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Preakness Stakes 2011 handicapping chat
Highlights from Friday's Preakness Stakes 2011 chat with DRF handicappers Dan Illman, Mike Beer and Marcus Hersh. Their top 3 picks for the Preakness are in bold below:
Dan Illman Like Midnight Interlude to improve a bit. Can't throw him out. Don't think Flashpoint will stay the trip.
Mike Beer I don't care who rides MidniteInterlude, don't like him this time
Mike Beer i'd be shocked if Flashpoint was around at the end
Mike Beer Shackleford had a perfect front-runner trip in the derby & couldn't get there - more pace against him this time
Dan Illman Liked Midnight Interlude's Santa Anita Derby. Wide all the way around the track in first start against winners. Feel Derby too bad to be true
Mike Beer Top 3: Sway away, Dance City, Animal Kingdom
Dan Illman My picks: Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man, Shackleford
Mike Beer not convinved SwayAway wants distance, but he ran big in ArkDerby, have to give him one more
Marcus Hersh Picks: Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man, Dialed In, Dance City
Mike Beer what makes anyone think Mucho Macho Man can turn the tables on Animal Kingdom tomorrow? playing Animal Kingdom not to reproduce?
Marcus Hersh Dan - pace threat might be the ticket right now. Main track is sllloowww, front-runners doing well.
Mike Beer Will Dance City really be a longshot? - feels buzzy to me...
Mike Beer i think Dance City will go shorter than SwayAway - but i'm awful at predicting these things...
Dan Illman Concealed Identity the only Maryland-bred in Preakness. Likes track. Has one eye.
Dan Illman New shooters in Preakness don't knock my socks off. Sticking with Derby horses. Animal Kingdom pounded them in Derby.
Mike Beer i'm on board w/the ArkDerby horses - espescially since the 3rd/4th finishers were best & run in the Preak
Dan Illman Don't see what the big deal is with Dialed In.
Dan Illman Literally. One eye.
Dan Illman Think Pimlico track bias is way overrated.
Mike Beer would never bet Dailed In - if you like Animal Kingdom, try to hook him up - Picks, etc
Mike Beer don't know (nor care) who the riders are - in any race
Dan Illman Maybe Mr. Commons improves after throat surgery.
Mike Beer isn't MrCommons a turf horse?
Dan Illman Beer, you think everyone is a turf horse.
Mike Beer it's a weak crop as afar as distance-racing goes, but there are some fast ones out there. 3 year-old sprints could be interesting
Dan Illman Think shackleford has to sit off Flashpoint.
Mike Beer Shackleford can't have as easy a time on the lead tomorrow - tough to make him
Mike Beer why does anyone think the Derby also-rans are playable? Animal Kingdom just won't show? he drilled them at Churchill Downs
Mike Beer Shak never won (or run even reasonably well) from off the pace...
Mike Beer Odds: Dialed In currently 5/2, Animal Kingdom 7/2
Mike Beer best closer is Animal Kingdom
Mike Beer SwayAway may be best sprinting...hoping GoGo can get him to settle & time it right
Dan Illman 4 tosses - Isn't He Perfect, Flashpoint, Concealed Identity, Norman Asbjornson. Now, box 'em.
Mike Beer auto toss: NormAsbjornson, Isnt he perfect, Concealed Identity, Flashpoint
Dan Illman In other Preakness stakes races, how about China in Maryland Sprint, Desert Sage in Gallorette?
Mike Beer like No Explaining too
Dan Illman Nope, thinking he goes in Schaefer on dry track.
Mike Beer King Congie has already run on dirt - and not well
Mike Beer Flashpoint is very fast - distance a gigantic question & his Fla Derby was not good
Mike Beer Distance in not a question for Animal Kingdom just needs to reproduce last. will he?
Mike Beer Dialed In ran last 1/2 under 47, first 7f in 1:30 at Kentucky Derby...?
Dan Illman Listen, a one-run closer like Dialed In always needs pace and race luck. He'll get pace. Will he get trip?
Mike Beer Mucho Macho Man has done nothing wrong, but when has he shown that he's really good?
Dan Illman It wouldn't surprise me if Midnight Interlude improves enough. Likes his SA Derby. Not good in Kentucky. Too early to give up on him
Mike Beer didnt Sway Away run better than Dance City in AkDerby? both ran well but Santa Anita had terrible trip
Mike Beer Using Sway Away & Dance City on all tix
Mike Beer everyone forgetting about Flashpoint? he's the pace...
Mike Beer Flashpoint broke outward in the FlaDerby & they tried to rate - won't be the case tomorrow
Marcus Hersh Of note to me is the PIM track surface. While wet Thursday it was playing very slow. Dry today, but quite slow again.
Marcus Hersh Some trainers talk up their stock. Others talk them down. Motion seems quietly confident.
Marcus Hersh I don't know that slow PIM favors anyone. But slow tracks can be weird. Tuff to figure.
Marcus Hersh Dan Illman - by interesting pace in upcoming race 9, you're seeing fall-apart? Too much speed?
Marcus Hersh Not an Astrology fan.
Marcus Hersh And can't see King Congie.
Marcus Hersh Animal Kingdom is so much more than a turf horse, IMO
Marcus Hersh Where did Mucho Macho Man get stopped in Derby enough to make up distance on Animal Kingdom?
Marcus Hersh I don't like Sway Away, but i do like the move to Gomez
Marcus Hersh I like Mucho Macho Man and respect Mucho Macho Man. Realize he's a late foal. But to me, he's exposed by now.
Marcus Hersh Midnight Interlude spent the winter in SoCal. Want nothing from there this year.
Marcus Hersh Dance City did really well hanging around after hot OP pace. Mental issues?
Marcus Hersh Wow - strange, strange track at PIM right now.
Marcus Hersh Nehro is waiting for the Belmont
Mike Beer Nehro waiting for Belmont - he can hang in that race, as well...
Marcus Hersh Mike Beer - Nehro does have a habit of doing his best running during the gallop out.
Marcus Hersh Has anyone seen odds on Animal Kingdom to win the Triple Crown?
Mike Beer Marcus - Animal Kingdom 6/1 to win Triple Crown, i believe
Marcus Hersh 6-1 on Triple Crown bid I would not take. I think he can do it, but need twice that price.
Marcus Hersh Don't need to be a super horse. Just better than the others, and to stay the trip. Both possible.
Marcus Hersh Belmont easier than Preakness for Animal Kingdom? By a hair? Tough one.
Marcus Hersh More speed means a horse like Dialed In could do much better this time.
Mike Beer Have bad feeling Royal Delta will be very short price...we'll see. I'm against Wyomia, win or lose...
Dan Illman Don't love King Congie on dirt. Had two poor prior runs on it, albeit against good competition.
Marcus Hersh RE King Congie: Strangely, the best horses by Bade of Silver seem better on grass.
Dan Illman Animal Kingdom didn't have dirt form. That makes him different than poor dirt form King Congie.
Mike Beer Marcus Hersh liked Animal Kingdom on dirt - had him on top in Derby
Marcus Hersh Here's the thing about Animal Kingdom's first dirt: Big part of problem with that is the kickback. But Turfway Poly kickback is huge
Marcus Hersh Animal Kingdom continued. . . So Animal Kingdom already had dealt with kickback in Spiral. That's why he dropped to last.
Marcus Hersh Wide draw for Mr. Commons no good, no good at all. Even if he was good enough
Marcus Hersh Have you watched races at Turfway Park? It's a storm of kickback. A storm.
Marcus Hersh If you all have a chance, go back and watch Animal Kingdom replays. He has done little wrong.
Marcus Hersh Wyomia a little dead on board for Miss Preakness? I'm hesistant to dive in too deep with this funky surface.
Marcus Hersh Animal Kingdom's price is unappealing. I will try to make things more interesting singling in the pick 4 and pick 3.
Marcus Hersh With Flashpoint in the race, Shackleford may be the stalker
Mike Beer Pace almost has to be stronger than it was in Derby...don't know if that helps Dialed In enough...
Marcus Hersh There's hype for Astrology? I missed it.
Marcus Hersh Hearing dry track for Preakness
Marcus Hersh Dance City would be my top horses who should be double-digit odds
Marcus Hersh Have a sneaking thought that skepticism could lead to 3-1 on Animal Kingdom. Hoping, at least.
Marcus Hersh Flashpoint is a very talented horse who probably will prove better around one turn.