Saratoga: Alpha has history on his side for Travers

So you want to toss Rags' Derby and put all sorts of value on the Belmont? The Belmont is dissimilar to every other major race and he had a dream rail path open up for him there. He was demolished in the Derby simply because he wasn't close to as good as IHA even on his best day. IHA was a vastly better racehorse than UR. He ground up in a painfully slow Belmont after the big horse went down but there is no evidence he was any better than the likes of Sarava or Jazil, in fact his was the 4th slowest Belmont in 40 years.

Listen, Union Rags was a quality horse no doubt. But the Paynter he beat that day will not be the Paynter we see the rest of the year. Think about this-Paynter had made one start, a 5.5 furlong maiden race, when April started. One race at the start of April! Then, just 2 months later he was asked to run 12 furlongs in a race like the Belmont. And face a real pro in Union Rags. The Belmont was an ambitious spot for Paynter. But he grew up in that race. I guess Union Rags fans can take some pride in the fact that the Belmont was the race and he was the horse to give Paynter that baptism by fire. But Paynter looks all set for much bigger things now. As for West Coast dominance among the 3 year olds, the evidence is overwhelming. Evidence, not opinion. 1-2 in the Kentucky Derby. 1-2-3 in the Preakness. 2nd in the Belmont without their top 2. And now in the biggest post-Triple Crown race thus far, 1-2. You can't argue scoreboard. And the division is not wide open as it concerns an Eclipse. I'll Have Another has that wrapped up. Paynter, because of Baffert's accelerated schedule, simply lost too many times earlier in the year. Even had Union Rags remained healthy, he was facing a similar scenario; people can explain away all they want, but the FACT is Union Rags was hitting 50% this year and lost head-to-head to IHA. Bode needed to run in and win the Haskell to have any shot of making up for his 0-2 record vs. IHA. Paynter is no cinch to win the Travers; no horse is ever a cinch. But he is clearly, clearly the horse to beat as long as he remains healthy. As for Liaison, I mention him because he had a terrible trip in the Jim Dandy. I don't know if he's better than Alpha, I just know Alpha had everything his way in that race and Liaison had little go right. Yet, Liaison finished a respectable 3rd. That's all. But if Paynter runs his race, Liaison has repeatedly shown that he can't beat the elite of the division. And I'm not gung ho on all West Coast racing. The older females in Cali are weak, as are the 3 year old fillies, and the female turf horses. The male marathon turf division has Acclamation and Bourbon Bay, but not much else. The handicap division is top heavy and shallow, although turf horses like Acclamtion and Suggestive Boy will make the Pacific Clssic an excellent race. Handicapping is not about cheering on a side to the point of bias. It's about using rational analysis to determine the best horses. In the 3 year old male division, it's really obvious that the Cali group was and is simply superior. If you haven't picked up on it yet, I would hate to think how much money you've lost betting the Triple Crown and Haskell.

Alpha doesn't need the lead. My point is that he was supposed to be in front off the layoff with no pace in the race. Who has Paynter beat? Union Rags jogged by him in The Belmont, and in The Haskell, who did he beat? Most of that field are synthetic or turf horses, and Gemologist isn't that good either. With a race over Saratoga's course Alpha has AN ADVANTAGE... THAT'S MY POINT. So please stop trying to distort my analysis. I said it's a 3 horse race.. Alpha, Paynter, Neck and Neck, with Gemologist also having the tightener.

WinStar doesn't fill races. They have races written for them.

We shall see, but don't think that 96 Beyer on a sloppy track with a lone f trip is going scare anyone. Well maybe it's enough to keep Hansen out.( like he was really going to the Travers anyway)

anytime you post a BSF of 108 these days you gotta be one helluva horse. paynter has now become the best of baffert's 4 3 year olds. bode is impressive, but one-dimensional, and only at a mile and an eighth. paynter is versatile and can run with you all day long, at a range of distances. baffert OWNS this year and has the best shot at the BCC with game on dude and paynter.

Um, no. Gemologist was ready to run, Pletcher was working him steadily and sharply, all the Gem fans were saying he looked like a million bucks. Pletcher does not run short horses in big races. Where have you been? Paynter is just a far better racehorse. Alpha won a plodfest jogging along in 50 seconds. Paynter ran a 108.