02/22/2015 1:44PM

Road to the Derby analysis: Fountain of Youth Stakes

Barbara D. Livingston
Itsaknockout was placed first after Upstart was disqualified Saturday in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Gulfstream, Feb. 21, 2015
(50 Derby qualifying points for a win, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)

Winner: Itsaknockout
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
Owner: Starlight Racing
Beyer Speed Figure: 95

This was one of the strangest Kentucky Derby preps in years, with FROSTED looking like he couldn’t lose at the quarter pole only to finish fourth, UPSTART crossing the wire first, and then the stewards making a much-debated decision to disqualify Upstart in favor of the runner-up ITSAKNOCKOUT.

That the race produced a Beyer Speed Figure of 95 despite the final time of 1:46.28 for 1 1/16 miles is an indication of just how slow the track was playing. The Fountain of Youth was the lone two-turn dirt race of the day. It also was run 1 hour and 34 minutes after the previous dirt race, the Davona Dale, a one-turn mile for 3-year-old fillies, in which the final quarter-mile was run in 27.01 seconds. There were two grass races between the Davona Dale and the Fountain of Youth. It was a dry, often windy day, with low humidity, and even though the track was being watered with regularity, it obviously was dry and tiring.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 from Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker

Itsaknockout, placed first, was making his stakes debut and first start around two turns. He was in the second flight of horses during the run down the backstretch while racing between JUAN AND BINA and Upstart. As the field went around the far turn, he had trouble keeping pace with Upstart, who moved nearly three lengths clear of Itsaknockout, but Itsaknockout kept plugging away. He was a bit late to change leads in upper stretch, got to Upstart’s flank, and then the bumping occurred that the stewards ruled impacted the order of finish. Itsaknockout and Upstart definitely bumped in upper stretch, not long after Frosted initiated contact with Upstart. Upstart then continued to drift in front of Itsaknockout, but the question is whether Itsaknockout was empty by then and would have finished second anyway. The stewards thought otherwise. I’m not as certain.

Upstart was three paths wide on the first turn and fell into a good spot down the backstretch, in the clear outside two rivals while chasing two dueling leaders. He was asked aggressively to go after the leaders on the far turn and left the eventual winner Itsaknockout, but he wasn’t accelerating as sharply as he did in the Holy Bull. The dry track probably had something to do with it. It also could be that everyone was spent after a third quarter-mile in 23.78 seconds, which might have taken the starch out of everyone near the front. Upstart was a little late with his lead change, got past Frosted despite being bumped in his hindquarters, bumped with Itsaknockout, then drifted out under left-handed whipping from jockey Jose Ortiz but appeared to be coming away from Itsaknockout at the wire. He was disqualified from first to second.

FRAMMENTO, who finished third, remained on the rail for much of the race, then finished fastest of all through the lane after being angled out. It’s hard to evaluate his performance, since all the horses that were near the lead obviously were exhausted at the race’s end.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

Frosted, who wound up fourth, ran a baffling race. Outfitted with blinkers, he was into the race early and was lapped on leader BLUEGRASS SINGER heading down the backstretch after racing three paths wide on the first turn. He appeared to cruise to the front effortlessly on the final turn and looked like he was headed for certain victory. But between the quarter pole and the three-sixteenths pole, he started to decelerate noticeably and had no fight when challenged. He drifted out into Upstart in upper stretch and steadily faded in a race that ended at an earlier finish line than normal, owing to the race distance.

GORGEOUS BIRD raced in the clear in sixth in the field of eight during the run down the backstretch but never leveled off at any point yet was beaten only seven lengths while finishing fifth despite never getting involved.

Bluegrass Singer went to the lead from his inside draw, was no match for Frosted when Frosted went for the lead with three furlongs remaining, then tired to finish sixth. He was on the rail for much of the race, and Frosted wound up on the rail in the stretch. Combined with the position of winners in most of the main track races, it’s not inconceivable that in addition to the track being tiring, the rail might not have been the best spot on that track.

Juan and Bina raced on the rail behind the leaders, came under a hard ride with three furlongs to go, and faded to finish seventh.

DANNY BOY, who finished last of eight, was three paths wide entering the first turn, was taken to the rail soon thereafter, and was at or near the back of the pack the rest of the way.

Mark D More than 1 year ago
I HATE DQ's....and they should always error on side of NOT taking a horse down. But this was a no brainer. He should have come down.
Ray Sousa More than 1 year ago
How incompetent are the gulfstream stewards. Its time to professionalize and get rid of these old blind gezzers who spend most of their free time kissing up to jockeys agents and trainers trying to get hot tips..one of these old farts gave an interview after one of the worst series of errors by stewards ever. And we all got a view into how demented they really are.
Paul McAleavey More than 1 year ago
I'm not entirely upstart was going to win. I watched the weird run races on January 24th and yesterday were weird races too. I played and got the 6-8 pic three bc the track was slow that day, and the 55 dollar filly ran fast in the race,, got bumped and past and came back on 2/3 that passed her and she yielded late.she was solid they were both 11/12-1 that day. Upstart sat on the basically slow yet speed favoring track and nobody he beat had an excuse. Poet hers horse was the only one with a chance and if you paid attention he was very well bet while light raced in the Las Vegas futures. I wasn't surprised by the dq yet I saw several that were closer finishes and more bumping at various tracks the last few weeks at various tracks but they stood. I think the winning margin had more to do with pletchers horse being lightly raced as opposed to being finished. A clear race I think he could've won. Though horses weren't going by in the stretch.
Susan Huart More than 1 year ago
Upstart was robbed by an upstart!
Brian S More than 1 year ago
The 2 1/2 length win by Upstart was deceiving, when Itsaknockout was steadied, that's really when Upstart opened up on Itsaknockout. Otherwise, it looked like Upstart would've won by a length, not 2 1/2 lengths.