08/25/2013 1:08PM

Saratoga: Dave Litfin's Analysis August 26, 2013

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Dave Litfin's Analysis [BEST BET: Sneaky Blowout (6th race)]

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1 TRIPSKI has come back from a late-spring freshening to run his two fastest turf sprints this summer, the latest on this course vs. hard-knocking Hogy in the Troy Stakes; easier spot. JOES BLAZING AARON was good enough to take clear lead in stretch of a Grade 3 stake earlier this year; cuts back to a sprint after setting the pace in two grass routes to begin current form cycle. AWAKINO CAT toyed with cheaper when claimed 10 days ago; four-time stakes winner on Spa turf has ample back class to contend. Closer Looks >>
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2 U. S. S. O'BRIEN is a half-sister to three 2-year-old winners, and appears ready to roll after two five-furlong works on the main track, the latest from the gate; bred to move up over off going. DOMINO DERVAL is by a Hopeful winner, and the first runner out of unplaced dam; barn has sent out 36 juvenile winners past two years at the Spa. FINGERS CROSSED is unveiled by red-hot connections that vaulted to third in the standings with a 6-for-7 run Wed-Fri that included 2YO debut winners at 22-1 & 8-1; first runner out of sprint-winning dam. Closer Looks >>
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3 OL DONYO returned from a short layoff to win handily with blinkers on at Parx; easier assignment after running in a stake at Monmouth vs. Ju Ju Eyeballs, who was winning her fifth in a row. ELUSIVE ACT has the benefit of a race over the track, and it was a sharp effort to smash cheaper with a new top figure; improved filly has won three of last four on dirt. GNARLEY GIRL is another who responded to blinkers with a big maiden win at Parx; wide off a layoff on turf after that, now switches back to dirt after a fast work over the track. Closer Looks >>
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4 MADAME GIRY was in the best form of her career when she won this race last summer, and may be set for a forward move third time back from a layoff; met males in return at Calder, gets off the rail after chasing fast pace in the Caress. SWEET AND LOVELY was stakes placed on Spa turf going long last year; she is also third time back after a solid finish fell short by a neck to MY JOPIA. The Maryland-based LION DOWN BY ME comes off three identical Beyer tops in succession; narrowly missed third to the top one most recently. Closer Looks >>
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5 BEDOUIN NOW is a tough read after posting her two fastest figures in the slop and on turf, followed by the worst race of his life when claimed early at the meet; Castellano getting back on the field's lone dual winner is taken as a reassuring sign. SO OUTSPOKEN got the jump on deep-closing choice Tiu and prevailed for maiden win over the course; back just nine days later in a realistic spot. SIR LESLIE can be a late factor based on his determined run to beat New York-bred maidens two back; never been in this cheap. Closer Looks >>
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6 The only experienced runner going first time for a tag is SNEAKY BLOWOUT, who puts blinkers on for second start back from a layoff and cuts back to the distance of best effort as a first-time starter; chased Dwyer repeater Moreno in last one-turn try. TEAM LAZARUS has started off with a Beyer pair-up going short and long; perhaps seven furlongs is just right? DEADICATED DEAL awaited room approaching the stretch and finished evenly in the mud when dropped to this level Aug. 1; gets some weight off. Closer Looks >>
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7 QUANTITY was dropped in for $20,000 first out this year, and may prove a prescient claim after essentially matching his best figures to win under confident handling; leading rider stays put, forsaking COMPLIANCE OFFICER. The latter was a $25,000 claim in 2011, and went on to win all four "majors" on the NYB turf schedule along with a Claiming Crown score and Grade 3 placing; 7-year-old merits close scrutiny first out in nearly a year. With the exception of the Grade 1 Manhattan over yielding turf at 1 1/4 miles, PLAINVIEW has been uncatchable this year, running his rivals off their feet to garner two allowance conditions; may get some pressure from GLASS ART, a shipper who drew the rail after a third at Monmouth to Saintly Love, who is currently on a six-race win streak. Closer Looks >>
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8 Blinkers did the trick for DRUM ROLL, who beat his rivals into submission when stretched out to today's distance 19 days ago; right back under the same conditions with a favorable post draw. BELIEF SYSTEM was a rare claim by George Weaver early at the meet, when he prompted the pace and was right there to midstretch of 1 1/8-mile route vs. richer; consistent figures on dirt this year. POLIZIANO and FLY BYE POMEROY have money chances based on their races in June, but each of their follow-up efforts in July left something to be desired. Closer Looks >>
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9 GO UNBRIDLED has run three routes at Saratoga, two of them photo-finish beats including the 2011 Saratoga Dew, and a romping win in last year's edition; she's a two-turn horse, plain and simple, and eliminated herself June 23 when she bolted near Belmont's tricky one-mile gap where the chute joins the main track. TAHOE TIGRESS swept three races at Belmont against progressively tougher opponents, putting up steadily rising figures (she also won debut there at 56-1); suffered only loss from six races on fast tracks right here. LADY ON THE RUN has banked $365K as a late-running sprinter-miler; gives weight to all trying 1 1/8 miles for the first time. Closer Looks >>
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10 After an excusable debut from post 12, SAPPHIRE BLUE finished with too little, too late in two tries as the 17-10 favorite; she is lowered several rungs down the ladder and may be able to overtake this kind. CORALITA comes off a good try for second under these conditions last month; flattered when third finisher came back to win big for $35K. EAST COAST EXPRESS is second back from a short layoff, and in with maiden claimers for the first time; Pat Quick's turf horses have been outrunning their odds recently. Closer Looks >>
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