10/03/2014 10:28AM

Red Mile: Sunday 10/5 Analysis


Race 6 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: FATHER PATRICK (10th)

Spot Play: ELLIS PARK (6th)

Race 1

(3) REVENGE SHARK finished like he was shot out of a cannon last week when he won by eight lengths. I have a hard time going against him now. (5) RUFO kept up nicely versus much tougher foes last week. This is only his second start in six weeks and he could improve. (2) PANTHEON HANOVER finished a distant second to the winner last time, but that was only his first career start. More now?

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Race 2

(6) BIKINI SO TEENY has been facing some killers lately. I’m not sure if she is fast enough to win this race, but there is enough early speed signed on to set her up nicely. (5) TROT FUDGE SUNDAE displayed trot at both ends of the mile most recently. (4) CRAZY GRIGIO had no excuse last time but does fit with this group. (1) SINA is an exotics must. (9) UPFRONTLUCKYCAROL scored last week but had a perfect trip.

Race 3

(4) SHADES OF BAY broke making his second move during the mile while facing most of these last week. The mere fact that he was looking to retake tells me this colt has some ability. (1) DREAMS BEACHBOY brushed to the front and won in hand last time. (2) ROCK ON THE HILL was a decent second behind the former most recently.

Race 4

If (2) SEBASTIAN K shows up with his best effort, he wins. There are some capable of the upset, but none of them can trot with him when he is feeling good. (6) DAYLON MAGICIAN has been racing well at Mohawk. This seems like a long trip unless they were expecting a nice performance. (7) MASTER OF LAW defeated Sebastian K last time. His only downside is a lack of early speed. (4) QUICK DEAL was Gingras’ choice and we all know he can trot fast when he wants. (3) WISHING STONE wouldn’t be a shock, but I wouldn’t use him on top on too many tickets.

Race 5

(3) SHAKE IT CERRY is in career form, which is saying a lot for a filly that is 18 for 23 lifetime. (2) HEAVEN’S DOOR broke and came back for third last week. If she behaves, she’ll certainly finish second. (6) VANITY MATTERS has done well here in the past and could step up.

Race 6

(3) ELLIS PARK proved to be the real deal with a 1:49 score last week. The bulky field on Sunday provides some obstacles, but I can’t look past him. (10) ODDS ON EQUULEUS finished second behind the top choice last Sunday. There seems to be enough live horses to carry this guy into the race despite the bad draw. (11) ROCKNROLL REALITY was a pretty good second last time and has upset potential. (6) PARNU HANOVER has loads of early speed.

Race 7

(6) LINDYS TRU GRIT made a bold move into a quick pace and could not last until the wire. Let’s give him another shot and hope for a cover trip. (11) TIRADE HANOVER is the one to beat but must overcome the second tier. Gelding has won three straight. (4) OPULENT YANKEE charged home for the victory last time while lowering his lifetime mark by seven seconds! (2) KING CITY should be an exotics player.

Race 8

This is a great race with many possible winners pending trips. (3) MISTERY WOMAN is on a three-race win streak and has the advantage of two stablemates to her inside, one of which is likely to provide live cover. (4) BEE A MAGICIAN has been fairly consistent this year but hasn’t won that much. The fact that she may be the favorite is a big turnoff. (6) CLASSIC MARTINE has come up big when she needs to and seems likely to be controlling the pace. (1) D’ORSAY doesn’t win very often but is always dangerous. (2) MAVEN raced okay last time but I need to see more before backing her on top. (10) HANDOVER BELLE moves into the Burke barn.

Race 9

(5) ROCKLAMATION is an underappreciated mare that gets a piece or more in just about every race. She is plenty versatile and has as good a chance as any of winning. (2) SHEBESTINGIN returns to the scene of her world record mile and comes off a qualifier where she beat older pacer Thinking Out Loud. (4) YAGONNAKISSMEORNOT has arguably had the best year of any of her peers; very dangerous. (9) SHELLISCAPE went the best mile of her career at this track.

Race 10

(1) FATHER PATRICK is the best sophomore trotter in the nation. He has to make a mistake to lose, and I’m not expecting any miscues. (6) NUNCIO is clearly second best and should complete a very short exacta. (2) IL SOGNO DREAM can save ground and pick up the pieces for third.

Race 11

(3) FOILED AGAIN reunites with Yannick Gingras after a brutal trip last time at Scioto. Draw a line through his last PP line and you have a horse that is cycling upward. (8) CLEAR VISION doesn’t get the respect deserving of a horse that continually earns hundreds of thousands each year. If Brett Miller can line up a smooth trip, watch out. (7) BETTOR’S EDGE should be leaving fast and get a big piece; using more underneath. (6) MODERN LEGEND may be ignored in the wagering, but is coming off the best race of his career. (9) SWEET LOU has been trending downward. If he beats me, so be it.

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