09/28/2015 3:14PM

Mohawk: Tuesday 9/29 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


1,2,4,5 / 4,6 / 4,5,6,9,10 /3 = $40


LATE PICK 4: 3 / 1,6,9 / 1,3,4,7 / 2,6,8 = $36

MEET STATS: 344 - 1098/ $1920.90  BEST BETS: 48 - 98 / $155.30

SPOT PLAYS: 14 - 94 / $154.30

Best Bet: MUSCLE BABY DOLL  (3rd)

Spot Play: THE ROCK  (4th)

Race 1

(1) TONY SOPRANO faced the best in the division in the Wellwood and wasn’t disgraced. He will be tough to beat here if he stays flat. (5) DREAMLINER was third in a Grand Circuit race when last seen and followed that up with a good qualifier. He looks like he is getting faster now; contender. (7) P L JERICO produced by far his best effort last week and should be passing many of these late if he behaves.

Race 2

(1) MIDNIGHT TOKER was called to win here last week but was too far back early to have a chance. He closed a lot of ground and the improved post and return in a week gives him a shot at this OSS Gold purse. (7) V FOR VICTORY was smartly driven to the front in a slow third quarter and easily drove away from the field last week. He is improving at the right time. (2) WILL TAKE CHARGE has faced better and the drop back to sires stakes competition gives him a chance to break his maiden here.

Race 3

(3) MUSCLE BABY DOLL was aggressively driven last time vs. the best sophomore trotting filly on the continent and paid the price late due to the taxing fractions. There is no Mission Brief in here and this filly should get back on track with a victory. (1) SECOND SISTER had some sneaky-good form vs. males the past two and is a good bet to complete this exacta. (6) ALL THAT SPARKLES rode a soft first half to a win last week but will have no such luxuries here.

Race 4

(2) THE ROCK goes for a new barn and picks up a top catch driver while dropping into a claimer; top call. (1) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE faces easier here and must be considered for early pick 4 tickets. (4) SPORTS VISION broke early in his first race off the claim last time and could make amends here.

Race 5

(6) DEWY DON’T CHEAT followed along last time and was victimized by a slow pace set by the winner. Zeron will get more aggressive with $70K on the line here and this one can turn the table. (4) DUNVEGAN DON took a third-quarter breather and rode it to victory over the choice. He has been racing well and is the one to beat. (7) NOFEAR BLUE CHIP has been first-over in several starts and hung on well in most of them. If he could grab some cover he could upset the top two.

Race 6  

(9) THINK AGAIN left hard for the front last time then was shuffled mid-race, but still only beaten less than two lengths in a decent effort. There doesn’t appear to be much to beat here; he may finally get the job done. (5) STATE NEWS was first up at the worst time – as the leader was accelerating the pace – and was easily repelled. He can do better with an improved trip. (10) FULL TIME GIG made two moves vs. a strong debut winner and is another long-time maiden in with a shot in this weak field.

Race 7

(3) ELEGANT SERENITY has been one of the best fillies in her division all year and getting back to sires stakes competition should make her very tough here. (6) DANIELLE HALL has gotten back on track with several improved efforts after a tough start to the season and should be right there vs. these. (2) MEADOW SEELSTER was entered in the Grassroots Final on Saturday and if she goes here she’ll be competitive, too.

Race 8

(9) NEW YORK NIGHTMARE was hard-driven to victory last time now gets re-classified in a spot where he should be tough; call to repeat. (1) PIER HO TEMPTATION was a big winner in a conditioned claimer last time and could get a great trip in the choice’s pocket. (6) ANTAR PHIL drops into a claimer for the first time in a while and should be kept on late pick 4 tickets.

Race 9

(7) GIRL DRAMA always seems to race well in claimers and only needs to be within striking distance turning home to seal the deal with her good late kick. (3) DICKS SECRET came off a short break and closed well from farther back than the choice last time. He is capable of leaving much better which makes him dangerous here. (1) BLUSH AND CRUSH won with an amateur driver last time after stealing a very slow opening half. She’s been in good form and the inside post only helps.

Race 10

(2) CHOSEN HOMBRE closes quickly every week and now gets a slight class drop and much-improved post; top call. (8) REB THE RAIDER wasn’t far back in his return to this circuit and should be put into this race much earlier. (6) MACH OF BALLYKEEL raced tough from the 10-hole last time and could break the 2015 goose egg here. (1) REAL ROCKER makes a class drop and Filion chose him over the one above. He still needs to show a lot more. (9) VITAL SIGN will be closing late and should pick up a check here.

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