08/24/2013 12:00PM

Saratoga: Dave Litfin's Analysis August 25, 2013

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Dave Litfin's Analysis [BEST BET: What the Frost (7th race)]

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1 CALLANA couldn't get the job done in two pace-setting attempts as the favorite on good turf; however, she would be difficult to deny under rating tactics on firm turf based on good-figure debut May 5. QUAY stretches out after a pair of sprint placings on dirt and turf; $250K filly bred to get the trip. TREASURED and PERFECT PACKAGE both shorten up from 1 1/8 miles after leading in midstretch; the former seems more likely to improve second time on turf and second back from a layoff. Closer Looks >>
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2 GRACER chased throughout and was clearly second best when bet to favoritism for debut at Parx; first work back was another bullet on this track. POTOSI'S SILVER is a half-sister to four winners; three straight gate works for barn that picked up 13th juvenile winner of the meet Friday. MEI LING a $500K yearling buy unveiled by dangerous first-out trainer who sent out a runaway newcomer last week; picked up the pace in last Sunday's drill. Closer Looks >>
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3 KNOCKHER OFF showed some ability in three starts late last year, including a third to Wednesday's Albany winner Escapefromreality; sharp recent gate work for return, tries turf. ACIGARISJUSTACIGAR moves outside after breaking from posts #1 & 2 in two starts over the course; involved early. IRISH ETIQUETTE pressed the pace, gained slim lead in the stretch and faded late as if "short" in return from extended absence; may improve. Closer Looks >>
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4 ST LIAMS HALO met some tough customers in his first four dirt starts in New York, and has been freshened since claimed from turf sprint May 16; ran well off similar layoff Jan. 4, back class. BUCKEYE HEART a deep closer with consistent figures on dirt; would benefit if SHANKOPOTAMUS and RADIOHEAD duke it out early. Radiohead makes first dirt start for David Jacobson, after wide run to narrowly miss in a turf dash; only dirt sprint since 2011 was in the slop. Closer Looks >>
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5 Not thrilled with the 1-hole for NONNIE CONNIE at seven furlongs, but she rates a class call offered for sale for the first time by live outfit; double turf to dirt, met repeater Tahoe Tigress three back. LISALISALEE switches back to preferred surface (4 for 13 dirt) after wide trip from post 10 in N.Y. Stallion first off the claim; has won at six furlongs and a mile, so seven-eighths seemingly suits. SEVEN DREAMS would be hard to handle with anything resembling her win at today's distance, but that was three months and three trainers ago. Closer Looks >>
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6 IMAGINING got some R&R at Fair Hill along with several of his stablemates, and may go well in return judging from impressive victories to begin 2012 & 2013; wide throughout Dixie, has way more tactical speed than shown that day. ATIGUN has had two months off since steadied and blocked in stretch as the favorite in Colonial Turf Cup; took to grass nicely two prior starts at Churchill Downs. STAR CHANNEL finds more suitable spot after trying the John's Call and Sword Dancer around three turns; recent claim figures close with HOBBS off their Tampa Bay meeting. Closer Looks >>
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7 WHAT THE FROST's maiden win at today's distance (first time off a barn change) earned her a new top Beyer; she was entered back on short rest just 16 days later to finish sixth of 12, and four of five fillies that finished in front of her came back to win. ZEKES SURPRISE has turned in three races of identical quality numbers-wise this year on turf & dirt; stakes placed on this track as a 2-year-old. GEE LINZ away since Apr. 10 when reclaimed by connections who sent her out for debut win in Saratoga mud; picks up leading rider. Closer Looks >>
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8 GONDOLE has been readied by Christophe Clement, who has four turf debut winners at the meet (all at 4-1 or better), along with two that finished second; dam has produced four winners. DOMINO DERVAL has kept similar training schedule as uncoupled stablemate ROCK ME MAMA; either or both could factor at first asking for top 2YO barn. CROWN QUEEN a $1.6 million half-sister to today's Personal Ensign favorite Royal Delta; follow. Closer Looks >>
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9 SACHEM SPIRIT rallied six wide into the lane with a strong finish in July 27 return; should be primed for best stretching out to distance of initial allowance win. FILM SHOT chased Plainview from the get-go and saved the place over Sachem Spirit most recently; like the top pick, he seeks first victory since spring of 2012. SHARE OUT has delivered his two fastest races on Spa turf while using different pace tactics; shortens up a bit after leading favored Tricky Hat to deep stretch at 1 3/16 miles. Closer Looks >>
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10 Dual BC winner ROYAL DELTA turned in a clunker in defense of Fleur de Lis title, but looked like her old self winning this year's Delaware 'Cap way more easily than last year; a bit hard to gauge at this point of career, and vulnerable if she runs same type of Personal Ensign as 2012. AUTHENTICITY was freshened after paired 100+ figures in May, and returned to win Shuvee by a measured length; late bloomer gets six pounds from the choice. ON FIRE BABY slugged it out from gate to wire with Authenticity in La Troienne; graded stakes winner at 2, 3 & 4 has won repeatedly off workouts, notably the Apple Blossom at expense of subsequent Ogden Phipps winner Tiz Miz Sue. Closer Looks >>
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11 After a handy debut score from mid-pack on synthetic, ENCHANTING LISA got a "watchdog" trip chasing breakaway speed Miss Lamour first time vs. winners and first on turf; half-sister to Wise Dan should love a flat mile. KITTEN'S QUEEN has run on four different grass courses since early spring and put up similar figures all over the map; stakes dropper will be part of early pace with CAN'T EXPLAIN, JUSTONEATHEGUYS and/or DADDY LOVES GOLD. Contested fractions would help ABBEY STREET, who returns for new barn after ambitious try in the Regret vs. recent Lake George winner Kitten's Dumplings. Closer Looks >>
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