02/25/2014 2:45PM

Santa Anita: Rain could complicate Thursday's $198,609 pick six carryover

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Shigeki Kikkawa
Batti Man, 0 for 5 on turf, is expected to start in race 7 on Thursday if the race is moved from the turf course to the main track.

ARCADIA, Calif. – The pick six pool will be huge Thursday at Santa Anita – more than $1 million in new wagers is expected, chasing a $198,609 single-day carryover.

It requires skill, luck, and, on Thursday, cooperation from Mother Nature to hit the pick six (races 3-8). The sequence is complicated by a forecast for inclement weather.

The season’s first significant rainstorm was expected to arrive midweek, and while rain is welcome in drought-stricken California, it makes the pick six Thursday problematic. The sequence includes three races scheduled to be run on turf: races 3, 5, and 7.

Could rain force those races to the main track?

“It’s a matter of when it falls, and how much,” said Rick Hammerle, Santa Anita’s racing secretary. “If it rains Wednesday and is sunny Thursday, or if it’s only a quarter-inch, I would have no problem [staying on turf].

“The pick six is on the radar – it’s a big deal,” Hammerle added, recognizing the challenge facing pick six players. The turf rails are out at 24 feet, which protects the inner lanes. A decision regarding the surface will be made Thursday.

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Hammerle obviously prefers that races remain on turf, but the decision ultimately will be based on weather.

“If [the storm] is a quick in-and-out, that is the best,” he said. “You play it all by ear. The pick six is out there; it’s part of our culture. We’ll do what we can to protect it.”

A switch to the main track would trigger numerous scratches.

Below is a preview of the pick six.

Race 3 is a maiden race for California-bred 3-year-olds at a mile on grass. Six entered, including the third- and fourth-place finishers from a similar maiden race early this month – Zackos My Man and Arctic Code. Sudden Rumor and This Cat’s Awesome stretch out from sprints.

Race 4 is a $10,000 claiming race at a mile on dirt. Anabaa Premium, a runner-up twice against similar opposition, should get a comfortable trip positioned behind the speed and in front of closer Londinium. The sprinter Change of Plan is likely to set the pace while stretching out.

Race 5 is a $25,000 turf claiming race for fillies and mares at one mile. Love Tale and Lilly’s Perfect are the principals on grass. Born Lucky would prefer a switch to dirt.

Race 6 is a maiden special weight race for fillies and mares at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Thisonesforricky, an even-paced fourth in her comeback, makes her second start back for trainer Marty Jones, who has won eight races from his last 24 starters. Her main rival is Dreamy Blues, who finished third in the same race.

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Race 7 is a one-mile turf race at the seldom-used $75,000 claiming level. The pace scenario will change depending on the surface. Front-runner Batti Man is expected to start if the race is moved to dirt. On turf, class dropper El Commodore would be the controlling speed. Stoney Fleece, American Act, and shipper County Lineman also entered.

Race 8 is a $30,000 maiden-claiming sprint for 3-year-old fillies. Steep dropper Divine Way is likely to be favored in her first try on dirt and her first at the low level. New Nature, third with a wide trip in her comeback, faces less speed in her second start back.

Ian GW More than 1 year ago
Yawn. I look at the same boring entries and small chalk fields. Still waiting to play there again. Last good day was when Cal Chrome ran
michael More than 1 year ago
Scratches shud not be allowed due to weather changes. You enter, you run.
Billy Spathanas More than 1 year ago
Oh my goodness, rain in California, ,stop the presses , whatever will they do ? Be prepared Californians. Raincoats, umbrellas, and don't forget your horses run down patches.
Randy Baker More than 1 year ago
good thing the Breeders Cup is not held today
Bil Wil More than 1 year ago
Californians don't have raincoats. Rarely have umbrellas. It's California dude. Enjoy the telecast.
davopty More than 1 year ago
move turf races to race 123...
m More than 1 year ago
someone help me understand this....i know this happens often buy HOW do they get $1M to chase 200k? why wouldn't the pool just get that high on day 1? disparity in the chase amount...I don't get it. it's kind of like who bets on a 1-5 shot? i certainly wouldn't and don't know any real gamblers that would....so i ask WHO really bets on the 1-5 shot?
Jerseyjoe B More than 1 year ago
This is not a precise answer and it may be over-simplified, but it is difficult to explain in a blog: On a normal race day, if you bet $5 to win on an even money shot, and it wins, the payoff is $12. Those odds are determined by the amount of money bet by the public to win divided by the amount of money bet on the horse (after takeout). If there were a carryover in the win pool, the payoff on the same horse, might be, for argument sake, $15, because there is extra money to be paid out, which is just sitting there. The extra $3 has nothing to do with what is bet on that race today or what is bet on that horse today. It is "free" money. Now apply the same logic to the pick six pools and consider that the free money is in the hundreds of thousand (and occasionally millions) of dollars. That's why there is big money bet into the carryover pool. The winners will be getting payoffs which are out of proportion to the true odds. Referring to your first question, on day 1 of the carryover, they aren't chasing 200K. They are chasing 1.2M, with new capital of 1M.
Marty Brink More than 1 year ago
answer to the second part of your question "who bets on a 1-5 shot" Morons!
Bil Wil More than 1 year ago
Or people who are betting more than $2 at a time. aka 'Real Gamblers'. Moron. Different strategies is what makes the game fun/interesting.
Roger More than 1 year ago
Hey Brad you left out BIG BANKROLL......have you calculated the average cost of a winning P-6 ticket?
Walter More than 1 year ago
Big tickets lose too, and they cost more.
Hail No More than 1 year ago
Rain, really... I thought "handicapping" was the biggest complication for the pik 6 :)
rick smith More than 1 year ago
BETTING ON EAST COAST IN VICE GRIP Virginia track is closed down for betting until further notice. Colonial downs is shut down by state because the track wants same number of racing days as last year 25 and the state wants 32. Last known location state employee who closed track " was on vacation in japan and will be for a couple weeks" as of 2-4-2014 Inside sources say the track will open the day before Kentucky derby or was it the Preakness no it was the Belmont or is the day before the Virginia july racing meet takes place..........The drf staff are "MIA" on looking into the subject for over 3 weeks now. The state of New York there is no betting on santa anita and gulfstream and other tracks across the nation because of a signal dispute. The signal cost the same to transmit to space and back to earth.....They just want more money ................because that's the way they roll.
rahman Williams More than 1 year ago
Move to vegas
Randy Baker More than 1 year ago
Drf needs a column like craigslist that is for random rants.Fans like Rick are forced to use columns unrelated to their thoughts. I would bet it would be the most popular column on the site and great for up to date in inside info.
rick smith More than 1 year ago
Live in the area that is affected by this betting vice grip............what does "columns unrelated to their thoughts" even mean? This story is about santa anita and the pick 6 people on the east coast can not bet on this pick 6 so I posted. Go back to school and learn proper English and logic so you can put a sentence together and people can comprehend what you are writing. My post states "Inside info" to show how out of date drf has become on reporting of relevant information on this subject and others....... it has been weak at best. This is a betting site not craigslist their is no betting on the east coast and drf is not reporting it in a timely manner I was putting levity on a situation that is affecting thousands of people because of greed and ?. There is always 1......
Bil Wil More than 1 year ago
"proper English & logic"?? C'mon man. Shelve the emotions/feelings & use your brain. The Rant Page is a good idea..all the whiners can get together & blow smoke up one another.
rick smith More than 1 year ago
logic is not a emotion.......
Chris Jones More than 1 year ago
You stated: "Go back to school and learn proper English and logic so you can put a sentence together and people can comprehend what you are writing." Then you write in the following paragraph: "This is a betting site not craigslist their is no betting on the east coast and drf is not reporting it in a timely manner." THERE is the proper word for that sentence, not THEIR; THERE represents an unspecified place while THEIR is used to show possession. I will not even comment on your lack of punctuation... A couple hours later you respond to Bil Wil with "logic is not a emotion." Again, your grammar is wanting. The proper article for that phrase was AN, not A.