09/07/2015 12:38PM

Mohawk: Tuesday 9/8 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

4,5,6/1,4,5,6/4/1,3,5 = $36

 

LATE PICK 4: 5,8/4,5,6/4,5/9 = $12

MEET STATS: 285 - 926 / $1590.60 BEST BETS: 39 - 83 / $128.80 SPOT PLAYS: 11 - 80 / $86.80

Best Bet: IDOLE DUHARAS (11th)

Spot Play: ROSIES POCKETS (5th)

Race 1

(1) TOUGH AFFAIR showed little from the outside vs. a tough winner that came back to win a Grand Circuit stake in her next start. She should be much better here vs. Grassroots foes starting from the outside. (4) MOONLIGHT COCKTAIL showed marked improvement last time when dropped out of OSS Gold company and looks like one of the main contenders here. (2) TALA SEELSTER has been great at grabbing minor shares and should be on the ticket here.

Race 2

(3) MARIANA has won 1/2 her starts and hit the exacta in every one of them, improving her speed along the way. She looks best here. (1) MAJESTIC PRESENCE is capable of laying down some testing fractions for her opposition to overcome if she stays flat, which seems like a big if. (2) MYRETIREMENTTICKET raced in open company last time, showing little. Racing in a restricted race vs. her own sex gives her a better chance to share here.

Race 3

(4) MAGICAL STEPH has been solid all summer and has a tactical turn of speed that her foes here likely can't match; top call. (7) HAILEYSGONEDANCING was a sharp winner at long odds two back then took a shuffle in a race where the outer flow just kept coming. She's in with a good shot here. (5) DAYLINER looks best of the rest to complete the tri.

Race 4

(6) MYSTIC DANCE is a full-sister to several winners including this year's Mistletoe Shalee winner Moonlit Dance. She showed enough in her lone qualifier to get top call here. (5) LADY MARINA closed well against a tough winner last week and is the one to beat. (4) DANISH N COFFEE has faced mostly stakes company but has also failed once in this class and is sure to be overbet picking up Filion. Keep on pick 4 tickets but beware a very short price in the win pool.

Race 5

(7) ROSIES POCKETS faced much better last time and wasn't disgraced. Vanderkemp may try to take this one right down the road. (1) WICHITA JAZZ was a strong 2nd last time but has now missed a week and the rail may not be the best post for her. (5) MATZA MAN debuts vs. older but can contend here right away.

Race 6

(4) LISEBERG has reeled off two easy front-stepping wins and is the one the one to chase down late here. (2) MALIA was a strong 2nd to a winner that was dropping out of stakes last week and looks like the only other contender. (9) SMASH HIT is another that is capable but seems to have serious gait issues.

Race 7

(5) LIVE AND LEARN had plenty of pace late last week but was pushed wide as others that were covered up the entire mile slipped off the rail as some of the leaders faded. He's got a good shot here if he can latch onto some decent cover. (1) B N BAD was pressing a quick pace in the same race and just failed to hold on. He would be no surprise here. (3) JUSTALITTLELUCK was also involved in the destructive pace of that race and should get a better trip here and contend for the win.

Race 8

(5) POWERFUL GLARE dropped out of OSS Gold company last week and won as expected. He faces a group with few real contenders and should be tough again. (8) I WANT KANDY had faced one of the best in the division the past two starts and should do much better back in against Grassroots rivals. (7) TRAVIATA comes off two solid wins but the top two are tougher than what she has faced.

Race 9

(5) IM A GIFT - the trotting-bred pacer - had a horrible trip last time from the 10-hole and still managed to finish 4th. He can beat this group with a decent steer although there is no guarantee that is forthcoming; demand a price. (6) SABINE PASS was nailed right on the wire by an improving colt and he should be right there again vs. these. (4) WILDCAT HILTON was a solid 3rd in his first race on the big circuit, retains Jamieson and can improve.

Race 10

(4) FREE SHOW has faced and beaten the best company and forms half of a potent 1-2 punch here for trainer Menary along with (5) MANIANA. The latter was an impressive winner last week and could threaten the choice here who has missed some time. (6) BETTY HILL looks best of the rest but is more likely for a minor award.

Race 11

(9) IDOLE DUHARAS was a sharp winner of two straight then claimed by Puddy. It appears only some kind of a crazy pace duel could get him beat here. (3) WHO DEY is always closing for a good share but comes off a vet scratch; mixed signals. (7) VAL AMERICA reversed tactics last time but couldn't keep up with the choice. Look for him to be closing here and passing horses late. (5) POKER HAT is usually very tough in this class but the miscue last week is concerning. (1) SWEET COLT OF MINE should sit a good following trip here and take a share.

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