08/10/2015 12:38PM

Mohawk: Tuesday 8/11 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

5/2,3/1,3,4,6/2,5,6 = $24

 

LATE PICK 4: 2,4,6,8/6/1,2,3,6,8/4,8 =$40

MEET STATS: 217 - 713 / $1254.20 BEST BETS: 31 - 64 / $104.10

SPOT PLAYS: 8 - 64 / $66.90

Best Bet: COLONYS BEST (4th)

Spot Play: COCO LINDY (11th)

Race 1

Last time out (7) RECREATE duplicated the :28 1/5 kicker he produced in his July 24th qualifier but couldn't reach a strong winner late. He will graduate soon. (2) GEORGIES POCKETS led every step but the last couple most recently to suffer his first loss. He's the one to beat. (5) WINDSUN MISSILE went a long trip and still wasn't beaten far. He could upset with an easier trip.

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Race 2

(3) GONNA FLY miscued last time but two back led until very late. He's the only winner in the field; slight nod in a race where there are likely to be several breakers. (6) DYNAMIC EDGE has shown good early speed in his last two - a sign of improvement - and has an upset chance here from close range. (2) EYESEENOW was second to the choice despite breaking and losing a lot of ground now comes off a vet scratch-sick. He can contend if on his best behaviour.

Race 3

(6) MONEY MISSION was kept closer early and sent first-over to record his maiden-breaking win at Georgian last time. He can repeat if he leaves in the top 5 here. (7) MANOFMANYIMAGES went right down the road in his second start and looks like the main threat. (3) UNITED BI has a win and three thirds in four starts and can be raced on the lead or from off the pace. Respect his consistency and versatility.

Race 4

(5) COLONYS BEST closed nicely for third off cover in his first start of 2015 and should be prominent throughout here facing a weak group. (8) CAJON LIGHTNING has shown good closing power in both of his last two starts but must be put into the race earlier to contend for the win. (4) THUNDERSTRUCK won by the length of the Grand River stretch two back then raced decently in a quick Grassroots mile. He is obviously improving and can get a big share here.

Race 5

(2) THEE DESPERADO has overcome a break in his debut and interference last time to notch two wins so far; top call in a field with few contenders. (3) HOLIDAY BRO closed impressively late two back to win going away, then miscued in his next start. He's a contender here but obviously has gait issues. (9) JLS BAD MOON RISIN has suffered three consecutive narrow defeats. He'll have a tough time holding off the two above if they stay trotting.

Race 6

(3) DEWEYKEEPUMNWHY has improved dramatically the past month to the point where he may be up to this class rise; price play. (1) WHEELING N DEALIN - former 'O Brien Award winning two-year-old - makes his 2015 debut and looks ready based on his qualifiers; using. (6) BAGS FOR ALL returns from Hoosier Park in sharp form and shouldn't be ignored especially if he is offering a good price.

Race 7

(6) A MARCOU STORY has won impressively vaulting up off cover twice in a row since shipping north. If the flow in this race is decent he likely triples up. (2) ABSOLUTLY OFFICIAL has been hard driven twice straight and wasn't beaten far despite the tough trips. With post relief could easily get a better trip here which would make him very dangerous. (5) WILDCAT LIGHTNING gets Filion for the first time which has been a potent angle at this meet; beware.

Race 8

(6) THE LAND SHARK miscued in the pocket last time which cost him a chance for victory. He will likely be sent to the point early here daring his opponents to come get him; top call. (8) WASHINGTON is a half-brother to a couple of decent performers including $278K earner Rockys First. His lone qualifier makes him a contender here. (4) ROSE RUN RUDI was 2nd to one of the best Grassroots colts last week and could threaten here as these are easier.

Race 9

(6) FRANKLY SPEAKING powered home to win two back which was the only time Waples drove and by far his best performance. That pilot returns here; top call. (3) MUSCLE TIME opened a huge lead last time for his breeder/owner/trainer/driver and held on. He is a threat but unlikely to hold off the choice if that one stays flat. (7) COOL CREEK VICTORY has a win and two thirds in Grassroots competition and is sure-gaited. He can better this placing with some racing luck.

Race 10

(1) RACING HILL broke his maiden in style at The Meadowlands, flying by four rivals late; slight nod in a race where a few look like possible winners. (2) LINDY BEACH was heavily-bet but passively-driven coming off a vet scratch last week and should be much better here. (3) BLAYDE HANOVER is the first starter for a dam that won her first two starts - her debut a 1:53 flat score - and should be included on late pick 4 tickets.

Race 11

(4) COCO LINDY was really motoring late in his mile last week and will likely offer a good price here. This isn't the strongest Preferred field ever assembled; upset special. (8) CATCH THE DREAM is another that can close rapidly in a field that looks loaded with early speed; using. (7) MURMUR HANOVER will be tough if he can duplicate his last effort but he's missed three weeks which is likely not a good sign.

Race 12

(4) MYSTERY BET absolutely coasted by eight rivals in the final 1/4 to win easily last time out. He looks best here too but keep in mind there is also a good chance this erratic trotter will break stride. (2) SECOND SISTER was only a nose short in this class on June 27th when starting from an inside post. She can take this if she has an alert start and lays closer than she did last week. (1) CABERTOSS proved his 52/1 score two back wasn't a fluke by following it up with another strong effort. He should get a big piece of this. (6) STORMONT KATE will likely set the early pace here and can stick around for part of the Super. (9) GAME ON HANOVER will be winding up from far back passing horses late and should make the ticket.

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