10/14/2009 11:00PM

Pick six: Updated analysis for Oct. 16


Race 3, first leg

Little need to go deep in the first leg of the Pick Six in a race that appears a two-horse contest between RAIDING PARTY and SILENT STALK....Although SILENT STALK seems to have a tactical advantage of being the controlling speed, RAIDING PARTY is the superior filly, based on current form. She has a win and a second in two starts off the claim for trainer Mike Mitchell, and is well suited to the cutback in distance from a mile to six and a half furlongs. SILENT STALK could very well open up a clear lead, but she doesn't seem as sharp as she was in the spring, which was apparent in her last race when she weakened to second after heading into the stretch, seemingly home free on the lead. So the inclination is to single RAIDING PARTY on a primary ticket, and go two-deep with SILENT STALK on a smaller backup ticket that would use fewer horses in subsequent races. Of the others, PRECIOUS UNION is the most appealing, dropping in for a tag for the first time after largely struggling vs. entry-level allowance runners.

Race 4, second leg

The picture doesn't appear as clear in the second leg of the Pick Six. The choice is STEVIE'S AFLEET, but YOU CAN DREAM and FLYINGINFORMATION also merit play on tickets. STEVIE'S AFLEET has underachieved in recent starts, but joins the Sadler barn off the claim and should improve. She has trained forwardly for him, and he encouragingly moves her up in class even after keeping her out of action for a month and a half. YOU CAN DREAM, meanwhile, makes her first start for a tag after two consecutive on-the-board finishes in straight maiden races. Baffert has been hot this meet, but the maiden special to maiden claiming drop is not a high-percentage move for him (2 for his last 24). Blinkers off and sharp works. Lastly, there is FLYINGINFORMATION, who ran well first time off the claim for Mitchell, finishing an even third at this class level behind a pair of next-out winners. The rest appear a cut below.

Race 5, third leg

Originally a field of 10, it is now a 9-horse field following the scratch of number 5, STORM'N MARISA. A two-deep ticket seems best used, focusing on GLORY FOREVER and KIMMYV. The former, twice unplaced in straight maiden races at Del Mar, looks a prime wake-up candidate with the plunge into a maiden $25,000 claimer. She was well bet in her first two starts, and her works, both before and since her last race, hint she has more talent than what she has shown to date. KIMMYV, meanwhile, shows a steady and encouraging worktab for trainer Bob Baffert and is by a quality sire in El Corredor. If anyone steps up and beats GLORY FOREVER, it would likely be her.

Race 6, fourth leg

This $50,000 claimer, like most claiming races on the grass, seems relatively evenly matched. But it is hard to go too deep in a six-horse field, knowing larger fields lie ahead. The preference is to go two-deep, using top selection SARTORIAL, who just missed in a Sept. 6 optional-claiming race at Del Mar, and OUR PARTNER, who is returned to his best surface, turf, where he has been first or second in 9 of 14 starts. Both horses have shown the potential to run Beyer Speed Figures in the low to mid 90s.

Race 7, fifth leg

Time to spread. 5-2 program choice SPEEDIN EXCESS and 7-2 second choice DANI REESE fit but hardly stand out. In fact, they would rank as the fourth and fifth selections, respectively. Rather, the preferred horses are, in order, STUNNINGLY, TORO BONITO and DANCING ERIN, though by narrow margins. An abundance of speed should set up the rally of STUNNINGLY, who has never been worse than third in four starts on synthetic tracks. Last time she fell just a length and a quarter short of Supermodel, a filly who repeated against N2X allowance competition at Del Mar. Comebacking TORO BONITO, absent since February, exits three consecutive graded stakes, and has been training lights out for Baffert in preparation for her return. And the speedy DANCING ERIN has been first or second in three straight, including last time out when the runner-up in a small stakes race at Fairplex. Use all five of the horses mentioned above on a primary ticket, while limiting STUNNINGLY, TORO BONITO and DANCING ERIN to a backup ticket.

Race 8, sixth and final leg

GOOD GUY, a gelding who couldn't finish among the top 3 in first two races at Elko, of all places, is the 9-5 favorite. That should tell handicappers all they need to know about the lack of quality in this maiden $25,000 claimer. 4-1 third choice DELTAMAX is narrowly preferred, coming off a much-improved second at Fairplex in which he raced wide from start to finish. Problem is, he hasn't done much on synthetic tracks. LOUIE TRE is another must use on a deep ticket, finishing a troubled third at Fairplex recently when racing a distance less than his best. That comeback race should set him up for a better effort. GOOD GUY, though a probable underlay, also merits use in the Pick Six, starting for red-hot connections and coming off a runner-up finish at Fairplex, albeit with a favorable trip.