08/27/2013 9:28AM

Saratoga: Dave Litfin's Analysis August 28, 2013

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Dave Litfin's Analysis [BEST BET: Rosie's Song (3rd race)]

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1 COMMISSIONER trailed early, rallied for second behind a 4-5 winner when shipped down to Monmouth for recent unveiling; half-brother to three route winners should get some pace up front with FLYING JOE and TALL BOY breaking from the two inside posts.BOLD VISIONARY was off toward the rear and was along to beat SOUPER LUCKY for second by two lengths in Aug. 3 bow on speed-friendly track; both stretch way out from six furlongs. Closer Looks >>
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2 MISS DA POINT recorded the second-fastest figure in the race to win at 20-1 when last entered in a "beaten" claimer at Belmont; the pace scenario should be to her liking. TALENT N PASSION ran right through an anti-speed bias to wire cheaper when claimed Aug. 9; under the gun from the rail with early rival DIXIE SPARKLE right alongside. REVEALING MOMENT has faced repeaters all three starts since debut maiden win, notably three-time Grade 1 winner Princess of Sylmar; posted a new top figure first out at 3. Closer Looks >>
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3 ROSIE'S SONG has run her opening half-mile in the neighborhood of 46 seconds all four starts on fast, good & muddy tracks, including three consecutive in-the-money finishes with blinkers on; no one else has run a half that fast, and the special-weight dropdown projects to be in command turning for home. GLASSY ALY finished willingly against the grain of a speed-favoring strip when stretched out to this distance Aug. 3; moves from the rail to the outside for third start of the year. PRIZE TAKER is one of three in the lineup to have reached 60 on Beyers, and did so at this distance the last time she caught a fast track. Closer Looks >>
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4 Her hand forced after lurking on the main-track-only list all summer, SKYFALL returns to dirt for Todd Pletcher, who has 13 stakes wins heading into the final week; idle since meeting Street Gem (5 for 8 this year) June 23, but has run well three times off workouts.FLASH FORWARD has a nice figure development line after edging forward slightly in two recent restricted stakes; improved workout Aug. 15. SISTER STATE became the field's only 1 1/8-mile winner when dropped from the Mother Goose for N1X allowance score second-time Lasix; hot barn went on a 6-for-7 tear last week. Closer Looks >>
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5 If switched to dirt at seven furlongs, GROUPTHINK was pounded to odds-on for debut, was bumped early and often while wide and finished a clear second, beating a next-out graduate. On turf at 1 1/16 miles, BLUEGRASS FLASH was solidly backed for first try, broke slow, swept five wide to the lead and settled for second vs. more experienced rival Aug. 8; obvious. REWRITE HISTORYis by high-percentage debut sire Big Brown (who won 2YO debut in a Spa turf route); barn has sent out two winning first-time starters recently. BLUE PIGEON top-ranked on Tomlinson numbers for grass; trainer has four turf debut winners at the meet. Closer Looks >>
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6 LEEK sports a July 31 gate work that matches up with stablemate Artemis Agrotera ($2.90), a 2YO debut winner by nearly a dozen lengths for same owner-breeder Aug. 16; entrymate LONGRIDE TO WISDOM (also eligible) is the first runner ouf of a multiple stakes-winning dam. CRYPTIC COMET went evenly while racing a bit greenly for a respectable third-place finish first time out; she figures close with CANAL SIX, who was with the grain of a closer-favoring track when she rallied for second in July 31 bow. Closer Looks >>
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7 If switched to dirt at seven furlongs, MY SPARKY won her first three dirt starts in blinkers before settling for the runner-up spot most recently; won an off-the-turfer big here 2012. No matter the surface, HOLIDAY'S JEWEL is a logical threat, but particularly so on the inner course, where she has won or placed all three starts including her two best figures; prefers firm turf. CARIBEAN BEATcomes up to this nicely after matching her best 2012 figures in June 29 comeback, followed by 10-point move to a new top; both of the New York-bred's wins have come against open company. Closer Looks >>
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8 If the P.G. Johnson moves to the main track at seven furlongs, TRUE BLUE NATION handled CANDY KITTY to light the toteboard at nearly 18-1 first out, then couldn't keep pace through blazing early fractions in the Schuylerville; the pace here would be markedly slower. On turf, it's a close call among the four fillies that come off 1 1/1/6-mile maiden races, but GRANNY MC'S KITTEN may be up to the task despite being a maiden, which is really just semantics in view of tough-trip nose loss to MISS FROST first out. LA REINE BOURBON was being geared down final stages of debut win; sharp work last week. CANDY KITTY got away with murder on the lead most recently. Closer Looks >>
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9 If switched to dirt at seven furlongs, ZIVO was bumped at the break, wide early and made his way to the rail for a good finish behind loose-on-the-lead Bug Juice first out in almost a year; equally capable fast or wet. On turf at a mile, ALARMED NDANGEROUS was beaten less than a length by favored SNEAKY KITTEN in their Aug. 5 clash, and might easily make up the difference considering that was his first start in 49 weeks and it was a less-than-perfect trip; won photos back to back on this course 2012. GIMME CREDITowns 40% of the field's grass victories; 10-year-old gelding has been claimed four times from last five starts, the latest a determined finish to win on Spa turf for the fourth time. Closer Looks >>
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10 PRESENT COURSE lacked room in the stretch when favored for local debut in return from a layoff, was claimed by meet-leading owner and now drops 50% in price while picking up the leading rider; if switched to the main track (at 1 1/8 miles), this would be his first dirt start with Lasix. LASSO has virtually identical Beyer tops turf & dirt, so he is also a dual-surface threat first off the claim by David Jacobson; 5 1/2 furlongs a bit short for him last out. MR. WILLIAM was reclaimed from July 22 return, in which he broke through the gate prior to the start of a dirt sprint; either of two grass races can land him somewhere on the board. Closer Looks >>
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