Updated on 09/17/2011 5:54PM

Profit-takers now ought to be in a buying mood


LEXINGTON, Ky. - If recent yearling sales are any indicator, Kentucky's November auction season may well produce some fireworks.

Fasig-Tipton's select sale, which begins Sunday at 1:30 p.m. Eastern, features the dam of Smarty Jones as well as dispersals from the John Franks estate and Daniel Borislow's stable, among other marquee horses. Keeneland's 12-day November auction, starting Monday at 10 a.m., also offers lots from the Franks estate; a raft of outstanding racemares, including Take Charge Lady and Unbridled Elaine; million-dollar-sale producing mares from the dissolving Stone Farm-Stonerside Stable partnership; and horses from Bob and Beverly Lewis's stable.

It's difficult to compare one November sale with another because of the highly variable catalogs from year to year. But it is certainly true that when breeders have made money at the yearling sales, they are more likely to return to the November market in search of mares. A bullish yearling market can also bode well for weanling sales in November. Buyers who were outbid on yearlings might decide to look for bargains among the younger stock, while pinhookers who made money selling yearlings should return to restock their shelves.

This year, the Keeneland September yearling sale popped off record results and became the world's top-grossing Thoroughbred auction ever, led by Japanese agent Hideyuki Mori's $8 million final bid for a Storm Cat-Welcome Surprise colt. Fasig-Tipton's Saratoga sale finished with losses, but its July sale - a good middle-market indicator - ended with double-digit gains across the board and a lower buyback rate.

"Sellers were generally successful at the yearling sales this year, and I think they'll have confidence to buy additional mares and make capital commitments to restock and expand their broodmare holdings," said Fasig-Tipton chief operating officer Boyd Browning. "November should be pretty solid for sellers, but they always should be realistic about the quality of the horses they have for sale."

Keeneland's 2003 November auction produced a world-record mare price of $7.1 million for Cash Run and a world-record weanling price of $2.4 million for a Storm Cat-Spain colt. The economic climate and quality of the pedigrees on offer bode well this year, but director of sales Geoffrey Russell also sounded a note of caution.

"I think the September yearling sale gives us a good, positive feeling going into the November sale again," Russell said, "but there are other factors, too. You like to see an upbeat market like we had in September, but I think sometimes a lot of people are happy to just get ahead of the curve. It's been a tough three years for many breeders, and the September yearling sale was the first good sign they've had. But we hope they'll come back in November and reinvest some of that money. We're optimistic."

Both the Fasig-Tipton and Keeneland auctions offer breeders the chance to access some unusually successful bloodlines.

Fasig-Tipton's headliners include I'll Get Along, the dam of Smarty Jones. She last sold publicly in 2001, when Roy and Pat Chapman dispersed their breeding stock. I'll Get Along brought $130,000 from CloverLeaf Farms II then, but she has since become the dam of wildly popular 2004 Derby and Preakness winner Smarty Jones - and she is carrying a full sibling to him.

Other standouts at the Fasig-Tipton auction are Joiski's Star, carrying a full sibling to Breeders' Cup Mile winner Singletary; the Grade 1-winning racehorse Toccet; Loudrangle, dam of Canadian champion Soaring Free; and a three-quarter brother to champion 2-year-old Answer Lively.

At Keeneland, the 4,460-horse catalog has quality in its quantity. The catalog includes champion Hidden Lake; Grade 1 winners Take Charge Lady, Stellar Jayne, and Elloluv; millionaires Jostle and Smok'n Frolic; and the dams of Grade 1 winners Keeper Hill, Joey Franco, Star Parade, Whywhywhy, Circle of Life, Toccet, Marylebone, and numerous others - and that's just among mares selling in the auction's tony first two sessions.

While they are shopping, buyers at the November auctions also will take keen notice of weanlings by first-crop sires. Stallions whose get are debuting in the marketplace this season include Aldebaran, Came Home, Johannesburg, Jump Start, Officer, and Street Cry.

The Keeneland catalog also offers the following notable horses at its first two sessions, when top prices are most likely:

* Hip Nos. 169 and 177, Dessert and Dublino, both Del Mar Oaks winners;

* Hip Nos. 213 and 214, Horns Gray, carrying a full sibling to Grade 1 winner Awesome Humor, and her 2004 Pulpit colt;

* Hip No. 221, multiple stakes winner Ivanavinalot, in foal to Mineshaft;

* Hip No. 227, a Point Given half-brother to You and I;

* Hip No. 229, Lady Aloma, dam of Canadian champion Chopinina, in foal to Elusive Quality;

* Hip No. 256, a Monarchos half-brother to champion 2-year-old Action This Day;

* Hip Nos. 268 and 269, millionaire Silent Eskimo, in foal to Vindication, and her 2004 filly by Fusaichi Pegasus;

* Hip No. 316, Prom Knight, the dam of Breeders' Cup Classic winner Volponi, in foal to Mineshaft;

* Hip No. 367, a Fusaichi Pegasus half-brother to champion sprinter Squirtle Squirt;

* Hip No. 400, Valiant Jewel, dam of Grade 1 winner Friendly Michelle, in foal to Distorted Humor;

* Hip No. 413, Words of War, dam of E Dubai, in foal to Storm Cat;

* Hip No. 416, millionaire Grade 1 winner You, in foal to A. P. Indy;

* Hip No. 452, Bolshoi Comedy, dam of Grade 1 winner Kela, in foal to Elusive Quality;

* Hip No. 473, Concolour, dam of Grade 1 winner Evening Attire, in foal to Grindstone;

* Hip No. 489, Danzig's Beauty, dam of successful sire Distorted Humor, in foal to Lemon Drop Kid;

* Hip No. 494, millionaire Dimitrova;

* Hip No. 500, Dramatical, dam of Canadian champion Numerous Times, in foal to Aldebaran;

* Hip No. 504, multiple stakes winner Ema Bovary;

* Hip No. 507, a Came Home half-sister to Canadian champion Sweetest Thing;

* Hip No. 533, Grade 1 winner Gaviola, in foal to Gone West;

* Hip No. 538, Grade 1 winner Got Koko;

* Hip No. 569, an Awesome Again half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winner Exotic Wood;

* Hip No. 593, Miss Du Bois, carrying a full sibling to Grade 1 winner Film Maker; and

* Hip No. 617, Grade 1 winner Nonsuch Bay.