10/17/2013 4:47PM

Breeders Crown: Pocono Saturday 10/19 analysis

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Best Bet: I LUV THE NITELIFE (7th)

Spot Play: UFFIZI HANOVER (4th)

Race 1

(2) LONEWOLF CURRIER is probably the most talented of this group when he is feeling good. I’ll give him the narrow call. (4) ULTIMATE BEACHBOY comes into this race sharp and should be close to the action. (3) DUC DORLEANS arrived in the U.S. for this barn and got stuck in post seven at Yonkers; another shot.

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Race 2

(3) VIBE BLUE CHIP was a solid third versus Your So Vain last time. I’ll give him the edge against a close-knit group. (4) MAJOR ATHENS comes off a win versus conditioned foes and adds Sears. (1) HIGH BRIDGE is certainly capable but doesn’t seem worth a shorter price.

Race 3

(2) FATHER PATRICK has reeled off eight straight victories. Jimmy Takter-trained colt is simply more advanced than most of Saturday’s rivals. Something would really have to go awry for him to lose. (8) NUNCIO gave everyone another taste of his raw speed in last week’s elimination. He is fast enough to play with the ‘Father’ and the most likely to upset. (7) MUSCLE NETWORK backtracked with a break after two strong efforts at The Red Mile. If things go smoothly, he can contend. (3) CREDIT FASHION & (6) DON DORADO are the two which took byes into the final. Each merits a look in the lower exotics.

Race 4

(3) UFFIZI HANOVER raced big in her elimination despite only finishing fourth. She showed early speed, came uncovered and battled in the stretch. With 5 seconds and only 1 win in 10 starts, I’m concerned about her desire, but she seems like a sharp filly with a big chance to win. (8) PRECOCIOUS BEAUTY was the toast of the town but got nipped at the wire last week. Despite that loss and her outside draw, she is the one to beat; must use. (6) SHE’S DA BOMB was wide earlier in the mile than driver Jody Jamieson might have liked, but when it is all said and done, she came up a bit flat. If she brings her best game, she will be a contender at a decent price. (4) ALLSTAR RATING has really come into her own, but seems like an underlay in this spot. (1) ACT NOW followed along nicely last week and could get a small piece.

Race 5

(3) SHAKE IT CERRY will need her ‘A’ game to beat the super-speedy (2) COOLER SCHOONER, who blitzed her eliminations opponents by over 10 lengths. I see Shake It Cerry coming away in the pocket behind Schooner with the opportunity to gobble her up in the stretch as the second choice. (8) GODDESS has enough early speed to leave for position and the switch to Sears is usually a plus. (5) LIFETIME PURSUIT is fast enough to go with the top two but I was disappointed with her elimination mile. (1) STRUCK BY LINDY is capable of stepping up.

Race 6

(5) INTIMIDATE won the Breeders Crown last year and has shown no signs of weakness through his current five-race win streak. Pocono being a speed-favoring track may be a concern to some, but this guy has that facet to his game if need be. (8) UNCLE PETER has already been a 1:50 3/5 mile at Pocono this year and seems to be comfortable on the lead or from off the pace; price play. (2) WISHING STONE draws inside and can fly off the gate. Don’t be shocked if this guy is involved at a price. (1) MARKET SHARE hasn’t won a race in months but is racing better now than he was in late August and early September. He wouldn’t be a shock but will be an underlay. (6) MISTER HERBIE has trotted in 1:52 or lower five out of his last six starts. (4) GUCCIO looked a bit better with Lasix added last time. (7) ARCH MADNESS is sharp now. Will his form carryover from Lexington?

Race 7

(7) I LUV THE NITELIFE has only one defeat on her card in 13 races and I see the layoff (last race on 9/18) as a plus. She has been racing every two weeks since May and could use the freshening. (1) PARLEE BEACH gets the nod for second because of her strong early speed and inside position. She might be able to work out a trip and spice up the exacta. (5) SHEBESTINGIN is the fastest filly or mare pacer in history after setting the record two weeks ago in Lexington. I fear this Joe Holloway trainee, but she throws in a bad one at times and I think I Luv The Nitelife will control the action. (3) CAROLS DESIRE has come to form for trainer Ron Burke but still needs to find more.

Race 8

(4) SO SURREAL didn’t win his elimination but put in a nice easy mile to easily make the final. This colt lost a bit of ground when tipped wide into the stretch and Tetrick couldn’t get him back in gear until too late. He is as fast as any of these and the price will be right. (1) SOMESTARSOMEWHERE has to be the colt to beat off his last two efforts. You know Yannick Gingras will be aggressive from the rail, but there are enough serious competitors to want to search for a price. (3) ARI ALLSTAR is one that may not be as talented as some others but could suck along or pick up live cover from this cozy post. (2) LUCK BE WITHYOU was super in his debut for the Chris Oakes barn and is hard to leave off at least a few tickets. Quite frankly, any of these colts could be a part of the exotics.

Race 9

(1) MAVEN just seems too sharp to lose right now. I wouldn’t say she is a lock, but I have to give her the edge despite the short price. (2) CHECK ME OUT put in a nice easy elimination mile where she closed with good energy. A win here would put her over $2 million in career earnings and she seems to be peaking at the right time. (5) D’ORSAY is hard to figure at times but has high early speed and will make her presence felt if she minds her manners. (3) BAX OF LIFE raced well to win her elimination.

Race 10

(7) SHELLISCAPE has been a new horse since moving into the PJ Fraley barn. Her parked-the-mile elimination effort was stunning and she’ll need another huge effort from the outside post on Saturday. As long as her price stays above 5-1, I’m on board. (2) ANNDROVETTE is looking for her third consecutive Breeders Crown victory in this division. She is certainly the one to beat but might not be the best play at shorter odds. (1) ROCKLAMATION was a bit flat in last week’s elimination effort but the inside post should help her stay close to the action without working too hard. (5) MONKEY ON MY WHEEL has a shot if Sears can make the front again. (9) DROP THE BALL is stuck in post nine. I’m not sure I can map out a scenario in my head where she gets a decent trip.

Race 11

(4) BEE A MAGICIAN has bested this group time and again while amassing a perfect 14-for-14 record. With all the early speed to her inside, it is hard to imagine her having a problem extending her win streak. (1) COFFEECAKE HANOVER may be the speed of the speed and her inside post will help her work out at least a pocket trip. (3) FRAU BLUCHER perked back up here at Pocono and could be a factor with a decent trip. (2) MA CHERE HALL would be no surprise in any exotic slot.

Race 12

(1) CAPTAINTREACHEROUS seems to overcome whatever trip or circumstance is thrown his way. Is it possible he loses? Yes. Am I expecting it? NO. (7) SUNFIRE BLUE CHIP could be in a sweet spot to get a big piece. On paper there is not much speed signed on to the race and I’m guessing Gingras might have him in full flight with hopes of sitting behind the Captain. (5) VEGAS VACATION’s hopes might rest in his stablemate (3) LUCAN HANOVER. If the latter can provide live cover and Captain gets roughed up a bit, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Vegas Vacation in a photo for win. (2) BEACH MEMORIES is well drawn with early speed; exotics player. (8) SUNSHINE BEACH will need to fire away from the gate at 100 MPH or hope for a good trip. Either way, the road to the winner’s circle seems loaded with trouble.

Race 13

(1) ROYALTY FOR LIFE was given an easy mile in last week’s elimination. You could almost see that driver Brian Sears knew what needed to be done to qualify and wasn’t looking to stress a horse that just raced two heats the prior week. I’m looking for him to yield early and make one quick brush. (4) DEADLIEST CATCH made a bold 27-second third quarter move last week which caught my eye. I’m not sure he has enough talent, but if the price is right I would try him. (7) SMILIN ELI has pacer-like speed off the gate and should easily be able to overcome the outside draw. You have to think he’ll be tighter in his second start in four weeks. (2) ALL LAID OUT raced well last week and seems to be moving forward. (5) SPIDER BLUE CHIP has early speed and is an obvious player.

Race 14

(5) PET ROCK comes off a throw-out race at The Red Mile on an off-track where he had a bad trip. He is one of the fresher horses coming into this Crown final having raced only three times in the last 49 days. This world record holder can do it from on or off the pace and should be a fair price in the low single digits. (6) WARRAWEE NEEDY makes just his second start for trainer Mark Ford. The son of E Dees Cam was used hard uncovered in his elimination after a 49-day break. I’m expecting him to show even more now. (2) FOILED AGAIN is the sentimental pick, but this race is loaded with outside speed and he may need a lifetime best effort (which is saying a lot) to win. I can’t back him as the favorite. (1) CLEAR VISION is very sharp and this race is loaded with early speed types to set up his rally. (8) BOLT THE DUER can leave off the gate in a hurry and merits consideration in all spots. (3) GOLDEN RECEIVER could be tough if left alone on the lead, but I don’t see that happening here.

 

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