10/24/2016 1:36PM

Pick-six carryover makes Thursday card worth playing


ARCADIA, Calif. – Even if the racing is unremarkable Thursday at Santa Anita, a generous pick-six carryover of $69,959 provides incentive to dive in.

The sequence begins and ends with bottom-of-the-barrel transparency. Races 3 and 8 are $20,000 maiden-claiming races, the circuit’s most predictable class level. In between is a virtual minefield – a starter-allowance route for 2-year-olds, a maiden special weight on turf, a $12,500 claimer for non-winners of two, and a $40,000 claiming turf mile.

The card is short on quality and long on potential for bettors able to string together six in a row. New money in the pool should approach $300,000, based on the formula of dividing carryover by takeout rate ($69,959 divided by 0.2368 = $295,434).

Race 3

Maiden $20,000 routes for older males in Southern California require minimal handicapping imagination – the last 11 races at the level were taken by one of the top two betting choices, including seven favorites. Woodstock Memory and Resistanceisfutile, who is stretching out, have the top Beyer Speed Figures. Sure Luck is quick enough to set the pace.

Race 4

Juvenile fillies race one mile. Only six were entered, but the starter allowance is tough. Perfect Cocktail won a maiden $30,000 claiming route last out; It’s Not Easy is the only other horse in the field with established route form. Holey Mosey faced good company and is a must-use, while Resky Business has a running style and pedigree for two turns. The “all” button could come into play.

Race 5

Lady Pamela is a potential single in this turf route for maiden fillies and mares. The well-bred filly (by Tapit and produced by Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Life Is Sweet) finished second last out in her first try around two turns.

Although the switch to turf was necessary because a maiden special weight race on dirt did not fill, the footing should be fine for Lady Pamela. Tapit progeny typically handle turf, and her dam won a maiden turf race by nine lengths, a first-level turf allowance by more than two, and placed twice in turf stakes.

Contenders also include Sugary, third in a productive race (two next-out winners, and another won two starts later); second-time starter Lauren’s Export; and also-eligible front-runner Eileen’s Girl.

Race 6

This is a hopelessly difficult route for fillies and mares, $12,500 claiming, non-winners of two. Lob City is in form, and her trainer, Gary Sherlock, has won with three of his last four starters. Meadow Blossom stretches out and could set the pace. Autumn Twilight returns from a 14-month layoff and is in for a tag for the first time. With 10 entered, “all” is an expensive proposition.

Race 7

Flamingo Lane drops from a second-level allowance to $35,000-$40,000 claiming in this one-mile turf race for fillies and mares. The best horse in the field, she is trained by meet leader Peter Miller. Molly’s Honor finished second last out in a turf sprint. Loveintheshadows and Girl Downstairs figure.

Race 8

Favorites have won 46 percent of the maiden $20,000 sprints for fillies and mares this year in Southern California. The 21-for-45 stat bodes well for leading contenders If You Believe and Really a Gem.