08/18/2013 11:34AM

Saratoga: Dave Litfin's Analysis August 19, 2013

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Dave Litfin's Analysis [BEST BET: Flores Island (2nd race)]

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1 THUG DADDY was squeezed back at the start, rallied wide in the lane and finished well in debut; he gets an extra furlong to work with today. SO LONESOME is a half-brother to three winners of over $100K; Laurel shipper looks live for dangerous first-out barn. BLUE COLLAR CAT showed more positional speed despite being forced in at the start most recently; been on the rail last two, moves outside. Closer Looks >>
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2 FLORES ISLAND caught a fast dirt track for the first time three weeks ago, and responded with her fastest race so far, finishing willingly into a fast final three-eighths in 36.05 seconds; homebred filly breezed a bullet half ranked 1/128 for this. LUNAR SURGE was no match for the top pick but was well clear of the rest July 29 - a 23-point Beyer improvement from her debut; may go forward again, as that was also her first outing in two months. SHEER DRAMA stretches out after racing close-up at the pace call twice; half-sister to $2.7 million earner Big Drama may be looking for the early lead. Closer Looks >>
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3 HOT STONES just missed at 7-5 first time out at Belmont, and then took no prisoners in a decisive maiden graduation here two months later; continues to train well for step up to next logical spot. MAKE THE MOMENT was last of 12 early and put in a sustained run to finish third behind a pair of next-out winners first time over the track (Galiana, now 3 for 3 on dirt, is entered back in today's Union Avenue); stretch threat. ABSOLUTE BEAUTY repeats the combination of a turf-to-dirt switch and a cutback in distance that produced maiden win as a second-time starter; likely to go well. Closer Looks >>
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4 INSOLVENT shipped to Saratoga to win as a second-time starter last year with Javier Castellano, and reprises that pattern making second start as a 3-year-old following even try at Monmouth; Big Brown filly is bred both sides for turf, being a half-sister to Girlfrienontheside and Life's Candy, both dual winners on grass. WALTZING CAT went well in U.S. debut with first-time Lasix, but regressed soon afterward wearing new front bandages; drops for hot outfit. HOT TEMPO comes out of same race as Waltzing Cat, which marked third straight time she faced repeaters since maiden win; needs some pace up front. Closer Looks >>
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5 The first four finishers from the July 25 edition of the Lottsa Talc renew hostilities, and WILLET is taken to get up this time after running out of ground behind a slow pace; set for best third time out this year. CLEAR PASAJ was able to dictate leisurely fractions in the Lottsa Talc and dug in gamely to win second straight stakes photo; consistent filly has won or placed nine in a row. MISS VALENTINE handled a turnback to six furlongs to win different version of the Lottsa Talc back on Dec. 2; field's most accomplished member can never be counted out. Closer Looks >>
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6 LOGAN STREET has been a gem of consistency this year from a figure perspective, winning a maiden race at Gulfstream in her seasonal bow with a 74, and coming back with a run of 75-76-78, including a pair of in-the-money finishes behind repeat winners; gets ample pace to set things up. RICOCHET COURT returned from a 67-day break to just miss in three-way photo on the inner course July 29; should be in the picture early along with COACH A. J. and RUTHLESS ALLEY. A contested pace would help FLOWING MANE and SUMMER SANDS, who are back in four days after chasing Mr. Starr's Report's slow pace and being claimed Thursday. Closer Looks >>
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7 JOY SEEKER returned from a layoff, switched to turf and demolished large field of maidens on this course July 21, matching the Beyer par (77) for this allowance condition; must avoid a bounce, but there isn't much to run with her early this time either. INVADING HUMOR may be closer to the pace stretching out from a pair of turf sprints to begin current form cycle; bred for the trip. STRIKE ACCORD is also third time back, after late rally missed second by a neck and a head; had plenty of chances this level. Closer Looks >>
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8 When in doubt in long turf routes, lean to the best finisher. In this case, that appears to be NEOLEXIA based on any of her final fractions in four starts this year; will need some racing luck in a largely paceless field of evenly matched fillies. PLEASANT CAT and INDUSTRIAL POLICY were separated by less than a length when second and third in a shorter race July 24; either or both may improve second time back from a layoff. MAGICAL WORLD puts blinkers on for her second grass try; perhaps the early leader by default? Closer Looks >>
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9 A good performance by Neolexia in the 8th race would bolster the chances of PATH OF DREAMS, who changed tactics after several with-the-pace races and unleashed a big stretch run to win July 11 maiden route going away; call in absolutely up-for-grabs event. LADY OF GOLD makes third turf start after prolonged stretch battle vs. N2X allowance repeater Orion Moon, followed by respectable third in overnight stake; two good grass works for this. SHE'S NOT LAZY showed big improvement first time back from six-month layoff at Delaware Park while battling up front entire way; slow to settle in 2012 Spa debut sans Lasix. Closer Looks >>
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10 UMAN CANDY went evenly in a useful effort to begin career at Belmont; half-sister to Jonrah (dual turf allowance winner in N.Y. this year) is a candidate to improve. STOCK FUND tries for the 20th time, and she has been the beaten chalk in all four of her starts this year; often fills out exactas and trifectas. ROSALIE'S PLEASURE was close behind Stock Fund first out in nearly 11 months; logical threat second time in blinkers if able to draw in.. Closer Looks >>
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