05/16/2010 11:00PM

Preakness selections and analysis


1. Paddy O'Prado

2. Super Saver

3. Lookin At Lucky

4. Dublin

Earlier this week, I had been leaning toward one of the new faces, either A Little Warm or Hurricane Ike. But with those two out of the Preakness with physical problems it is hard to look past the logical choices coming out of the Derby in what is a very uninspiring renewal of the Preakness. Paddy O'Prado had trained as well as anybody going into the Derby and, despite a couple of hiccups during the race, turned in perhaps the best performance of his career to prove he is at the top of his game. He figures to offer the only real value among the three top choices, with the key question being whether he will handle a dry dirt track as well as he did the wet stuff at Churchill Downs.

Super Saver got the trip of a lifetime to win the Derby over a wet Churchill Downs track he obviously relishes. Like Paddy O'Prado, the question remains whether he will duplicate the effort over dry and unfamiliar footing at Pimlico. That being said, he looks like the most talented of this group and the one to beat again.

Like the top pair, Lookin At Lucky trained extremely well coming into the Derby, but he lost all chance when he was shuffled far back shortly after the break. He has one fast race on his r sum and plenty of excuses at 3. He also has questions to answer, namely whether he is as good as his big effort in the Rebel suggests. Although he was an overlay on Derby Day because of the post position draw, I'm expecting him to be overbet and undervalued this time around as a result of the well-documented traffic issues he encountered two weeks earlier.

Dublin is a hard-knocking sort who turned in a creditable effort on Derby Day, considering the ground loss he sustained around the final turn. Obviously, the outside draw is not likely to enhance his chances at Old Hilltop.

Of the group left, none seems fast enough to affect the favorites. First Dude is perhaps the most likely of the bunch to dent the leaderboard.