09/30/2009 11:00PM

Pick six: Updated analysis for Oct. 2


Race 3, first leg

The two-day carryover is $278,277, and pick six bettors probably will need to go four-deep in the first leg, a $25,000 claiming sprint for non-winners of two lifetime. OLYMPIO'S JEWEL drops to the bottom after pressing and fading vs.$25k N2L claimers at Del Mar, and he faces only one serious pace rival. If 'JEWEL can somehow avoid a duel with the pop-and-stop gelding on the rail, then 'JEWEL can win with a pressing trip. The Pro-Ride surface played relatively fair the first two days of the meet, with a mild lean toward early speed. That profile benefits OLYMPIO'S JEWEL, listed at 4-1. Meanwhile, the 5-2 program favorite is NAUTICAL RULE, who also drops to a new low while running for the first time in four and a half months. His runner-up finish in May is good enough, but that race was at Hollywood and neither start at Santa Anita was very good. WAAFI, the 3-1 second choice, finished second in back-to-back races at this level at Del Mar, then was overmatched last time. It is true he is only 1-for-16, but he finished second in both recent races at this level. DON'T FORGET MUQ finished in front of the top choice when they met in May. The bottom line is this race is a four-deep affair. FIERY REBEL has the highest last-race figure (an 81 Beyer on dirt); the number was validated when runner-up Bubsy returned to win. FIERY REBEL may or may not hold form on synthetic, but he ran fast and probably is a throw-in on a back-up ticket.

Race 4, second leg

RINGOLEVIO is the 5-2 favorite in this maiden-25 route, and some bettors will consider him a potential single. He needed his comeback race, an eighth-place finish in a fast maiden-50 that was his first start since January. RINGOLEVIO was injured in training last winter at Santa Anita following a big runner-up finish in a maiden-75, and it remains to be seen how much the injury affected his ability. The gut feeling is he has a good one left in him. After the favorite, the pickings are slim. ALLABOUTTHECAPITAL drops to the bottom, while stretching out for the first time. If he can run at all, he will show it in this bottom-level affair. However, when Bob Baffert drops expensive horses ($360k in this case) to the basement, it usually is a sign of surrender. And it often means they simply cannot run. FORTUNATE VICTORY is 0-for-23, but he has a good runner-up comeback under his belt, and he will rally late. PRIZE PLAY returns from a two-month break for trainer Mandy McKaughan. She nearly scored Wednesday with 29-1 longshot comebacker Double Dip. PRIZE PLAY is 9-2 on the line, and has run races that put him in the hunt. Big jockey change to Joel Rosario.

Race 5, third leg

Two-for-two on the downhill, 5-2 favorite SILENT STALK drops from N2X allowance into a $32k claimer. She chased tough fractions in two starts at Del Mar, but the splits figure to be quite bit a softer in this spot. In fact, SILENT STALK could make front and lead gate to wire. AWESOME FEAT has not raced since December, but trainer Peter Miller can get layoff horses ready to fire. 'FEAT won her only turf sprint (at Hollywood) before she was sidelined. PLAY NINE improved many lengths first off the claim by John Sadler, winning a $25k main-track claimer for 3-year-old fillies with a big number. If she transfers that form to grass, while facing older, and shortening to a sprint, she could win again. Some might anticipate a "bounce," but the way John Sadler's horses have been firing this season you wouldn't want to bet against him. WELKEN was mistakenly overlooked when this handicapping analysis originally was filed early this week. The truth is, she fits perfect with these. Sprinting has never been her deal, but she has shown enough speed in route races to suggest the downhill may be just right. WELKEN is the 7-2 second choice in the program, and she belongs. The four on the also-eligible list will stay on the program. Barring a scratch in the body of the race, the AE's are likely to come out.

Race 6, fourth leg

This race is simple, and pick-six bettors may only need to use the two favorites. They are second-time starters VIA VERDE, the 9-5 favorite, and MACIAS, 5-2 second choice. Both showed much promise in their debut; either can win. VIA VERDE had the misfortune in his debut of hooking one of the most impressive 2-year-old maiden winners of Del Mar (Indian Firewater). VIA VERDE chased the fast pace, then tired to second while finishing two lengths clear of third. It was a super debut by the Sadler trainee, and with a race under his belt he can only move forward. The lone knock is the inside draw, but he is quick enough to establish position. MACIAS ran super his only start. He broke slow from the rail, uncorked a good move through the turn and rallied into second in midstretch, then tired to third. It was a good race, he goes inside to outside, takes off blinkers, and should move up a ton. If both favorites get beat, this ticket is dead.

Race 7, fifth leg

COATCHECK GIRL is the 3-1 favorite and another potential single. She might have been slightly outclassed last time in a strong N1X that set up wrong. She moved too early, opened up, and then died home to finish third behind one-two finishers that rallied from seventh and fifth, respectively. It was a disappointing finish for bettors who took 2-1, but her effort was just as good as the race she won 13 days earlier. Freshened five weeks, dropping in class, and the fastest filly in the field, she should win by running back to her huge Aug. 14 score. The 7-2 second choice is THERE GOES GEE GEE. She is 3-for-3 on grass, all three wins were two-turn claiming races for 3-year-old fillies similar to this. Toss out her last-start debacle at Fairplex Park. This is where she belongs. MY SPANISH FLING looms the upsetter. She wired easy maiden-25s at the Fair, and is a sharp horse moving up and trying something new. She is a 10-1. Her presence helps insure a swift pace for her uncoupled stablemate. That is late-runner GRANDPA'S LEGACY at 8-1. The bottom line is that COATCHECK GIRL is in the right spot.

Race 8, sixth leg

Another "spread" race in a difficult sequence. HEAVENS A RAGING split the field in a promising debut against special-weight Calbreds. She drops in for a tag, and can improve with a race under her belt. But several others also have a look including WORD ASSOCIATION. The latter did not have a legitimate excuse when she finished third as the 3-10 favorite across town. But she drops in for a tag for the first time, and tries a rider switch to Gomez. The knock is she has a touch of "hang." DUCK RIVER worked fast since a decent third-place debut. Blinkers are on, the class hike signals optimism. SANDY CHEEKS is a 12-1 first-time starter with positive workout reports from the clocker for Handicapper's Report. BRIANNA MARIE drops out of a highly rated special-weight at Del Mar. The fourth-place finisher from that race (Judge Joan) returned to win the Barretts Debutante; the winner (Miss Georgie Girl) will be one of the favorites Saturday in the California Cup Juvenile Fillies.