Updated on 05/19/2012 12:16PM

Preakness handicapping chat with Free, Hersh, Illman


DRF handicappers Brad Free, Marcus Hersh, and Dan Illman participated in a live Preakness handicapping chat on Thursday, May 17. Here are the highlights:

BradFree: Tiger Walk at 30-1 has a shot to clunk into the trifecta. Cozzetti and Zetterholm look like the same horse, wouldn't split hairs between a 20-1 shot and a 30-1 shot. Creative Cause frequent flyer miles not an issue for me.

DanIllman I'm not as bullish on Teeth of the Dog as others. The Wood Memorial was not a productive race.

BradFree: Teeth of the Dog has a chance, yes, based on his improved third in the Wood.

MarcusHersh: I'm not feeling any love for Teeth of the Dog. What happened with horses out of the Wood Memorial to make one think positive?

MarcusHersh: The issue with Daddy Nose Best in the Kentucky Derby had nothing, in my opinion, to do with jockey.

BradFree: Daddy Nose Best is a sleeper horse for me, and a must-use in the tri.

BradFree: I'll Have Another should be positioned closest to likely pacesetter Bodemeister.

[PREAKNESS STAKES: Get PPs, watch the race live, and bet with DRF Bets]

DanIllman Pretension and Teeth of the Dog have a little speed, but not Bodemeister speed. I'll Have Another should be on Bode's tail.

MarcusHersh: Daddy Nose Best's credentials are wins over Lucky Chappy and Isn't He Clever. I don't think he's very good,

MarcusHersh: My question is whether going much slower helps Bode much. Think running horses off their feet his specialty.

MarcusHersh: If you were concerned about Bode coming back on 3 weeks after sharp Arkansas Derby, how bout third hard race in seven weeks?

BradFree: Agree with Marcus Hersh -- fast pace is Bodemeister's strength. If he slows down, the closers are in contact.

DanIllman Marcus, that's a good point. A slower pace could actually help horses like Creative Cause and I'll Have Another, especially if Bode regresses.

DanIllman Went the Day Well is the buzz horse. Many are picking him to win. I wonder if his "rally" in the Derby was more of a mirage.

BradFree: ¬Handicapping dilemma from Derby is evaluating closers. Did they finish, or did leaders back up?

MarcusHersh: I could see Went the Day Well being positioned in the 2nd flight this time if he breaks right.

DanIllman: I think Creative Cause can win. He didn't break well, took dirt while in between in the opening 1/4, then went very wide..

BradFree: I will be surprised if the winner is a horse other than the I'll Have Another or Bodemeister.

MarcusHersh: I think Creative Cause and Went the Day Well can win. Also think Creative Cause can stay closer to the leaders than he did last time. That being said, I'm torn on Creative Cause. In my mind, he could win or finish 9th and I'd not be surprised. I don't think Zetterholm is good enough to win, but he has displayed a strong kick & is improving.

BradFree: Other good races Saturday at Pimlico besides Preakness, including Grade 2 Dixie one race earlier.

MarcusHersh: I think Bode is going to be overbet when it's I'll Have Another's race to lose. I think I'll Have Another will be 3-1 on Saturday and playable both to win and on top of exactas and tris.

BradFree: Anyone besides me betting against Mamma Kimbo in the Black-Eyed Susan on Friday?

MarcusHersh: Mamma Kimbo beat up on lesser foes and got a big fig for it at OP. If she's such a star, why no Oaks??

DanIllman Mamma Kimbo is an underlay, but who will run with her early?

MarcusHersh: I think there's just enough pace to keep Mamma honest.

MarcusHersh: Let's jump ahead. Who's looked at I'll Have Another's pedigree? Full of mile-and-a-half horses. If he gets this one, very interesting...

DanIllman I'm not worried about the 14-day turnaround for I'll Have Another. Might be a bit tougher for Bode.

BradFree: Pretension faced graded stakes 3-year-olds twice, got drilled twice.

BradFree: Creative Cause is the key horse for me in the exacta, with the two favs.

MarcusHersh: There won't be any Teeth of the Dog on my tickets, for whatever that's worth.

MarcusHersh: The Dixie is totally wide open. I'd bet against Casino Host. He got onto the best part of the track at FG.

DanIllman Air Support has a chance in the Dixie.

DanIllman I'm not using Daddy Nose Best in the Preakness.

MarcusHersh: Agree that Disposable is not fast. But think Todd Pletcher's other horse is going to pressure Mamma. Race could fall apart.

BradFree: Let me just say that the coronation of Bodemeister as a superstar is way premature. I'll Have Another is my top choice. I need Creative Cause to hit the board at 6-1 or higher, and for Bodemeister to run out.

MarcusHersh: Would love to run Bode out. Think it’s entirely possible.

MarcusHersh: I'll Have Another with Creative Cause or Went the Day Well in 2nd in the trifecta would pay all right if Bode's out of it.