10/05/2012 3:18PM

Red Mile: Sunday 10/7 Analysis

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MEET STATS: 15 - 35 / $101.10

Best Bet: MODERN FAMILY (11th)    Spot Play: CEDAR DOVE (14th)

Race 1

This is a competitive 5-horse field. Any of these mares could win, but I’ll stick with (4) DROP THE BALL. She probably has the quickest eighth-of-a-mile burst and could turn out to be the fastest of this group when all is said and done. (1) ANNDROVETTE reunites with Tetrick and that is a big plus. You have to worry that he will get away with soft fractions in this abbreviated field; very dangerous. (5) ROCKLAMATION has quietly won more money than any of these mares. Regardless of the outcome today, if she wins the Breeders Crown in three weeks, she will win divisional honors.

Race 2

(6) MR CHICAGO has shown steady improvement since returning to the races and was super last time. Anything close to that effort would result in another romp. (4) RED ROCKS proved game last time. (2) MIKSBROTHERFRANK & (3) AIR-STEWART are contenders for the bottom of the exotics.

Race 3

(7) SUPERSTAR HANOVER leaves every week and seems to be forced into a quick pace each time. I don’t see her having to work as hard for the front today and she does add a catch driver this week. (6) CHILITODAYHOTAMALE comes off a big mile and it isn’t the first time she has done that. But the pace did set up perfectly for her and she might be an underlay. (1) ON THE BRIGHT SIDE flashed good speed in a wire to wire score most recently; clear chance.

Race 4

(5) CHECK ME OUT is simply the best 3-year-old filly trotter in the game and should win easily. (3) BLUFF wasn’t able to play her normal game on the lead because she broke early last time; can get second. (4) PERSONAL STYLE certainly has a shot if she can mind her manners. (6) WIN MISSY B has speed but may have to deal with Bluff early.

Race 5

(1) LITTLE BROWN FOX seems to do his best work when he is not on the lead. I’m not sure if he will get his preferred trip today, but I do believe he is the best in this field. (5) ARCHANGEL has been good most of the year and really can’t be blamed for the recent break because he was really flying around the turn at Yonkers and the slop caused him to lose his footing. Tetrick in the bike doesn’t hurt. (3) GYM TAN LAUNDRY can put in a big mile at times but doesn’t win that often.

Race 6

For some reason I feel that (7) GUCCIO will be defeated in the first heat, but I just can’t settle on which horse will do it. So, I’m picking Guccio on top because he is the best horse in the race, but with a asterisk. (4) MONEY ON MY MIND has really picked up his game of late and could control the action. (5) MY MVP seems likely to find a second over trip. Is he fast enough to win? (1) SOLVATO was better last time.

Race 7

Kentucky Filly Futurity second heat. Horses and posts will be announced after races 3 & 4.

Race 8

(7) FIVEKNUCKLESHUFFLE scored for me at 20-1 last week. This guy has ability and should be able to handle the tougher competition. (3) ONE THROUGH TEN takes a big drop in class; must use. (4) MAYTIME TERROR & (5) ARRINGAROSA couldn’t handle the top one last time but should get a piece.

Race 9

Kentucky Futurity second heat. Horses and posts will be announced after races 5 & 6.

Race 10

Kentucky Filly Futurity race-off (if necessary). Winners of races 3, 4 & 7 would return.

Race 11

(7) MODERN FAMILY drops way down and gets a free ride. (5) THE LINDY RESERVE disappointed last week but is capable of more. (2) ZOT comes off a solid effort.

Race 12

Kentucky Futurity race-off (if necessary). Winners of races 5, 6 & 10 would return.

Race 13

(4) CHAPTER SEVEN is overall the best older trotter right now. I expect Tetrick to take a patient approach and unleash the Toscano trainee mid to late in the mile. (6) MISTER HERBIE figures to be aggressive in this race. I can’t count him out. (1) ARCH MADNESS is one of the best trotters we have seen over the last ten years. That said, he seems to have lost a half-step.

Race 14

(5) CEDAR DOVE hasn’t been finishing her miles but now gets Lasix. Often enough that medication can really help a horse at the tail end of the race. (2) TAMLA CELEBER S was flat at Indiana Downs but maybe she needed a real start after the ship across the Atlantic. (8) FRENCHFRYSNVINEGAR has pacer speed early in the mile; always dangerous. (3) ACTION-BROADWAY has put in some good miles with Sears in the bike.

Race 15

(5) HOLIER THAN THOU looks to be rounding into form for Czernyson. (3) TACTICAL CAVIAR gets a pass for last week when she was part of a wicked pace scenario. (1) STERLING VOLO seems to like it here.

Race 16

(8) FOILED AGAIN just keeps chugging along with big efforts each week. He has earned $1 million this year and a win would put him over $4.5 million career. This is a nice field, but he is the best horse and should offer fair odds. (4) GOLDEN RECEIVER is also having a great season. He is always capable of going down the road but this track isn’t known for being that speed-favoring. (5) BETTOR SWEET has picked up his game of late. (4) WE WILL SEE is a wildcard. Will he wake up? (7) ARACACHE HANOVER is certainly capable on his best day.

Race 17

Usually I say that a horse is a step or two faster than the field, but (9) MAVEN is probably 10 -15 steps faster than this group. (5) VOLUPTUOUS RONDA improved last time and has a bit of early speed. (8) LOVE N LINDY came to play in her most recent. She will have plenty of horses to pass. (2) DELICIOUS can be involved if she minds her manners.

 

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