08/31/2015 12:52PM

Mohawk: Tuesday 9/1 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

3,5,6,10/8/1,6,8,9/3,7,9 = $48

 

LATE PICK 4: 6,7,9/1,5.9/1,2,5,7,9/4 = $45

MEET STATS: 263 - 869 / $1482.70 BEST BETS: 36 - 78 / $118.40

SPOT PLAYS: 10 - 75 / $79.60

Best Bet: PARTY IN ROME (5th)

Spot Play: IDOLE DUHARAS (10th)

Race 1

(9) DUNVEGAN DON has really improved in his last two starts culminating in a win in a $70K OSS Gold dash. He should be able to beat these if sent for position early by McNair. (7) THEE DESPERADO is unbeaten but has now missed three weeks and will likely have trouble with the choice if that one brings his A game for this $14K purse. (2) MANOFMANYIMAGES closed well last time out and should get a good following trip here again and make the ticket.

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Race 2

(6) MANIANA has faced much better recently and picked up checks every week. She looks best here and should break her maiden. (3) LADY MARINA closed well for third in a rapid mile in her debut and can build on that with an even better showing here. (1) BLUEBERRY HILL chased a sharp winner around the track last week and couldn't close on her but retains Filion and should be prominent on or near the pace.

Race 3

(7) CRAZY BLUE picked up Filion and a predictable maiden win last time out. He can double up here if he avoids gait issues that he has had in the past. (1) SECRET MISSY was much better last week, challenging first up and only tiring late. She should be a factor here. (4) STRIKINGLYIMPRESIVE backed through the field as chalk in the third 1/4 last week when something obviously went amiss. She can rebound here if all is well.

Race 4

(2) ROSY OUTLOOK left hard from an outer post then took a big mid-race shuffle due to lead changes. She closed well again for third and should trip better here; top call. (5) TRILIFE owns a 1:53 2/5 win off a pocket trip in July and if that trip presents itself here she would be very tough late.  (10) DIVAS IMAGE is obviously one of the best fillies in the race but may have too much to do late starting from out there.

Race 5

(8) PARTY IN ROME left hard last week, took a bit of a shuffle then slipped off the rail before the 3/4 pole and easily vaulted past the leaders. She looked so good in doing so that we'll make her our Best Bet and early pick 4 single. (9) THIS DAY FORWARD showed great improvement in speed last week and should make the ticket here if positioned a bit closer turning home. (6) BAD IN PARADISE set a reasonable pace but couldn't hold on. She will have plenty of trouble with the choice here likely.

Race 6

(8) GOOD FRIDAY THREE looked very promising early in the summer but has had a bit of a rough ride lately. Here he drops back in class a bit and picks up Waples which signals an aggressive drive. He can get back on track here. (6) JUSTALITTLELUCK pressured some solid splits first-over and got up late for a new life's mark; using. (9) I SCOOT SAM has had trouble closing into rapid miles the past two starts and shouldn't be underestimated here. (1) LIVE AND LEARN has discovered some excellent closing power the last two starts and a repeat isn't out of the question here.

Race 7

(7) NOONE TO DEPEND ON parlayed a sharp qualifier with an easy win last week when she found room in the lane when loaded with pace and drew off. She can double up here. (9) P L JASMINE had a long trip from the 10-hole yet still was only beaten three lengths. She's in with a good shot here. (3) SPORTS EXPERT made a big move to sweep by the field late and will be passing horses late here.

Race 8

(7) ST LADS SMOKIN HOT stayed in last week but did have good late pace. She is one of many that can win this Grassroots affair. (9) BUTTERMILK HANOVER led to the lane and tired as a wildly overbet choice last week. She will likely revert to a closing style here which works better for her. (6) MAYHEM SEELSTER provided cover for a sharp winner last time and can't be discounted here.

Race 9

(9) NATES BUCKY was confidently driven last week while making several moves and came up just short. A slightly better trip gets it done here. (1) COLONYS BEST is likely better than his record suggests and could wake up here with a high placing. (5) SABINE PASS looked like a winner hallway down the lane last time but hung a bit late which seems to be common with him.

Race 10

The pace scenario in this race has the look of one that will collapse late so we'll go with (2) IDOLE DUHARAS on top. Following on the heels of a lifetime-best score, he is likely to take on a stalking position early here. (5) LITTLE QUICK could slip by them all late if they really go at it early. (7) GENESSEE has won two straight off the claim while facing zero pace pressure. That likely changes here. (9) TWANG TWANG ripped off a huge mile off the claim two back then faced better and was victim of a pace battle. He adds to the early pace scenario.

Race 11

(4) STONEBRIDGE PEARL has only faced much better so far in her young career and looks solid here. (8) IM IN LUV showed marked improvement winning last time and the Carl Jamieson barn has been heating up; beware. (6) GLORIOUS DELIGHT faced a very good filly last time and could do no better than a distant 2nd. She figures for part of this. (5) MISS PRINT rebounded with a good effort last time after breaking two back. Henry will likely lay closer with this filly tonight. (1) DANCIN IN THE NUDE has good tactical speed and should sit a nice trip and grab a share here.

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