09/19/2016 12:56PM

Mohawk: Tuesday 9/20 Analysis

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Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

 

PICK 5: 3,4,5/3,7,8,9/1,6,10/1,4,6,8/5 = $28.80

EARLY PICK 4: 1,4,6,8/5/2,3,5/5,7 = $24

LATE PICK 4: 5,7/2,3,7,8/4,6,7/7,10 = $48

MEET STATS: 350 - 1048 / $1806.70  BEST BETS: 57 - 96 / $179.40

SPOT PLAYS: 20 - 96 / $119.10

Best Bet: WILL TAKE CHARGE (5th)

Spot Play: LAURA HILL (4th)

Race 1

(3) VELOCITY HEADLIGHT got a test drive from Filion last week when hung the route now he enters top trainer Moreau's barn. This conditioned field isn't much tougher than the claimers he faced then; top call. (4) ST LADS LOTTO faces easier here and he should get put into action earlier. He rates highly in this field. (5) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE also drops and he will likely be sent off the gate for a spot near the front from his improved post; using. (6) SPORTS LIGHTNING should be passing many of these late and he is a good one to use on the lower exotics rungs.

Race 2

(9) JANDERSON has won three OSS Golds with the past four times his regular pilot drove and he returns here. I'll give him a slight nod in a tricky race where it is difficult to gauge intent. (8) MISTER MUSCLE was a sharp maiden-breaker last week and if he can duplicate the final 1/4 speed that he unleashed in that win, he will be right there again. (7) ROSE RUN SPEEDSTER is an obvious contender on paper but after missing 39 days this race could serve as more of a prep for an upcoming sires stake. (3) NOBLE PRIZE drops from Grand Circuit company and is another that could win this if he is close enough to the leaders turning for home.

Race 3

(6) QUADRANGLE tried in vain to close into the fastest 1/4 of the race in his debut but he did still manage to pass horses. He can beat these with a more aggressive steer. (1) SOUTHWIND TESLA takes a massive class dive here and has to be considered for Pick 5 tickets. (10) LADY GREY showed dramatic improvement last week and she can contend here if she stays flat again despite the poor post. (4) MAGIC MADDY should get a much better trip here and stick around for a share.

Race 4

(2) LAURA HILL finished third in her debut despite being hung out the entire way. She looks like one of few contenders in this group and she should get a much better trip. (4) TEARFUL OF HAPPY showed some determination late in her most recent start and she looks like the main threat to the choice here. (6) CONNIE MACH qualified quickly off a break against some tough colts; consider.  (8) SKY GIRL improved for Filion last time and she should be able to close and make the ticket here.

Race 5

(5) WILL TAKE CHARGE faces much easier company here and he should take this group if he is put into the race early enough. (6) CLASSIC VENTURE blew a big lead last week but his sharp form and excellent tactical speed should be respected here. (9) NEILS GOLDEN GIRL can be much closer if she is sent for the front leaving the gate this time, but that's not easy to predict from this post. (4) DUNVEGAN DON is winless so far this year but his form is improving and he should take a share here.

Race 6

(3) MERCHANDISER was an easy winner last time he tried this class and he should be aggressive early vs. these; top call. (5) HONOR ABOVE ALL won his last despite missing time and with the improvement he has been showing he should contend here. (2) BATOUTAHILL blew up before the start as even-money chalk last week. He can rebound here from a good post if he stays trotting. (4) MOONLIGHT COCKTAIL wired slightly easier from the 10-hole at a huge price now faces tougher but should take at least a share here starting from a good post.

Race 7

(7) D M REACHER couldn't fish out any cover last week and he backed up a bit late as a result. A better trip and/or more aggressive steer gets it done vs these. (5) EAST END closed well without threatening the top three in his debut for Moreau. It makes sense to expect improvement here. (8) SOUTHWIND SAVAGE moves to the outside here but he can take a share vs. this group passing most of them late. (3) CENTURY CHURCHILL has raced well in his last couple but his futility record is nothing to get excited about; minor share predicted.

Race 8

(2) TYMAL ILLBETHERE was surprisingly heavily-bet from the 10-hole last time and failed in a first-over bid. The price goes up here and she could get sent off the gate this time. (8) WAY OUTTA HERE should be right there if he can repeat his effort from last week, but he has frequent gait issues which make him risky. (7) CLASS ME NICE could improve in his second start back from a break. Notice his 15 slices in the last 48 starts. (3) POINTE OF INQUIRY should show more early speed this time which could make her the one to chase down late.

Race 9

(6) SKY GUY flew home to win his latest and he should get a good pace setup here; call to repeat. (4) VEROI BAYAMA was a sharp winner in good time last time he raced in a claimer; using. (7) TWIN B SHADOW was a sharp winner first off the claim last time and he will likely try to go down the road here. (3) SIERRA MADRE can share here with the drop into a claimer.

Race 10

(10) SAUBLE ASHLEY has been on a great roll out of town and she looks best here despite the post. (7) DANISH N COFFEE passed all but one of her rivals in the final 1/4 last week. She could beat these with a better trip. (3) SPARKLE showed some promise earlier in her career. She's worth a look for the exotics coming off a rest. (4) THATGIRLISONFIRE is likely to take a minor award off a following trip. (2) COLLECTIVE WISDOM should improve enough adding Lasix here to make the High 5 ticket.

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