09/28/2006 11:00PM

Robert F. Carey Memorial preview


Hawthorne - Race 8
1 Mile (Turf)
Robert F. Carey Memorial Handicap (Grade 3)
3-year-olds and upward
Purse $150,000.

THERECOMESATIGER may have bitten off more than he could chew in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile as he was one-paced throughout while saving ground. The drop in class should perk him up in the Carey, and he was a solid triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure winner in a key stakes race at this distance at Arlington two starts back. The fact he wheels back in thirteen days is a bit of a concern, but the recent bullet work indicates he's sharp, and he looms a strong threat to win it all.
FORT PRADO rallied mildly against stakes-class Straight Line on dirt last time, and he is 2-2 when going dirt to turf in his career. It will be interesting to see if late-running Fort Prado gets enough pace on Saturday, but he is usually right there at the finish, and should make a stretch impact.
SCOOTER ROACH has an affinity for this surface. The 2004 Carey winner also boasts a Grade 3 Hawthorne Derby score over this course, and he'll attempt to duplicate the dirt to turf pattern that resulted in his optional claiming win at Arlington on August 9. He has some tactical speed, and may attempt to gain first run on likely pacesetter NO TOLERANCE.
COME ON JAZZ has a solid late kick, but one could argue that he wants more distance, and he could be at the mercy of a slow pace.
RAPID PROOF projects for a good ground-saving trip from his inside post, and the Grade 2 stakes-winner certainly fits with these from a class and speed figure perspective. He may be best utilized on the bottom of exotics. NO TOLERANCE makes the important third start of the form cycle, should appreciate turning back in distance, and may back these fractions down to his liking. He looms an interesting pace play.

1. Therecomesatiger
2. Fort Prado
3. Scooter Roach