06/06/2011 1:37PM

Prime Cut

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Prime Cut
Coady Photography/Keeneland
Date Track Race Finish Chart Distance Time BSF Video
6/11/11 BEL Belmont Stakes 11th 1 1/2 mile 2:30.88 64 Video
4/9/11 KEE Lexington 2nd 1 1/16 mile 1:42.00 87 Video
5/14/11 BEL Peter Pan 3rd 1 1/8 mile 1:49.40 89 Video

Prime Cut

Owner:  Donald A. Adam
Trainer:  Neil Howard
Record: 7-2-2-2
Best Beyer:  91
Breeder: Stuart McPhee
Tomlinson Distance Rating:  269

Auction: $55,000 weanling (Keeneland, November 2008); $475,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2009)
Dosage Profile: 7-1-10-4-0 (22)
Dosage Index: 1.44
Center of Distribution: 0.50


PROFILE

By Marcus Hersh

STRENGTHS
A consistent colt with some talent and upside.

Third or better in all six of his starts since making it back to the races late last year at Fair Grounds. Connections regarded him highly all along, but it was only in late March that the rest of us got to see why. His win over the greatly talented (and, so far, unratebable-in-routes) Bind on March 26 was the fastest one-mile-70-yard race (and there were plenty of them) during the 2010-2011 Fair Grounds meet.

Prime Cut has tactical speed and some stamina, though how much of the latter we don’t yet really know. He got in a race over the Belmont track with a decent third in the Peter Pan and could come forward from that performance.

WEAKNESSES
Comments from trainer Neil Howard published in DRF last week suggested Prime Cut was not a likely Belmont runner, and his participation was only announced this past weekend. With a second to Derby Kitten in the Lexington and his fading third behind Alternation and Adios Charlie in the Peter Pan, Prime Cut’s two stakes races so far have marked him as a cut below the best in the generation. Neither his immediate ancestry nor his deeper female family suggests a horse crying out for 1 1/2 miles, though his pedigree does point to a colt that could make noise on grass later this summer. 

BETTING VALUE
From this vantage point, a fair win price on Prime Cut would be 30-1. Handicappers who find things to like about the colt should definitely get square odds with the betting masses focused on horses coming out of Triple Crown races.


PEDIGREE ANALYSIS

By Dan Illman

Sire:
Bernstein was a multiple Group 3 winner in Ireland, taking the Railway Stakes at six furlongs as a juvenile of 1999 before winning the Concorde Stakes the following season at seven-eighths of a mile. He failed to win in three route tries, however.

At stud, Bernstein has sired several champions overseas including Storm Mayor (Horse of the Year, champion stayer in Argentina), Storm Military (champion miler in Argentina), Storm Marcopolo (champion sprinter in Argentina), and Goshawk Ken (champion juvenile colt in Japan). Storm Mayor won two runnings of the 12-furlong Premio Carlos Pellegrini on grass. 

In North America, Bernstein is generally regarded as a sire of middle-distance talents, especially on grass. Dream Empress took the Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on Polytrack while Miss World won the Grade 1 Garden City Stakes at nine furlongs on turf.

Dam:
The dam is an unraced half-sister to Disco Rico, a fleet sprinter who won a pair of Grade 3 events at six furlongs. Disco Rico never started in a route race. 

The second dam was stakes-placed going five furlongs on turf while the third dam was a multiple stakes-winning sprinter. The fourth dam was a multiple stakes winner.

This is the female family of Grade 2 route winner Miss Slewpy.

Outlook:
Prime Cut's pedigree is that of a miler. He failed to see out the nine furlongs of the Peter Pan and may find this marathon distance too far.