09/21/2015 11:25AM

Mohawk: Tuesday 9/22 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

4/1,3,6/3/6,7,8,9 = $12

 

LATE PICK 4: 6,7,8,9/3,5/2,4,6,9/9 = $32

MEET STATS: 328 - 1042 / $1783.30 BEST BETS: 45 - 93 / $146.30

SPOT PLAYS: 12 - 89 / $92.30

Best Bet: COMPANY MAN (6th)

Spot Play: PUT YOUR BAD ON (4th)

Race 1

(7) CRAZY BLUE was closing fast last week vs. a better NW2L field and looks best here in his 2nd try at this class. (5) NOBLE POWER was also coming on late in the same race and should be able to get closer in this field than his typical mid-pack finish. (8) WHOSGOINGTOCATCHUS broke her maiden impressively in his 28th try but that was against a very weak group and she is more likely to grab a minor award with the step up in class.

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Race 2

(7) IDOLE DUHARAS has reeled off three straight easy wins now goes first off the claim for leading trainer Moreau. There's other speed in here but he doesn't need to be on top early to succeed. (4) VAL AMERICA always paces his race but needs a pace collapse to get there - which is possible here. (2) TWANG TWANG has had two adventurous trips after setting a new life's mark off the claim on August 13. He should get a better trip and result here.

Race 3

(5) NOCTURNAL BLUE CHIP looked like he was going to take down a big chalk until very late in the mile last week. That one isn't in here; this colt looks best of this group. (6) NEW TALENT closed quickly to get up for 2nd at long odds in a Grand Circuit event last time and seems to be improving rapidly. (7) ARSENIC has reeled off three straight conditioned wins and isn't without a chance but will have to be faster here.

Race 4

(4) PUT YOUR BAD ON changes barns and drivers for this start vs. a field where she looks like a contender anyway; 23rd time's the charm? (1) ENDLESS LEGACY lost to a filly last time who came back to win a Grassroots Semi-Final. She is a top contender here. (9) SPECIALCELEBRATION has good speed when she behaves. If she stays flat she should be prominent throughout.

Race 5

(1) CABERTOSS takes a class drop after racing decently one level higher. He looks as good as any in this wide-open leg of the early pick 4. (3) MY KID SISTER broke last time but raced against some good ones in quick miles two and three back. She should be right there vs. these if she stays flat and will likely offer a square price. (6) AGGRESSIVE set some insane splits two back and predictably tired then broke early last week. If he behaves, Christoforou will likely ration out his speed better making him a contender.

Race 6

(3) COMPANY MAN looked live but was on dead cover in an accelerating back 1/2 last week. J Mac will likely roll him early here. (7) DERBY DYLAN was hung the mile and still only fell 3 1/2 lengths short last time. A better trip puts him right there. (8) TENDTOWIN was motoring at the end of his mile last week but may find it difficult to get the trip he needs starting from out there.

Race 7

(6) MYSTERY BET vaulted up late last week to get up right on the wire. A similar pace scenario is expected here; call to repeat. (9) GRANA PADANNO went a tough first up trip and was just nailed by the choice. He is better racing on the lead or from the pocket. (8) SECOND SISTER left for position, got shuffled then came on again late in the same dash as the two above. There is very little separating the top three here.

Race 8

(3) SEMI AUTOMATIC is one we've had our eye on since his first baby race. He comes off a freshening for a trainer that has them ready to roll in these situations; call to upset. (5) BETTING LINE is the obvious choice and will be a low price but he looked a bit wobbly winning the Champlain and could be ripe for the picking here. (6) NVESTMENT BLUECHIP parlayed a perfect pocket trip into a new life's mark in the Champlain but is unlikely to get the same dreamy trip here.

Race 9

(2) CREAMPUFF MACDADDY won in this class two back at huge odds then tried to chase down a big chalk first up with no success last time. He fits this class well will be tough here. (4) LITTLE RED CHEV was a runaway early last time and broke trying to take the last turn. A drop in class gives her a chance to take these all the way. (9) CHINA PEARLS takes a big class plunge for her 3rd start of the year and is in with a shot if she gets an alert start.

Race 10

(9) THINK AGAIN closed well into a quickening pace last time to nab second at long odds. He faces a very weak group here and may try to go right down the road. (4) SOULD SACRIFICE showed some late life last time and the winner of that race came back to repeat vs. better. He should improve in this 2nd start back from a break. (5) BADDATEEN has been getting minor shares out of town and should be able to grab a piece of this. (1) SPORTS COLOGNE has a poor record but can follow along and close late for a share here. (3) SILVERADO had fast last 1/4's in both starts and that makes him a possible contender in a field where there are few positives in the chart lines.

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