08/17/2015 12:09PM

Mohawk: Tuesday 8/18 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

1,3,9/1,5,8/2,3,7,8/1 = $36

 

LATE PICK 4: 1,2,3/1,3,4,6,8/2,3/6 = $30

MEET STATS: 227 - 759 / $1311.30 BEST BETS: 32 - 68 / $107.50

SPOT PLAYS: 8 - 66 / $66.90

Best Bet: WAZZUP WAZZUP (3rd)

Spot Play: VAL AMERICA (6th)

Race 1

(4) AMITYVILLE LINDY was competitive in the spring in the Tie Silk series then laid up. Trainer Bax didn't ask him for too much in his qualifier but it should be enough to have him ready vs. a questionable group of maidens; top call off the shelf. (8) STILLWATER has shown the speed to win this and ships in looking sharp. He's the one to beat. (1) P L ICABOD chased a fast pace in his season's debut then broke last time out before the start. He has an upset chance if he stays flat as many young Kadabras improve dramatically with little notice.

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Race 2

(2) KAMIKAZE LINDY was qualified twice by leading driver Filion who chose this one over another. I'm not a huge believer in 'driver choice' as a handicapping factor, but, Filion has been so hot at this meet it's hard to ignore here. (5) TRUMPETS has gone two solid overland trips to finish 2nd in her first two starts and gets a good spot on the gate from which to dictate her own fate early. She's the one to fend off. (8) MY WAY OR THE HIGHWAY was gifted some very soft fractions last time but couldn't hold off the pocket-sitter. She is starting to get the look of a professional maiden.

Race 3

(3) WAZZUP WAZZUP, The King of the Drop and Pop, takes a massive class plunge here. Enough said; top call. (7) ROCK ME AMASTREOS should be able to clear early here but will likely come under early assault from the choice. He could hang around for a good share regardless. (4) URBANITE HANOVER seemed to have trouble catching his cover last week and only got up very late for 2nd after the race winner blew by him down the lane. Minor share predicted.

Race 4

(9) I SCOOT SAM paced his own back 1/2 in :53 3/5 last week and looks solid here vs. a mixed bag of company. He will likely be heavily-bet and needs to pass most of the field to get the job done. We'll use him in the pick 4 but his racing style makes him hard to single. (3) DERBY DYLAN was claimed out of a winning effort at Grand River last Wednesday by conditioner Johnson who does well with these types; using. (1) INTRIGUED INTENDED picks up white-hot Filion and has tactical speed which is often a lethal combo; using.

Race 5

(5) MASS RAIL powered home last time and was an unlucky loser to the pocket-sitter who parlayed a perfect trip and surged very late. This filly will be tough to beat here if she stays trotting. (1) MYLITTLESTARSHINE sat a perfect trip behind slow fractions and powered by late. She could get a similar dreamy trip here; beware. (8) ROSES IN THE RAIN blew up the tote board last week in a Grassroots event and her good late speed should be respected.

Race 6

(3) VAL AMERICA and several others were paced off their feet last week by a dominating winner that paced a huge mile for the class. This veteran still passed 1/2 the field late and should get a much better set-up here. (8) GENESSEE switched barns from a trainer with a 0% strike rate this year and was a winner immediately. He's sharp and will be tough here. (7) WHO DEY rode the inside and closed late to beat the choice who was on bad cover on the last turn. Throw this one on your early pick 4 tickets.

Race 7

To date, (1) RENEGADE MAGIC either wins or breaks stride. She looks tough here from the rail but consider the record so far: 8 starts, 4 wins, 4 breaks. (2) HURRICANE HAZEL has been sharp in her past 3 starts and displayed good closing speed in all of them. She's the one to fend off. (3) HAPE was on a good roll coming up to last week's start then self-destructed. She is another to consider for both early and late pick 4 tickets.

Race 8

(8) STORMONT KATE picked up Henry last week and fired off a career-best front end victory. If she can make front early again and get any breathers she will be tough to chase down. (1) MYSTERY BET didn't have his typical devastating late kick last time but could be better here coming back in a week. (3) MEADOW SEELSTER tired over a track that was killing speed all night last time. She could rebound here.

Race 9

(3) DR J HANOVER has qualified as fast as or faster than his rivals here have gone for purses; automatic play. (2) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP showed good late interest in his debut and should be much closer here. (5) ADRIAN HANOVER has been picking up minor shares regularly and that trend likely continues here.

Race 10

(6) GOODTIME MATT paced a mile over the 5/8ths oval at Scioto in his last start that would be good enough to win this. It is fair to assume that he can go faster over a bigger track. He will be tough to beat here. (1) NATES BUCKY lands in a field for his debut where he should be able to compete right away and take a good share. (9) SABINE PASS will be passing horses late for a share here. (10) CAJON LIGHTNING has been showing solid improvement and could better this placing if he can overcome this post. (8) JIMMY BE GOOD was a solid 2nd two back and could get a decent share here with a more alert start.

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