and turned over to Bill Mott. ADMIRAL PERRY comes off paired 88 Beyers not far off his peak number, and they are his best grass figures; finished with good energy to decision JOES BLAZING AARON first time on non-firm turf since N1X allowance win at Tampa Bay in 2011. SET THE SAIL just missed at 13-1 here last summer when brought back from a similar layoff; has won two of three with Shaun Bridgmohan along with a close second to the choice. Closer Looks >>
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9 LAUGH OUT LOUD faltered after racing in range to the stretch in the Just A Game, and the addition of Lasix today by new trainer suggests legit excuse; Group 2 winner overseas may outclass these. RUTHENIA has won or placed 50% of the time, but ran one of her best races last out when a close third to Laughing, who wired last week's Grade 1 Diana; must-use in exotics. BAFFLE ME has put up 90+ figures twice in last three starts, the latest when run down by Grade 1 winner Samitar; part of a potentially solid pace with ASSATEAGUE. Closer Looks >>
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10 FORT LARNED is tough to trust after off-again, on-again first half of the year, but Stephen Foster romp was a confidence builder, and he has since trained well since arriving back at the Spa; comfortable outside stalking trip winning 2012 Whitney, but getting early position in title defense could be trickier drawn inside CROSS TRAFFIC. The latter hasn't been out since brutal beat in Met Mile, but recent Whitney winners Tizway (2011) and Commentator (2008) hadn't run since the Met, either; spots seasoning at two turns and 1 1/8 miles, but could be any kind. RON THE GREEK narrowed the gap late in last year's Whitney placing; likeliest off-the-pace winner if top two draw knives at each other from the get-go. Closer Looks >>
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11 If this allowance dash lands on the main track, L B'S EXPRESSION would likely be the one to catch based on four front-running performances as a 2YO that included wins at Delaware and Laurel; bullet work (1/99) over the track recently. Dirt or turf, WILD GRACE will contend, as she has identical Beyer tops both surfaces; advanced through maiden ranks nicely first out in six months. MY UPTOWN GAL improved when switched to grass in the spring, was brought back from a freshening opening week and made further progress to miss by a nose at boxcar odds; entrymate MARY P. JONES also has money chances turf or wet dirt. Closer Looks >>
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12 If the nightcap winds up on the main track, WON'TUALWAYSWONDER would be dropping another notch after finishing third at 1-2 in off-the-turf route at Churchill; might offer a better late kick at seven furlongs. On turf at a mile, ST. SINCERE makes first start in nearly a year, after being purchased and turned over to white-hot George Weaver, who is 6 for 16 ($5.84 R.O.I.) with new acquisitions in 2012-13; susceptible to slow starts on the SoCal circuit. SHORTCOMING rallied wide and missed second in a photo to 6-year-old erstwhile jumper RYVIT opening weekend; neither would be a surprise in this spot. Closer Looks >>
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